Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Apologies, wrong link
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W06/744554925
No value on this yet but appeared yesterday:
https://bidstats.uk/analysis/buyers/department-health-social-care
“The exact form of the Procurement will be disclosed at the point of the Contract Notice.As part of national measures to deal with the covid-19 pandemic, DHSC has an ongoing requirement for the supply of substantial volumes of Lateral Flow Testing Kits.It is anticipated that DHSC will be procuring significant volumes over Q1 and/or Q2 2021.The volumes and associated values are to be confirmed in subsequent contract notices.Please note that any Lateral Flow Test must undergo a Validation process performed at Public Health England, Porton Down.”
Thought I would re-post this from the other day - today’s article hasn’t changed my mind.
Just having a look back to the interims presentation by AS and the LFT numbers he talked about, which at the time seemed farfetched but make more sense now following the PA Consulting document.
AS mentioned that governments around the world are aiming for frequent testing with a very specific test. The Uk alone in order to have effective disease control should be testing half the population weekly - 120m tests per month.
He went on to say that the opportunity for Avacta is “determined only by supply capacity”, he “wasn’t bothered in the least about competition”, and that Avacta had “Detailed discussions going on with Government, regulatory authorities and health authorities but they are strictly confidential at this stage”.
He also said that for Avacta themselves to get to this number they would need overseas manufacturing capacity from south east Asia, and that discussions were ongoing.
He estimated that the capacity for BBI/Abingdon at the time was 5-10 million per month but that there was a “significant upscaling that needs to be done within the UK to be able to meet demand”, and “I suspect this can be scaled depending on investment by partners and others (government?) and I believe that could be many tens of millions of tests per month”
A few weeks later on 1st November, PA Consulting began a contract to, amongst other things “deliver initial additional production machines to increase capacity” of UK lft manufacture”. We now know from the PA Consulting document that the aim is for 2 million LFTs per day by April.
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/0e2237f3-e917-4957-9711-6de1c33be75d
so where is that capacity going to come from?
According to the article in the Huffington Post “Much of the anticipation within the industry has centred on new tests devised by British biotech companies Mologic, which has been working with Omega Diagnostics, and Avacta, which has been working with Abingdon and BBI.”
We know that Omega have said they will be able to produce 2 million per week by April,https://twitter.com/omegadiagnostic/status/1356275342286213121?s=21
which leaves another 12 million per week or approx. 50 million per month to find - this seems to fit with AS’s earlier estimate of ‘tens of millions per month’ scaled up UK production.
However, we also know that the PA consulting document was to “Deliver 2M/day LFD tests from UK manufacturing capacity” so this still leaves room for additional overseas manufacturing capacity, assuming that talks between Avacta and SE Asia manufacturers continued as planned, and also assuming the aim is still to use 120 million tests per month.
This of course is just for the UK, so the worldwide demand is incredible.
The last we heard just before Christmas, AS was said to be “very happy indeed” with the test. Happy to wait if it results in
Omega themselves have said 2million per week, not per day.
https://twitter.com/omegadiagnostic/status/1356275342286213121?s=21
Just having a look back to the interims presentation by AS and the LFT numbers he talked about, which at the time seemed farfetched but make more sense now following the PA Consulting document.
AS mentioned that governments around the world are aiming for frequent testing with a very specific test. The Uk alone in order to have effective disease control should be testing half the population weekly - 120m tests per month.
He went on to say that the opportunity for Avacta is “determined only by supply capacity”, he “wasn’t bothered in the least about competition”, and that Avacta had “Detailed discussions going on with Government, regulatory authorities and health authorities but they are strictly confidential at this stage”.
He also said that for Avacta themselves to get to this number they would need overseas manufacturing capacity from south east Asia, and that discussions were ongoing.
