The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I estimate Q1 organic growth to be 12.6%. Yes a slowdown but consensus only forecast high single digit CAGR over the next 5yr. So the pull back is just wrong.
Monty - reported profitability for the year end has been confirmed in this morning AGM call.
gg- your post should be pined on every chat room of this website ahaha
Anyway CNIC is a huge buy.
Regarding gross profit and gross profit margin. CNIC works with several media buyers, publishers, and advertisers like Google, resulting in significant pass-through-costs therefore it's more accurate to look at EBITDA / Gross Profit rather than just Gross Profit Margin (Gross profile / Revenue). For FY23 I forecast 48.2% (FY22: 48.4%) this compares to a peer group median of 43% and average of 44%. Thus CNIC is better.
Regarding the NED selling - keep cool - nothing to read here.
• He still holds 15.5m shares or > 5% of the company!
• His holding are back from an original investment in 2003, pre-IPO, so an he has a proven tracl record of backing CNIC and can’t be blamed for some occasional trimming here and there. He also sold a chunk in 2021 and few small sales in 2020 but that's all.
CNIC remains a cash generative machine - FCF is what matters.
My base is for FCF 5yr CAGR to be 10%.
At less than 8x fwd EPS - it's a steal.
The OM model is vertically integrated which gives it flexibility.
CEO expects a 20%+ CAGR for OM revenue over the next 5yr.
BUY!
Exactly
cruncing numbers will show that without the impairment - CNIC would have break even. Next year CNIC will be profitable on a reported basis.
Talking with executive, OP medium term CAGR is "high single digit" and OM is 20% !
The gross profile and cash generation of this company is incredible. Yes, margin are not sector leading, but what matters is the FCF generation and it's huge. On my numbers CNIC trades on a 9% FCF yield with a 3yr forward FCCF CAGR 10%.
CNIC IS WAY TOO CHEAP.
Strong growth across the board, some margin erosion but this is the trade off for growth.
Organic metrics grow double digit, margins remain super healthy, even on a reported basis with Net Income margin coming at 18%! Cash conversion reduced a bit to 79% but still remains very strong imo.
Outlook is strong, FY 22 momentum “has accelerated during Q1 2023”, with three record revenue months, absolute revenue growth of 52% and underlying organic revenue growth of 19%, a “Strong pipeline for the remainder of FY 23”. Management note they are upgrading FY23 expectations to £85m-£90m revenue (FactSet consensus yesterday was £86m) at an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 28-30%.
Valuation: undemanding with 15x fwd P/E, EV/EBITDA 9x ; uwarranted discount to peer group, it's a bout time this stock rerate... STRONG BUY
yep - same here - always thought that if the business momentum was not improving past 2023 I'd give up. Upward and onward now
profitable and positive cash flow - fantastic -
and sold chunky lots... panic selling
19% discount - TURBO BUY
I have been long and lost money due to these crooks.
This take over rumour is a deja-vu to stop the share price haemorrhage.
If TRMR was really serious, insiders would not continuously sell shares. Pulling out a chart of insider transactions is shocking. TRMR is used as a cash cow. I do hope all their option expire worthless.
I believe that playing TRMR as a 'special sit' stock is dangerous until the board is OUSTED.
Fwiw - In English, "tremor" means either "trembling of body" or "small earthquake". It was all written on the tin.
STRONG SELL
If you wonder here is an explanation. Nothing dodgy.
The $16.9m tax charge for FY22 seems high in relation to $14.8m PBT, but a material portion of CNIC's administrative expenses - namely foreign exchange gains/losses, share-based payment expenses and the bulk of amortisation and impairment of intangible assets - are not tax deductible in almost all jurisdictions in which we operate. As such, a more realistic effective tax rate should be derived by dividing the tax charge by EBITDA excluding FX and share-based payment expenses, which is (AEBITDA $86.0m minus Non-core opex $8.2m =) $77.8m. 16.9 / 77.8 = 21.7%, which is a more meaningful ETR, even before we get into breakdowns of PBT per jurisdiction.