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Maybe it was always the case but I used to really enjoy this board chatting with the good folks here (you know who you are.) Now it has been so infested with traders just deliberately baiting investors that it's hard to have a conversation without it being highjacked by someone who has bought in at 17p and I trying (undertstandably!) to make a few grand a week out of the uncertainty around the company which has blindingly good fundamentals.
I hope that Art puts this all to an end soon. It would be fantastic if today was the day that RBL is announced and production is increasing.
Until that happens the sharks will smell blood.
The webinar will be fine I think. He must have some good news to share. And anyone who is frustrated, like myself, will have cooled off by then.
But I don't want to be insulted. So please don't use the word unsophisticated to describe me as an investor. Instead, talk about drills, contracts and bopd.
That's what makes the RBL so vital. It will fund development now and provide further flexible finance for the future. Until it arrives Art is very limited in financing that doesn't involve further equity at discount which is immediately sold of and depresses the share value.
That's explains it. No matter wht good news we get the use of equity as free money drives down shareholder value. I do understand the need for it and I believe that long term the company will make good profit.
But will my investment be worth anything as Art gives away parts of the company again and again with no reward?
Maybe he wil suprise us all with production improving and finance sorted today. If he doesn't perhaps rather than focusing on the nuances of private investing psychology he might focus on those two things.
Yes I know placings and warrants have been necessary. Yes, I am responding emotionally and not rationally.
That's called sentiment and it matters.
Lots of warrants floating around and being cashed in. It's been the problem since relisting and before. Hard to turn a 2m near bankrupt company (2 years ago) with nothing but an unwilling partner into a mid cap.
But that is what is happening. Lots of people going to take their piece of pie on the way up.
I do sympathise AJEP. I'm in a similar boat.
Part of the issue is the amount of debt that Art has entered into. The root cause of the problems is that Art didn't increase production in in 2021 as he promised would happen and we went from expecting to be self funding to burning cash. Then buying CUDA has put everything on hold (little effort to increase production for last 6-9 months) while we borrowed more to get more cash to cover that cost and the cost of carrying a bankrupt partner.
Now that is completed it is time for the team to really show their skills and get oil out of the ground.
Having said that we are now going to be in the sights of a major or two. What do I know about what will happen?
I would imagine a lot of traders are taking profits and why not? This share has been a goldmine for those skilled enough to farm 5-25% many times.
Once those shares move over into the possession of those who are willing to wait a year or two as the company develops we will begin to see a steady rise, especially if someone decides to move in for a takeover.
The discovery is huge for us and no doubt will contribute to the RBL approval.
A lot of posters have mentioned the debt. I see it like this.
A house is worth £200k
You get it for £160 in a recession. Right now it would still only sell for £160k. Give it a few years and it will go beyond the 200k in value, especially with some remedial work. Yes you owe the bank £160k but the future value makes that borrowing sound .
Oh an by the way you find after some checking of the deeds there is 100 acres of prime development land noone knew about and you house and land is worth millions.
It's three things - the debt and the production.
Along with a very depressed small cap market.
Once the first two show signs of improving we will start to get somewhere and then a livelier market could see the whole thing motor on ahead.
Finally the week has arrived for the Ryder Scott report.
Confirmation of the resource size will add further weight to the view that this is a company undergoing a massive transformation. I am also sure that remedial upgrades will be done as quickly as possible now that a funder is on place.
Also an operational report should show the difference that the CUDA monies make to the bottom line. I wonder were they being held and are now released?
Lots to be positive about if you are not afraid of the risk, which is constantly reducing.
The price will either rise, fall or stay the same. All we can know for sure is that owning CUDA, having finance and the resource report make the company very attractive. We now just need Art and the team to get the oil out of the ground. Hopefully with the financials in place this can happen sooner rather than later. Art will be well aware of the potential for a low ball takeover bid and the lack of goodwill from sizeable PI investors who will happily take a bid around £1 a share.
We all know that CUDA wasn't free and Art didn't have the money to pay cash for it.
But this is how businesses grow by borrowing and acquiring and developing. We have now completed the acquisition. We will soon have funding complete to develop.
And there may be 10x (rough guesstimate) the original resources recoverable when developed. This to be confirmed next week
Looks good on paper as an investment.
There's a word that we have heard a lot of over the years but here it is. CUDA ownership balances the books and opens the door to no more placements and proper funding.
But we are in the grip of app traders who can sell the very moment they earn 5% and they will continue to do so. Until the day when some serious operators decide to take a good chunk of this company and they are forced to trade in a different range.
It could happen in Dec. It could happen in 5 mins. Let's just see.
wookie I share your thoughts.
I think that the financing was to be expected. The fact that it allows for the RBL is good. The 20% + drop on Friday was devastating. Not just because it's a blip but because it sets a lower base for the coming good news to impact.
I think that there are very many posters on here who are making money from trading, who are getting excited about 30p as a price and will happily sell down every rise. Because of this, and the dilution from the inevitable warrants, I feel that the timelines here have moved out considerably to get to my £1 target.
That won't stop us getting to 50p + but I could have sold out the day of relisting to get that. I just hope Art pulls a blinder over the next six months and produces some real value for us LTH.