RE: Estimated PE2 May 2020 12:35
Yes indeed. It's a shame that there is nothing more quantifiable than 'substantially ahead of (already upwardly) revised consensus' on earnings. Hopefully we will get a further trading update in May. I would estimate that we are looking at something in the region of $800m to $1bn revenue and with a lower user acquisition cost - market volatility is helping to do that for us. This could well translate into around $500mn profit. This gives a minimum of $300m of shareholder returns, or about £2.30 per share (of which at least £1.15 as dividends). Even after Israeli WHT, this is an incredible return and a reasonable minimum for calculations.
While market volatility drives both customer acquisition and activity, i would expect the company to benefit for some time from the expanded customer base even after volatility starts to decrease. Not that volatility is showing any sign of abating: a mooted U- or W-shaped recovery and ongoing volatility in commodities will also benefit us.
Forward PE is ridiculous when you take into account the cash position.