Member Info for cyberduck

good morning to you too :)

Terrace, There are always risks. I know one investor who told me they would sell if the CEO left. Al life is very fragile. What about the GreyStar deal? That's not done & dusted. Can they pull out still? What about raising finance if the london market looks bad and BTR investors decide to delay?

>just ordering on ebay a book on better keyboard skills Make sure you order the right book. With fingers like that you might get one on cookery.

What's the average property price in London and nationally excluding London? I'm thinking that the benefit is greater for properties outside London. Looking at Countryside's results, they have deliberately reduced the average price of their properties by 8% to �430K, yet their SP has not risen on the news.

Correction: I'm seeing 27 Agents. Can't add up :)

>Unless they have taken over 150 which isn't a big ask there will be a big question mark hanging I'm not seeing that sort of listing but the interesting number will be the number of buyers they have attracted with their $1000 cashback payment on closing. The buying commission is typically 3% and the average price around $560K. So with selling being a flat fee of $3200 acting as buying agent is a lot more lucrative. I see 49 active (includes under offer) listings for PB agents in the USA after 2 months. There are perhaps some completed properties but I don't get the feeling there are too many of them. Oz after 1 month had about 50 and after 3 months about 240 listings. I'm not sure how many after 2 months. The average fee is slightly higher in Oz because they earn more for auctions than the base 4500 Oz dollars. I'm seeing 32 Agents in the US. On 15th September PB started with 30 and said "Recruitment is continuing at pace, with the aim to have around 50 LREEs in the market within weeks"

Milly, some dodgy maths there 43 + 67 = 110 If only 43% of customers have failed to sell and the number of customers in the last two and a half years is around 80,000 then why are there so few bad reviews on TrustPilot? Yes, you might be asked to verify you are a customer and this might put some valid customers off but even if you look at the 19,000 customers between two and a half and one and a half years ago 54% is over 9000 customers. Wouldn't you expect more negative reviews?

Correction, not bull market, bear market :)

Sold half of my holdings (RDW & TEF) last week before the bulk of the recent drops and the other half this morning. Looks like a typical bull market to me. I was tempted to hold onto my TEF but I don't see the market liking the interim statement. Worried about the lack of sales of the 3-bed apartments at Bermondsey and the general uncertainty which prevails. Hoping to buy back in at a lower price but I do make bad decisions from time to time. I won't feel any shame if I've got it wrong :)

I have been cautious in regard to investing in PB for a while now and this has partly been because of my concern that there could be some negativity on publication of sales conversion figures for PB. Not necessarily the actual conversion figures but the spin put on the figures by traditional Estate Agents & a particular Analyst. Jefferies are due to announce their findings in regard to a year long analysis of listings on Rightmove (if my information is correct) . One traditional Agent who is very vocal in regard to PB is Chris Wood and I follow his tweets to see what he is saying. There was a tweet this morning https://twitter.com/PDQProperty where he's claiming that the average listing price for a traditional agent is �300. I could be wrong but if that's the case this is excellent news for PB. This would mean that for every 10 properties listed with a traditional agent the traditional Agent earns �3000 which if my understanding is correct means that they effectively sell only 1 in 10 of their listings as the average commission is somewhere around �3000. This can't be right can it? Anybody see anything wrong with my thinking?

Terrace, Looking back to 21/8/2009, if you'd bought at 92p then you would have seen your share price drop to 60p 2 years later. There was no dividend in 2009 and then just 2p and 2.5p in 2010 and 2011. So perhaps the best strategy is holding cash for a couple of years. Is there not a concern that TEF will be able to raise finance if confidence in the sector is low? Will they be able to attract BTR partners and if so can the profit margins be maintained? Forward sales for 2018 are good but are they achieving forecast prices on the properties that aren't forward sold? 2019 forward sales were less good and the same question arises in regard to achieving forecast prices on the properties that aren't already sold.

I was just reading the comments on a Times article from the other day https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/purplebricks-finds-that-no-news-is-good-news-2hcv5fc79 and saw a comment by a Simon Shinerock which is interesting. I then found an article by the same guy dating back to January 2017 https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/industry-views/2017/1/seek-and-ye-shall-find Both suggest difficulties for PB in a tough market and is worth thinking about in my opinion. There are of course some big differences between now and 1988, most notably that nearly all sales now originate via a property portal. Also the scale of advertising by PurpleBricks. In neither commentary does he mention what happened to Seekers which is odd.

The number of listings certainly seems to be in line with the companies estimates of a near 100% increase in UK turnover. This is based on information provided by Sain in regard to November 2016 which he said was around the 2000 mark if I remember correctly.

