Member Info for d200

So if we have 400 million in the bank and say 1.5 million of milestone payments you think thsi would be valued at 200 million

bear in mind you are stating 400million in the bank is worth 200 million here?

Yes but if we got 400million upfront that would justify £1+ per share. Still holding all of mine prety much accepting I'll hold for glory or bust.

Looking at recent trends weve had tow periods of 100% jumps followed by consolidation 2.5p to 5pp, consolidate, 5p to 10p consolidate

we could be looking at the start of the jump to 20p here

Actually yes - i did my maths wrong - i stand corrected

If you read the full announcement existing shareholders will be diluted down to 3% of the enlarged company when they issue the shares to raise the 1 billion. so you could argue they are now overpriced

Still got all my 1.817 million at 2.1p average. life changing opportunity worth holding and taking the risk

Avacta mcap been as high as circa 300million this year with one candidate phase 1 and 1 associated on e preclinical

if we make a comparison i think we can easily justify a similar mcap 200-300m (40-60p price range) pre deal.

Anyone know the shares in issue then - be good if we had a market cap vs time chart on here

Thats my thought - i dont see 30% though - that feels too high - maybe upfront payment plus 10% of deal total?

Yea I'm not saying the deal will be 1bn - could be more could be less could be not at all. I'm just wondering how we get to a fair price ratio to the deal itself. personally if a deal comes i don't want to hold the stock for another 5 years waiting to hit the milestones and release of product etc - id want to be out in the next 12 months

Now here's the bit I'm wondering. if we get a deal (and yes its an if) what would you value the share at. do we value the share at about the price of the upfront element or add in some level of premium for the total deal value e.g. imagine deal at 100m upfront and total deal of 1billion - do we say the share is worth 20p as thats the upfront element - or somewhere like 20p plus a premium based on the total deal value e.g. 30p, 40p etc.???

Why would someone with 75K invested constantly talk a share down???

At the end of the day its all just banter on a bulletin board thats pretty irrelevant.

I'm sticking with my 1.8M shares at an average of 2.2p

Right just to make it crystal clear to anyone arguing that because we are pre phase 3 completion that this isn't worth anything - please see attached a selection of last years deals;

Total S$2900 M ; Upfront US$1000 M - PTC Therapeutics, Novartis PTC518 for Huntington’s disease - development Phase II

Total deal US$3288 M, upfront US$588 M - LaNova Medicines, Merck & Co. LM-299, a programmed cell death protein 1/vascular endothelial growth factor bispecific antibody Phase I

Total deal US$12815 M, Upfront US$500 M - Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Sarepta Therapeutics siRNA-based treatments for muscle, central nervous system, and rare pulmonary disorders Preclinical; Discovery; Phase I/II

Total deal US$1310 M upfront US$200 M - Keros Therapeutics, Takeda Elritercept (KER-050), a treatment for anemia in hematologic cancers Phase II

My main point being however that the company is not just valued when all trial shave passed, FDA approved, on the market etc

Try this:

https://www.drugpatentwatch.com/blog/valuation-of-pharma-companies-5-key-considerations/

So in my opinion currently on no further news we should be sat around 20-25p and on any deals could range from 50 to 150p is where I see it.

I feel there's two separate point and a basic misunderstanding of how pharma is valued at different stages.

Big pharma are shying away from their own drug discovery toa certain extent due to high failure rate and massive discovery and development costs. therefore its more cost effective to licence or buy out discoveries in various stages of development. Pretty straightforward. The valuation is based on the development stage vs the potential market value. The market value is taken e.g. multi billions, and then numerous discounting factors are applied to accounts for the risks of progressing through each development stage. so a licence or buyout can occur anywhere from preclinical to an on market drug. If the drug is launched i.e. the company is selling say 1 billion a year then for large molecule pharma you'd probably be looking at a valuation at around 12 x earning so say 12 billion plus a buyout premium lets say 30% and end up selling the company for 15 billion. this is the type of thing you are talking about when you say the phase 3 trials need to be finished FDA approval etc. preclinical obviously has lot of discounting so you might end up with say 5-20 million upfront then several hundred million in milestone payments. We are stage 3 ready so i would say we are in the 50million plus upfront plus hundreds of millions to several billion in milestones. takeout price at current stage i would guess is £300-700 million

Blatant lie - failure rate of phase 3 is 40-50%. Also the recent breakthrough allows targeting so increases success chance and is also valuable intellectual property in its own right

So you are in exactly the same position as me. there are risks otherwise it would be free money - but if we are taken over 60p is perfectly reasonable. the point then becomes what you think are the percentage chances of that happening and timeframe and then assess if you take the money and run or hold on.