Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
there is a thin line between being balanced and realist in a market where growth/expensive stocks are being punished. See what can a style rotation do to a "good business": -38% ytd.
After listening the preso, I will reiterate my view: down until the next trading update c. mid September.
SEE YOU LOWER.
• a very lukewarm update for such an expansive stock
• a gloomy outlook "We do expect the advertising market to be further tested by the economic downturn and we are seeing a softening in advertiser demand for Q3 2022 as lower consumer spending impacts the confidence of brands in the space."
• overly greedy management: $2.3m of share based payment
• view: going down until the next trading update in mid September
fwd P/E 56x still too high.
up
people that can't bother reading the RNS should be allowed to comment...
strong buy
strong BUY:
- business is delivering
- structural tailwind drivers as highlighted by the recent jumbo contract
- positive outlook
yoy gowth: strong across the board
Revenue: 78.9%
EBITDA: 138.4%
NI: 98.2%
EPS: 99.4%
OCF: -137.5%
clearly cash generation is the only negative.
looking at note 28. Cash used in operations, the main detractors were:
- Exceptional items => - Transaction (gain) relating to Capital Reduction and spin out (note 39) => one off
- Change in working capital mix: the decrease in trade payables which should prove a short term issue and is part of the way a business passes.
- R&D: doubled, would be nice to clarify with management a certain guidance on future R&D spend
=> all in all, 2/3 detractors to cash generation are transitory.
yoy margin change:
EBITDA: 48%
NIM: 50%
OCF margin: -24%
Cash Conversion: + 1%
Outlook: positive
"As at 1 June 2022, Open Orphan had an order book of signed contracts worth £64.2m which is expected to be recognised across 2022, 2023 and 2024. These developments reaffirm the Board's expectations of a profitable growing business with revenues in the region of £50m in 2022.The Group is now well positioned and well capitalised to deliver sustainable long-term profitability."
expensive.
Yep - and these multiples are freaking high!
gallder, yes EPS are in cents because the price is in cents too.
Price = 1,262.5
FY22 EPS = 20.7 so P/E = 61x
FY23 EPS = 33 so P/E = 38x
in a rising rate / inflationary environment such multiples are discounting a lot of growth. Period.
Valuations remain sky high. The stock already discounts a hell of a lot of growth. Base case, the stock flat line as valuation multiples compress (lead by stronger EPS growth). Worst case, stock derate fast and multiples mean revert, mostly led by a falling share price. Best case: TAke over at a premium.
Lmao
What are your P/E ? Lmao
posse - 78x is the 12m fwd P/E in bloomberg terminal as of today's close. thanks for playing.
Cheap - strong outlook - under the radar - LETS GOOOO
80x 12m forward P/E is sky high, regardless how you look at it… ?????
Valuations remain sky high. The stock already discounts a hell of a lot of growth. Base case, the stock flat line as valuation multiples compress (lead by stronger EPS growth). Worst case, stock derate fast and multiples mean revert, mostly led by a falling share price. Best case: TAke over at a premium.
I have personally sold a lot based on valuation but Keep a tail exposure. ;)
doggy - gotcha, if you are OW the share, i'd trim too. Their greeds is a **** take
basically the 16m stock based comp' is a killer.
we should all give them fire at the next investor call...