He estimated that the capacity for BBI/Abingdon at the time was 5-10 million per month but that there was a “significant upscaling that needs to be done within the UK to be able to meet demand”, and “I suspect this can be scaled depending on investment by partners and others (government?) and I believe that could be many tens of millions of tests per month”
A few weeks later on 1st November, PA Consulting began a contract to, amongst other things “deliver initial additional production machines to increase capacity” of UK lft manufacture”. We now know from the PA Consulting document that the aim is for 2 million LFTs per day by April.
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/0e2237f3-e917-4957-9711-6de1c33be75d
so where is that capacity going to come from?
According to the article in the Huffington Post “Much of the anticipation within the industry has centred on new tests devised by British biotech companies Mologic, which has been working with Omega Diagnostics, and Avacta, which has been working with Abingdon and BBI.”
We know that Omega have said they will be able to produce 2 million per week by April,https://twitter.com/omegadiagnostic/status/1356275342286213121?s=21
which leaves another 12 million per week or approx. 50 million per month to find - this seems to fit with AS’s earlier estimate of ‘tens of millions per month’ scaled up UK production.
However, we also know that the PA consulting document was to “Deliver 2M/day LFD tests from UK manufacturing capacity” so this still leaves room for additional overseas manufacturing capacity, assuming that talks between Avacta and SE Asia manufacturers continued as planned, and also assuming the aim is still to use 120 million tests per month.
This of course is just for the UK, so the worldwide demand is incredible.
The last we heard just before Christmas, AS was said to be “very happy indeed” with the test. Given the stakes I am happy to wait if it results in a gold standard LFT.
‘Industry insiders are expecting that a new competitive tender, to supply 200m tests from mid-February to mid-March, will see British companies get a bigger share than ever before. DHSC said that no decisions had yet been made on the new order.
Yet while UK firms – some of which have been making diagnostics equipment for many years – are poised for the announcement of successful bids in coming weeks, it may take until April for them to start supplying the huge numbers needed by Test and Trace.‘
‘British firms have been quietly preparing to get more work, from making swabs and test cassettes to making mouldings for manufacturing processes. “Tech transfer” agreements are also being struck between firms to allow for mass production.
Much of the anticipation within the industry has centred on new tests devised by British biotech companies Mologic, which has been working with Omega Diagnostics, and Avacta, which has been working with Abingdon and BBI.‘
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/lateral-flow-tests-innova-unreliable-labour-claim-ps1bn-cost_uk_60183274c5b6bde2f5c1d35e
Good point Agent - this article from last April suggested that the likes of AZ and GSK might use their resources to help the UK increase production of diagnostics. A quote from Matt Han**** at the time -
“Our pharmaceutical giants like AstraZeneca and GSK, which have no great history in diagnostics, are now working with our world-leading, but small, diagnostics companies to build a British diagnostics industry at scale,” Han**** said.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-03/gsk-astrazeneca-in-talks-to-help-u-k-government-on-virus-tests
Whilst I share the frustration at the long wait for a LFT, one thing that doesn't seem to be discussed much is the opportunities that a very high accuracy test would present to Avacta, other than selling every test they produce. If they can announce the most accurate LFT on the planet, despite not necessarily being first to market, their affimers would be in demand from other global players such as Roche and Abbotts. Al hinted at discussions on this in the previous presentation.
I was watching CNN this morning and their guest scientist was bemoaning the fact that the rapid tests they have in the US are just not accurate enough. The income from Avacta potentially licensing out affimers for diagnostics could be huge and is one of the reasons I am happy to wait patiently for the best test they can produce.
They seem to have assumed a current capacity of approx. 100 million per year -
“ Avacta, however, has established supply agreements with BBI Solutions and Abingdon Health in the UK, each of which are said to have the ability to produce several million tests per month (i.e. c.100m tests per annum). Avacta is in the process of putting in place large-scale contract manufacturing partners and is in discussion with other OEMs to expand the commercial opportunity further.‘
White house takes away FDA authority to regulate covid tests. Possibly means faster to market but more low quality competition?
https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1296875997871120392?s=21