Pre-Close Trading Statement On-course for the full year Purplebricks Group plc ('Purplebricks' or 'the Group'), the leading hybrid estate agency, confirms that following the closing of the first half of the financial year, it remains on course to meet the board's expectations for the full year. See http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=PURP&ArticleCode=bhoh1se2&ArticleHeadline=PreClose_Trading_Statement So still looking at turnover of �80M in the UK and �12M in Oz for the full year. Marketing spend in H1 was estimated to increase by �3.5M (increase of approx 50% on H1 2017) with a further increase in the second half. So working on the 56% gross profit margin from the 2017 financial year gross profit for the UK should be �44.8M. Assuming the same admin expenses (�9.6M) and a 50% increase in marketing costs to approx �21M, the UK should be looking at an operational profit of about �15M. From memory I seem to recall the �50M raised for the US was expected to last 2 years so losses in the US will be significant after about 7 months worth of advertising and admin costs. Oz will also be loss making.if the 46% profit margin is maintained on the �12M of turnover and the 2017 marketing and admin costs are greater than the �7.7M from 2017 which was i think from about 8 months of trading. I'm guesstimating at about �4M loss for Oz. Back in March Jefferies promised to release sales conversion figures later in the year for PB and the other large agents: "�We have details of every property listed on Rightmove since November 2016 and will track all of those properties through to the Land Registry database during 2017. �We hope this will definitely prove which agents are most effective at selling homes. We are also tracking the price of homes from initial listing to completed sale, and the time taken to sell.� I think I was told this would be in November but I could be wrong there. Interesting times :)

I'm coming up with an approximate figure of 32500 listings for H1 in the UK. Guidance for the UK from the company for the full year is turnover of �80M which at an average of �1035 per instruction is about 77,300 listings for the year. H2 revenue for 2017 was about 35% up on H1 so if that is replicated the target is achievable. However in September 2016 there was a price increase from about �800 to �850. So for me, the business is doing well but it's going to be tough to meet projections. �12M turnover for Oz also looks like a tough ask based on my current figures. I'm not as confident of my approximations for Oz though.

Borrow more? We still have a yearly deficit after years of cutbacks. http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/ Somebody needs to raise taxes but they're all too scared.

I'm not 100% sure. I doubt there will be any guarantees other than to say they'll trade after any limit has been reached. If it's a matter of the marketmakers dropping the price 30% then I guess they'll trade at the new price. If there's a gradual decline then you're more likely to trade at the limit you set. Like I say, I'm not 100% sure.

Yes, I saw it. 2 trades of of 6248 shares went through the system I use for looking at trades at a price of 261.5p at 09:24. This was probably a single trade as I've seen them appear twice before. I'm not convinced it was actually a valid trade. When I saw it I was looking around for a news article :)

I make it 16 listings as of today: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7501-Alpine-Way-Tujunga-CA-91042/20092717_zpid/ http://www.movoto.com/eastvale-ca/6432-high-country-cir-eastvale-ca-92880-202_ig17224203/for-sale/ https://www.redfin.com/CA/Dana-Point/33392-Sea-Bright-Dr-92629/home/4963785 https://www.redfin.com/CA/Laguna-Beach/2870-Zell-Dr-92651/home/4886208 http://www.estately.com/listings/info/4630-paseo-maravilla https://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Barbara/4344-Modoc-Rd-93110/unit-16/home/21584181 https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1201-N-Van-Ness-Ave-Santa-Ana-CA-92701/25445669_zpid/ https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/20187-Yucca-Loma-Rd_Apple-Valley_CA_92307_M13064-75575 https://www.redfin.com/CA/Murrieta/25926-Summer-Hill-Ct-92563/home/6356601 https://www.estately.com/listings/info/1619-via-modena-way https://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Clarita/28425-Steel-Ln-91354/home/40487607 https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/los-angeles/5225-loleta-ave/pid_20296367/ http://www.remax.com/realestatehomesforsale/3210-connors-drive-perris-ca-92571-gid100009952918.html https://www.redfin.com/CA/Lakewood/2719-Fairman-St-90712/home/7535656 https://www.redfin.com/CA/Lake-Elsinore/33616-Landerville-Blvd-92530/home/5402611 https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/3158-Hutton-Dr_Beverly-Hills_CA_90210_M11139-63752 2870 in Oz since August 2016 at a minimum of $4500 each.

>Maybe one of those large scale projects is one with TEF Surely they would have said in the trading update if it was.