The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Lots of uncertainty around COPL at the moment and no good news.
Those would be among the reasons why we are rangebound.
For those in the know we are aware that CUDA resolution is coming and following that production figures should improve as the company takes the brakes off its upgrade programme.
Those opinions are based on RNSd facts or publicly available info from the reciever.
For a pure ramp, week actually a gut feeling I'm going to say I don't be surprised if Art has sold 23% out to a major who took the CUDA %. Ramptastic you might say. Well I would say to you..
Oil companies rich in cash this year
Looking for onshore reserves - oh look we found one but no-one can quite believe it.
Little unloved minor owned by crafty oiler who will do a deal but only at the right price.
Buyout 23% for controlling interest @ $500m dollars (because just buying Cuda would result in writing with a most unhelpful and obstructive operator)
Special dividend of £1, rest goes to help develop our 25% interest price goes to £4.
As one of posters used to say if Carlsberg made RNSs
Not long to wait now friends.
The facts are that one way or another we are approaching the resolution of CUDA with no visible downside.
Large discoveries have been made indicating tremendous possible upside.
Increasing production has been problematic but small increase in most recent figures should be the beginning of a trend which sharply increases need on publicly available information.
Globally the world has woken up to the need to support current oil requirements.
I don't see why anyone would waste their life posting opinions on here simply accusing others of having an opinion for being upbeat about their investment here?
Unless of course you have an agenda and of course you do.
Bullet point history of COPL:
Lot of exploration.
Bad luck.
Loss of confidence in future of company.
Value collapses.
Deal making CEO rescues company from the brink.
CEO pumps prospects to keep company alive.
People buy in expecting Nigeria to happen.
It doesn't.
CEO buys into distressed asset by borrowing/raising from anyone who will get involved
Deal goes Pete Tong and takes forever to ratify. CEO, his daughter and small number of associates get bogged down in massive admin burden. Takes forever.
Company comes back with big promises of big payday around the corner.
Pump their cash into the asset (literally using butane to stimulate.)
Not as easy to get working as first thought.
Meanwhile initials works produce surprising evidence of MASSIVE AMOUNT OF OIL
While this is happening, partner goes insolvent
law suit against partner to further interests of COPL
Radio silence begins to fall - presumably to further interests of COPL
RNS confirmation of HUGE AMOUNT OF AIL DISCOVERED
Not spending any more money until insolvency resolved - presumably to further interest of COPL
Insolvency resolved likely next 5-60 days
Massive upside.
Global fuel crisis.
Political landscape points towards desire by USA to scale up onshore production.
Terrible trajedy in Ukraine sends markets haywire.
We wait.
Buffet like in our stillness.
Traders trade.
Pray for Ukraine.
Wait for excellent returns here.
Know we won't get caught out trying to get 5% when we all know Art will do everything in his power
to lock out the traders.
Once the market starts to look forward again this will come good. It's clear that within the AIM market right now people are protecting their capital and not taking risk. That's a temporary issue.
Long term this company is worth just as much in 2 years as it would be if today's price was £1.
None of us can know if in 1 month things will change and the price then reflects the value in 1-2 years.
Good value for a new position though.
All good guys production issues will be resolved.
Whatever the outcome CUDA resolution will see us moving forward with more certainty.
Onshore US oil production will be prioritised for future energy confidence.
Patience needed. Still check at 7am every day though lol
It's easy in all of the frenzy to forget that spikes due to tragic circumstances cannot be the main influence in setting a business plan. Hedging seemed very sensible last year and it will do again soon. What would surprise me is if there isn't a lot of activity going on behind NDAs
and JV discussions to get as much of our our already proven and new discovery oil out of the ground within months as humanly possible.
All that we can estimate is that something is playing out in the background. The RNS re the discovery was very clear and confident. It's a matter of time before we find out about CUDA but the real deal will be hitting 5k production and or JV. We aren't going to know until the day news drops but what a position this little company is in.
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/AllOpcoProd.cfm?oops=ID31732&RequestTimeOut=65000&nOpco=1769
Following this share has been a very good experience. I am sure that I'm not the only one who got into hands on investing over lockdown. A valuable lesson that I have learned is that old chestnut patience.
If at some point the fundamentals here change there are reasons for concern but there seem to be several scenarios that are possible
1) Production has been choked/withheld/contained to create the best conditions for Cuda buyout
2) Getting to full production by miscible flooding has been problematic. Lots of learning being done by the team. Different strategies and infrastructure required to take the brakes off.
3) There is no oil.
Clearly 3 is not an issue. 1 should become evident in weeks/months. 2 is ongoing and our CEO said that he is very happy with production and response to MF in January interview. Therefore that should happen this year.
I actually think this is a very low risk investment with great upside. Literally none of our potential good news is priced in. I think the traders here are very skilled - its their livelyhood after all and I respect that they are making a living.
I'm happy to wait years. I have approx 15 years to retirement. If this company increases in value by 15x over those 15 years I will have a very comfortable retirement. I think that is realistic, maybe even in the next 24 months. I certainly think in the current global situation this is a relativelty safe haven with little downside because it is so unloved.