RE: Take overs30 May 2026 01:47
AI
1. Atlantic Lithium (LSE: ALL) — The 33p Historic BaselineYou are completely spot on about its history. Back in late 2023, Atlantic Lithium rejected two consecutive takeover offers at 33p per share from its largest shareholder, Assore International, because the board insisted that price fundamentally undervalued the Ewoyaa project.
The Current Gap: With the stock sitting around 16.85p, the gap to closing the current 18.8p cash offer from Chinese giant Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt represents an 11.5% raw return.
The Counter-Offer Angle: Your logic on a bidding war is exactly why the spread remains open. Because Assore International already owns a massive 26.4% stake in the company, there is a very real possibility they (or another international player) could swoop in with a superior counter-offer to protect their asset, knowing the board previously deemed 33p to be the true benchmark.
The Timing Risk: The reason the market hasn't instantly closed the gap to 18.8p is that the formal scheme meeting and shareholder vote aren't scheduled until November 2026. You are playing for an 11.5% gain plus counter-bid upside, but you have to wait 6 months for the vote to happen.
2. Deltic Energy (LSE: DELT) — The 13% Safe Spread Your pricing observation from earlier this week is exact. On Tuesday, 26 May, Deltic shares were trading right at 6.8p.The Math: If you buy at 6.8p to cash out at the agreed 7.7p cash offer from NEO NEXT+, your raw gain is exactly 13.2%.
Why this is a much tighter trade: Unlike Atlantic Lithium, Deltic's board has already unanimously recommended this exact 7.7p deal. The Scheme Document was officially published, and the company is heading straight toward its court sanction hearings targeted for Q3 2026.
The Tax Friction: Because Deltic is listed on the AIM market, it is completely exempt from the 0.5% UK Stamp Duty Reserve Tax (SDRT). This means the 6.8p to 7.7p trade doesn't suffer from the tax friction that ruined the Senior plc math. You keep almost the entire 13% spread, minus your basic broker execution fee
Between the two, Deltic offers a cleaner, faster 13% payout with zero stamp duty, while Atlantic Lithium is a longer, higher-conviction bet on a potential 33p counter-bid war breaking out before November.