RE: Fantasist3 Nov 2020 12:04
I’d take a stab at this and say that the JV completion announcement had propped up the SP slightly, add in the ‘support package’ in place from the government towards hospitality for the the next month, (which covers November which is usually pretty crap in pubs) regardless of the long term prospects Carlsberg and Marstons together should weather the storm.
Just look at the other chains/pub company’s: restaurant group, wetherspoons, M&B and to a certain extent Whitbread.. all holding stable in their SP even with a national lockdown due in less than 72 hours!
I think the next few weeks will be a bit of a rollercoaster.. I’m hoping to top up if there is a dip of 5p or more.. even if Mars dips to 20-30p in the next couple of weeks, it will more than likely bounce.
Pubs in general will suffer through this lockdown but a ‘proper’ lockdown is more financially stable than the 3 tier system which is put on hold tomorrow night.
God knows what he’s blabbing on about cattle and tents for?!
One thing to note is that the entire pub industry is selling off their open (and likely to expire) booze dirt cheap over the bar in an effort to reduce wastage, most keg lager and cider in cellars across circa 40,000 Uk pubs has Best before dates that go through to February/March next year, real ale/cask ale is generally stocked to allow a week or so in the cellar and any savvy landlords will have sold this by Wednesday night..
If brewers were on the ball they will have halted manufacturing and switched any liquids that are in production to longer life by filling bottles.
There shouldn’t be much waste, there might not be any profit generated for a month but the cash burn during downtime shouldn’t really be anywhere near the 1st lockdown. I’m thinking of this as more like a holiday than anything else, quite a stressful one but at least there is (supposed to be) an end date to it.
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