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Mate - please just hit 'reply' under a post - thanks

I am afraid macro > fundamental currently.

Today, yield curves move down, GROW is up. Classic.

Another day where volume bought > sell but GROW is down... culprit: curve move... bonds (Gilt and UST) started to puke at the US open..

Again, nothing fundamental, just cross asset correlations.

STRONG BUY

Surprising to see the muted share price reaction!

The deal is not even priced in as the stock is down 12% since 17th January when it was initially announced.

STRONG BUY

From a broker:

What do we know:

•Review has not been started or finalised, likely to happen "by the end of the year".

•Involves private market valuations in the UK.

•Reasoning being that higher costs of borrowing could lead to corrections in the valuations of private assets. One comment in the article mentions the frequency in which private assets are valued

•Goal appears to assess vulnerabilities on how we look at private market valuations, looking at "disciplines and governance"

How could it look for the sector?

•Recently US regulators imposed tougher disclosure rules on private funds, which could provide an insight of what could come from any potential investigation in the UK.

•The SEC decided in August 2023 to require PE, VC and HFs to provide investors with 1) detailed quarterly reports on performance; and 2) increased disclosure on expenses.

How does it affect listed P/E and VC such as GROW LN (molten)?

•At present, we don’t know too much of the scope of investigation, and given it hasn't been finalised it is too early to assess

•However, should it be on valuations, this could be positive for Molten, given investor concerns regarding valuations (evident by the 72% discount to last reported NAV). At present, Molten provides 2 NAV updates per annum (at interims and FY results + 2 trading updates for these)

•As such, further transparency on valuations could be a positive for the listed VC sector

Meh... I 'd prefer ZOO as VID keeps a high risk of equity issuance due to its debt/leverage which is clearly now a problem. I'll buy post issuance/refi. Meanwhile, I'll stay on the sideline. I guess today's share price action says a lot, the uncertainty on the name outweighs the writer strike resolution .

Bonds behaving today (yield down) thus GROW is up. STRONG BUY

Mate no need to go as far as 1971 rates at 7% but yeh strong buy at current level

Another point I have been noticing, although not a perfect science, but again today, 2x more BUY volume than SELL but the share price is down. Correlation and curve risk off move impacting the share price. That’s all. Nothing fundamental in my view. Let’s gooooo

It’s all about rates and where they go as these are used as discount rates when calculating NAV. More precisely real rates. Moreover, Higher real rates mean lower opportunity cost to risk capital in VC.

All in all, we want lower real rate. Unfortunately - we have seen an aggressive derating in the yield curve over the last few sessions. But guys- don’t forget , the worst is behind us. Keep calm and accumulate 😎

I think today's volatility is driven by the warning from Videndum. Imo, ZOO is a buy at this level as it discounts a lot.

Agreed with you Steph.

Atm, I think the volatility in 10s yield is resulting in downside pressure for Grow.

However, we've came a long way and most of the pain has been felt.

My model shows US10 peaking at 4.5-4.75 so we are close to fair value imo.

Again, for long term investors, this is a tremendous opportunity - let's f- go!

Should alleviate some headwinds to the story...

Should alleviate some headwinds to the story...

Nothing - look at the tape, someone was exiting a large position throughout the day. When there is no liquidity and trading is messy, this is what happens. STRONG BUY

Agreed with steph - now is the painful moment where mental strength is being tested which is also the best moment to invest. Positive real rate over a longer period are unsustainable. All eyes on the job markets which so far remains tight but cracks start to appear. 2H24 will see the first cuts, I expect 25 to 50bps at best. 25 will be a different ball game.

Anyway, sounding redundant but any math GCSE can understand that such discount to NAV, even in a new regime is irrational. When the rally kicks in, potentially when risk free rate stabilise, it will take no prisoners - Let's go - STRONG BUY

Yeah you should buy now rather than wait - accumulate now the way up will be quick at first !

Non sense - tape looks fine - being caught by US tech beta - buy the f- dip

Pause at the Fed, Pause at the BoE, ECM markets volume picking up over the last few months, rate landscape will stabilise and inflation fall.

All in all, the irrational discount in GROW will now start to close. tally oh!

Purist will say it's not a like for like but still give some sentiment in the private asset market