RE: GEX26 Mar 2026 19:12
Share Structure & Dilution Analysis
As of 14 November, the company had 127,593,987 ordinary shares in issue.
A further 2,000,000 shares were sold by CSS Alpha Fund.
Additionally, £500k was taken by GEX, convertible into shares (reportedly at 8p).
However, using my future implied price (~£0.038), this could equate to roughly 13 million shares if converted.
No confirmation of conversion yet, so this is noted but excluded from calculations.
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1. Current Share Count
Estimated current shares in issue:
129,593,987
33.3% of this = 43,193,676 shares
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2. New Shares from CTP (RNS Announcement)
The RNS confirms:
43,193,676 new ordinary shares will be issued to CTP, representing 33.3% of the current issued share capital.
➡️New total shares: 172,787,663
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3. Adjusted Valuation
Current market cap: £6.54m
Adjusted share count: 172,787,663
➡️ Implied share price: ~£0.03785
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4. Ownership Impact
➡️CTP will hold approximately 25% of the enlarged company
➡️Total shares post-issue represent ~133% of the current share base
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5. ATM Facility Impact
The company also references an ATM (At-The-Market) facility:
Potential facility: up to £10m
Expected usage: £2.5m over 5 years, but requesting permission to be able to allot full value ??
➡️Assuming a share price of £0.038:
➡️ This could result in issuing 13,157,895 new shares for £500k
➡️or ~65,789,473 new shares full allotment❗️
Equivalent to ~50% of the current share count (129.6m)
➡️Full would push total shares to approximately 183% of today’s base
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6. Observations / Concerns
The ATM facility is somewhat ambiguous:
The company states possible £10m facility, but only anticipates drawing £2.5m over 5 years (~£500k/year)
Despite this, they are seeking approval now to allot the full £2.5m worth of shares upfront
This raises the question:
➡️ Why request full allotment authority immediately if usage is expected to be gradual?❗️
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Summary:
Significant dilution is already confirmed via the CTP deal (+33.3% shares)
Further dilution is likely via the ATM facility (potentially +50% more)
Additional upside dilution risk exists from convertible instruments (e.g. GEX)
Progress should counter dilution as its still low, but no progess suggests price is going to fall
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Resolution
· allotment of up to £2.5 million New Ordinary Shares pursuant to the entry into an at-the-market equity facility (the "ATM Facility") for the purposes of general working capital over the course of the subsequent five years from the execution of the ATM Facil
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