Member Info for cyberduck

CRST also complaining about building costs but BWY not mentioned anything as far as I can see from a quick look. Looks to me like CRST's management got a bit carried away with meeting their turnover forecasts and took their eye off the ball. They now say they are targeting lower priced homes and are looking to address build cost inflation. With shorter development times than TEF it shouldn't take long to put things right but how long will the market hold their failure against them? Perhaps rightly so if the management are making bad decisions. "On May 21st, the business announced to staff its intention to re-shape our divisional structure, by closing our Central London office and re-opening a South-East Division, based in Kent. Each of the four regional businesses around London will have the remit to address outer-London opportunities as they arise, whilst also having a portfolio of sites across their wider geography as a core underpin for their business. This approach will enable Crest Nicholson to continue to serve the London market where suitable opportunities arise, but provide the flexibility to reduce reliance on London volumes where conditions or returns are not attractive." Makes you wonder whether they waited until after the 16th May Trading Update to implement the change in strategy.

https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/company/?company=Telford+Homes&c=3QTO

Great set of results and positive outlook. steph, I can't be sure but when the company talk about doubling in size I think they refer to doubling the number of units delivered. See http://www.cityam.com/article/1385599874/telford-homes-aims-double-size-business-five-years "we will be able to deliver double the units completing a year and double the size of the business in the next five years" With TEF's strategy of including more BTR and perhaps lower margins on open market sales EPS is not likely to increase at the same rate.

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/mortgage-market-springs-back-to-life-but-home-purchase-approval-growth-still-lags-behind-remortgages/

Little wonder we have such a boom & bust culture the way journalists report. Not sure where the figures came from but they don't tally with a couple of other sources I found. https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/mortgage-approvals-211 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals Neither of the above have a figure for April yet with the top link suggesting it gets released on 31st May. If you play around with the little sliders for the graph on the first link you can see the vast difference between pre-2008 and post-2008. It also looks like the last 5 years has been within quite a small range with no particular direction.

My question is whether information of such a material nature should form part of the RNS? Are CRST in breach of their regulatory obligations to shareholders?

Strictly, This is what BWY said back in February "For the full financial year, continued changes in mix, together with the further contribution of higher value apartments at Nine Elms, should mean that the overall average selling price will rise to in excess of �280,000 (31 July 2017 � �260,354)." So dabbling with more expensive properties which is what CRST said was the problem. And "The operating margin for the first half of the year is expected to rise, to slightly above 22% (2017 � 22.0%), and the Group should be able to achieve an operating margin of around 22% for the full financial year (31 July 2017 � 22.3%), provided that current market conditions continue." And "Previously announced plans to open a new twentieth division, located in Scotland, are progressing well and in addition, the Board continues to appraise expansion opportunities in other areas of the country." So like CRST opening new divisions. Like you say it will be interesting.

1GW, It sounds like you are more up on things than me. I appreciate their targets are sales based but for me that's a bit of an issue in itself. I must admit I hadn't realised they'd guided towards a margin of around 19% in January. I've probably been a little unfair then but still think if they gave margin information in January they should have done in March too. A couple of other things I noticed from the CRST update which you probably also noticed. They didn't confirm the �1.4bn 2019 target this time so perhaps that's no longer reliable (previously they've always confirmed this) and unlike in the corresponding update of May 2017 they haven't given separate numbers for open market and PRS unit completions. I suppose the second point doesn't matter if they've provided guidance on margins & sales but I hate inconsistency. Another important point I think is that this time last year they guided towards a 10% sales increase and achieved only 5%. In regard to market disappointment I see that 4-traders have actually increased estimated eps for 2018. It looks a bit odd to me. They've decreased margins from 19.1% to 18.4% and operating profits have reduced but eps has gone up from 66.2p to 66.3p. To be honest I don't know what to think. Perhaps it's all been a bit of an overreaction. There might even be an argument that other builders still have to break the news if they're in the same boat or will be in the near future if it's gradually spreading out from London.

