Member Info for cyberduck

>A deal as controversial as hers if implemented will not only frustrate those who want a harder Brexit but will alienate remainers from politics. If a referendum on the two options is fought and won by one side at least the other will feel it was not a stitch up.

If you voted against the PM's deal because you wanted a different type of Brexit then unless you're easily fooled I think you will feel stitched up by only being given 2 options.

>A deal as controversial as hers if implemented will not only frustrate those who want a harder Brexit but will alienate remainers from politics

Whatever the outcome there will be a lot of frustrated people.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/brexit/brexit-specials

Odds drifting longer on the chances of the UK leaving the EU by the 29th March. Also on another referendum before the end of 2019.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=WJG&ArticleCode=bb6khavk&ArticleHeadline=Full_Year_Results

Perhaps of interest because of the BTR side of the business.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46856149

'Speaking to factory workers, Mrs May said she now believed MPs blocking Brexit was more likely than a no-deal scenario.'

"As we have seen over the last few weeks, there are some in Westminster who would wish to delay or even stop Brexit and who will use every device available to them to do so...

"Having observed events over the last seven days, it is now my judgment that the likely outcome is a paralysis in Parliament that risks there being no Brexit."

>Homebuilder SPs are anticipating tougher sales markets than we have been used to in recent years,brought about by not only Brexit but as the inevitable outcome of years if over frothy HPI

Of course SP's not always the best indicator. Irrational exuberance and the opposite whatever that's called.

Certainly no frothy HPI where I am. HPI up about 20% since 2012 and about 4% in 2018. Plenty of places like it over the country. London a different matter and affordabiity certainly a problem for the UK homeowner. For overseas investors currently being put off by Brexit affordability is probably not an issue with the weak pound compensating for any stamp duty perhaps. I would imagine the vast amounts of money lined up for institutional investment in London & the rest of the UK could have a say too. Maybe London just needed a correction?

Steph,

>If that is what the 52% actually wanted she would be riding high in the polls.

Poll gives Theresa May highest approval rating since becoming PM

On the other hand...

"Just over half of voters (53%) disapprove of how she has handled Brexit overall, while just 28% approve."

The thing is though, I think generally speaking people always see faults with the way somebody is doing a job. We all have this belief that we could do better and are generally talking in hindsight.

When something doesn't work out we label it as a bad decision. But it might not be a bad decision because there might have been nothing that stood out between two alternatives when the decision was made. In that case it was a good decision and it just didn't work out. You have no idea whether the other decision would have worked out either but because it didn't work out you are criticized for making a bad decision and people with hindsight will say "I would have done this and that".

Steph,

I really didn't pay much attention to all the debate on Brexit before the vote because the last people I am going to trust are politicians and journalists but I'm sure the horror stories of leaving were represented along with the horror stories of remaining.

In fact I was amazed that the vote was in favour of leaving, the consequences seemed so dire whenever I heard it being discussed. Given that we have no better idea of what people meant by voting to leave, would it not then be reasonable to assume the vote was to leave irrespective of the consequences?

In hindsight it would have been better to have had another referendum to propose alternatives but let's face it Parliament voted to serve notice so the responsibility of not doing so lies with everybody who didn't vote against.

According to wikipedia Jeremy Corbyn said at the time ""I am asking all our MPs not to block Article 50 and make sure it goes through next week" and "47 of 229 Labour MPs voted against the bill (in defiance of the party's three-line whip), including 10 junior shadow ministers and 3 whips from the party. One Conservative (Kenneth Clarke) voted against the bill, and 2 of the 9 Liberal Democrat MPs abstained.[13] Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary whose constituency voted to remain in the EU, was accused of having "Brexit flu" as she did not attend the vote on Article 50 due to illness, despite attending a debate in Westminster Hall three hours before the vote."

Thanks.

>I suspect in the last week the odds of no brexit or a very mild brexit have gone up

What has changed though?

TEF up 20% (almost) in the last 10 trading days. Since 27th December. Perhaps it's because there's been a break in any real news and everybody was pretty much forgetting about the issues? Perhaps, as the vote approaches the media will stir things up again, people will focus on it again and nervousness will return?

.

>Every Brexit and also remain very much still in play.

That's what I was thinking. But the market seems to think otherwise? Why do you think this is? Did something actually change?

270p to 323p in 10 trading days. Nearly 20%.