I'm not saying CRST aren't good value but this is what they were saying 5 months into the financial year on 22/3/18 "The robust sales outlook, combined with the actions that the business is taking to expand its operational footprint, underpin the Board's confidence that the Company will continue to deliver on its stated growth objectives" Now we are told that margins are going to be 10% lower than the 20.3% average for the 2017 FY but that they will remain at 18% in FY 2019. Mind you TEF were less than forthcoming in their 18th April update "In late March the Group launched Bow Garden Square, E3, very much focused on owner-occupiers with prices starting from �390,000. Initial interest has been encouraging and a number of reservations have been secured." The number of reservations was 3 and today the number is 4 according to TEF's website.

>I hadn't seen this post you made at the time I emailed you yesterday evening..... Likewise. I had your reply down as first job of the morning after a couple of routine ones and am only now looking at forums.

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/crest-nicholsons-margin-warning-could-spell-trouble-for-all-housebuilders Trouble for all builders? This guy thinks we have to wait until 5 July when PSN update to see if this is a widespread issue. Well they gave us a very positive update just 17 days ago and said "Pricing conditions remain firm across our regional markets." http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=PSN&ArticleCode=5o2exj50&ArticleHeadline=Trading_Update

CRST's margins were 19.1% in H1 2017 and 20.3% for the year as a whole. Looking at 4-traders, their estimates for 2018 were based on a 19.1% margin and an increase in sales of 16%. They were forecasting 69.2 eps. So that's a prospective p/e ratio of approx. 8 on yesterday's SP and approx 7 on today's close SP. Reducing earnings by 5% doesn't make that much difference. An overreaction perhaps for a share that wasn't (relatively speaking) expensive anyway?

https://www.ft.com/content/6566cf00-537c-11e8-84f4-43d65af59d43

With current market share growth of the online sector slower than originally anticipated it's a matter of hanging on in there for those not making a profit. PB in profit in the UK so can afford to wait and see if growth picks up. I'm sure there are some big companies with brand recognition already watching all the goings on. Virgin comes to mind. All it takes is big investment in marketing as we've seen with PB. Probably the reason some of these tiddlers are hanging around - somebody may come and buy them.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/property-bosses-in-london-cheer-as-tories-hold-key-councils-a3831261.html 'Jon Di-Stefano, chief executive of Telford Homes which is building in Nine Elms, Wandsworth, said: �Stability in terms of political control of each borough is particularly important when you are in the middle of complex planning negotiations across a number of sites.� He continued: �In that context it is the lack of change in Wandsworth and other boroughs that is most helpful to speeding up our ability to get on site, especially where those boroughs welcome appropriate development.�'

>people will begin demanding the benefits of more technology, and we'll see less and less value in... people, potentially Jimmy, I'd much prefer to do deal with things in the convenience of my own home on my PC but this is the counter-argument https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ug1ko8Sr9p4 If traditional agents were paid on a performance basis rather than a percentage of the asset then I'd be all for them and wouldn't have listed with PB. Perhaps PB could add expert auctioneers to their optional services? Bringing the post sales side of things online must surely be on the agenda for the Government. They are currently reviewing the home-buying process and hopefully somebody has made representations along these lines. It's once the sale is agreed that is the current weak point with both traditional agents and more so with online ones. It's all early days in the great scheme of things.

UK = 696 https://www.purplebricks.co.uk/search-local-expert?ref=header Oz = 83 https://www.purplebricks.com.au/search-local-expert?ref=header

None scheduled. For the last 2 years they gave notice of an update following on shortly after the end of the financial year. Last year they announced the update on 25th April and released it on 5th of May. Perhaps they're skipping it this year because they gave an update on 26/3/18.

I'm assuming 40%. If you look back further with TEF the average is pretty much 50/50 between H1 & H2 and with the last 2 interim statements they have gone out of their way to say it's just how the development completions have fallen. I'm pretty sure TEF have never said there's any particular pattern.

>And some people have the audacity to question the sheer growth of this market disruptor! Nobody is questioning the growth just whether it is slowing. https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2018/3/purplebricks-under-pressure-after-bank-warns-of-slowing-growth