And the sector as a whole not too dissimilar.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-aim-100/risers

TEF in third place as it stands.

Retailers announced...

https://www.islingtongazette.co.uk/news/finsbury-park-city-north-telford-homes-cineworld-marks-and-spencer-gymbox-development-1-5845784

Looks like today (so far) it isn't the end of the world as we know it :)

The pantomime starts again today though.

Mike delPrete always seeming to be writing positively about PB although he has been proven wrong in his analysis. See http://www.mikedp.com/articles/2016/12/5/purplebricks-results-show-promising-trends where he was forecasting rapid and huge growth based on scaling up turnover but keeping costs under control. This hasn't really happened anything like what he was suggesting. In the last update UK costs (admin & marketing) grew more than turnover with losses in the UK only being prevented by increasing margins and turnover growing faster than the "cost of sales".

"He says that one fascinating aspect of Axel Springer’s involvement with Purplebricks is that on the one hand its portals outside the UK attempt to give traditional agents the maximum number of leads, while in the UK - and those other markets where Purplebricks operates - the emphasis is on disrupting traditional agencies."

An alternative interpretation on Axel Springers investment in PB is that it could have been a hedge. The fact they don't invest in online Agents in markets where they owns portals might be demonstrating this.

They could in fact be happy to lose their £125m if it turns out online Agency isn't disrupting the markets. Will there be other investors queuing up if they don't invest more in PB? Perhaps they would be better off pulling the plug by refusing to pump any more money in? This wouldn't kill off PB in the UK but they are growing at such a slow rate and costs don't seem to be under control so is this going to take up as much market share as envisaged?

I'm not saying this is the case but something to bear in mind. Like I say, Mike delPrete does always seem to find something good about PB to write about and got it wrong (like many of us) about the scaling theory.

Yes, TEF certainly playing a different game to the likes of BWY but BWY can pretty much buy anywhere they want and have chosen SE London. This suggests to me that they are happy with current land prices which I think is a positive sign for TEF's future purchases.

Let's hope TEF can convince the Borough to approve a lower percentage for Cambridge Road. Deals have to have something for both parties if you want to have a continued relationship.

Also for consideration, despite TEF's difficulties, they are currently trading at about 0.95 book value, whereas BWY trading at about 1.25.

https://bdaily.co.uk/articles/2019/01/07/bellway-buys-land-in-southeast-london-for-new-homes-and-workspace

"Housebuilder Bellway has acquired land in Lower Sydenham, southeast London, for the delivery of 159 new homes."

With a choice of anywhere in the country pretty much BWY purchasing land in SE London.

TEF also saying they're still buying but they don't have as much choice.

"Property expert Russell Quirk said the resilience of the nation’s bricks and mortar backbone "continues to shine through and defy the naysayers"

Just in case you missed it Sain :)

RQ not top of Sain's favourite people list after he was blocked from questioning him about eMoov's fund raising on CrowdCube just a couple of months before they went into administration.
.

https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/estate-agent-apologises-after-sending-2399593

"Estate agent apologises after sending out letter which wrongly claimed firm selling man's house was about to go bust"

"Purplebricks customer Dan Hodgett, of Forest Fields, was left stunned when a letter warned his agent’s future was 'uncertain' over a 'lack of funds.'"

Makes you wonder what is being said by traditional agents at those ever so important valuations.

If I was PB I'd employ an independent third party to employ homeowners to carry out an investigation into what homeowners are being told by local agents when they ask about PB.

I sold with PB and was regularly phoned by local agents and if I hadn't been keeping an eye on other properties on the market I could have been mistaken for thinking I wouldn't sell my house with PB.

PB clearly didn't expect growth to slow down so quickly in the UK but the investment and concentration on TV ads and rapid expansion of their LPE network moved them into a profitable position. Hatched was discontinued because it was unviable, then eMoov. Housesimple only managed an increase in turnover of £330K and losses increased from £7.4m to £8.4m.

To keep investors interested you would expect them to need some massive increase in instructions without paying too much for them. It's not looking likely and they charge about £1000 for "no sale, no fee".

The question is, if HS go bust, will PB benefit? Looking at the number of instructions they are listing on a daily basis there isn't much sign of them having benefited from eMoov or Hatched discontinuing but time will tell.

Thanks. Way over my head I'm afraid :)

They were also in discussion about 2 other sites and also being part of "London Development Panel 2" which will probably be his remit.