Member Info for cyberduck

>News from Tef , "please"

I've spotted a couple more reservations of properties listed over £600K. One at Liberty which was listed at £950K and another at New Garden Quarter which was listed at £655K.

Quite encouraging at this time of year I think, although a reservation isn't a sale.

https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/slowdown-in-the-south-puts-average-uk-house-price-growth-at-a-seven-year-low/

Up 3.3% nationally.

London down 0.1%

2016...

21st December "Third Build to Rent sale for ?48.6 million"

2017...

18th December "New ?210 million corporate loan facility"

20th December "Acquisition of prominent site in Walthamstow"

20th December "Exchange of contracts with London Borough of Brent"

2018...

?

>an enviable brand awareness

I can't remember the exact figures they quote but "unaided" brand awareness still has a long way to go. This is really what counts because if you're choosing an Estate Agent you will go with the ones at the forefront of your mind. Most probably a local agent.

The whole industry is in flux. But it's happening pretty slowly. If you read the articles there are High Street Agents talking about moving off the High Street to offices. How will that work out in the long term? How will they keep up their "unaided" brand awareness? And look what's happening to the High Street in general. Was it Laura Ashley that is closing branches.

I have little time for politicians or the media.

Just looking at that BBC article. It was quite clear what May said in her speech to parliament. She had been talking to Heads of State and there seemed to be an acceptance that they would clarify the terms of the deal.

So their headline is "Brexit: EU says no to May on renegotiating deal"

But wouldn't it have been more reasonable to say "EU says yes to May on clarifying deal"?

With all information coming via politicians and journalists, what chance is there that these things can be dealt with properly. I dread another referendum and have little faith in the integrity of the last one.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46560807

"European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said there could be clarifications but no renegotiation"

Isn't this exactly what TM said she was seeking in regard to the Backstop? She suggested these clarifications over the Backstop would satisfy those people she had spoken to and who had issues with the current deal.

So is it not a bit premature for TB to be saying 'she should "switch course" and back a second referendum because of deadlock in parliament'?

Or have I missed something?

Might be time for a few bargain hunters to buy some of TEF's remaining properties.

I noticed a couple of reservations of £800K+ properties last week at Liberty.

One of those penthouses might turn out a better investment than TEF's shares :)

Hoping for some announcements any time soon.

The institutional partner was supposed to be chosen before the end of the year and announced next year.

Looking forward to the Greystar deal announcement. They've added the units to the pipeline so that surely must be pretty secure? What do people think the profit will be on that deal? I got excited at one point and penciled in £80m but I think £50m is more likely.

Possibly other announcements too.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-bosses-urge-theresa-may-to-show-leadership-after-infighting-farce-a4016461.html

"What we do need is to swiftly put a final EU deal before parliament.” He added: “If that fails to gain support then I can’t see any other reasonable outcome than another referendum.”

Airbus UK not far from me and I've got a couple of friends who work there. Wikipedia says 10,000 employees back in 2005. Probably a lot more now.

I got told the Wings get sent to Germany for some minor work before France and they put "Made in Germany" on them. Not sure if that's true :)

james,

>so much for my Phd in economics and politics then

Is there a consensus among highly qualified economists over whether the UK should stay or remain? Over whether the UK can demand a better deal from the EU? Or do you as a group argue about this like everybody else?

Personally I have no idea in regard to those two points and I imagine most people don't.

I'm genuinely interested in regard to whether there is any consensus among Economists.

>can’t take on enough property to keep going

>It will survive just at £50m mc and less agents and bigger areas

Featherbourne,

That was a quick about turn.

Are you factoring in growth with your valuations?

The big question for me is how quickly marketing costs and admin. costs are growing. If they can keep these in check and grow turnover by 20% then just the UK side of things can be valued on high multiples of earnings.

Very difficult to put a value on the shares and the H1 results will help in terms of the UK business.

Featherbourne,

What do you consider enough property and how much are you seeing being taken on?

It seems like the breakeven point for the UK is about 40,000 listings a year if expenditure hasn't increased disproportionately.

See the graph under heading "PurpleBricks' UK Business" here http://www.mikedp.com/articles/2018/7/16/analyzing-purplebricks-fy18-results

For FY 2018 the number of listings for the UK was 64376 according to the audited company accounts and there was a profit from operating activities of £4.2M. Since then they have reported H1 2019 growth in turnover of 20%. No mention of marketing costs or admin. costs though so no idea about profit.

But from where I'm sitting I only see an increase in the number of listings over comparative periods. Nothing spectacular but a long way from not being able to take on enough property unless marketing & admin. costs have increased dramatically.

Sain, TM not looking to renegotiate just get the agreement amended to clarify what she claims has already been agreed in order to satisfy MPs that the backstop is not going to end up being permanent. She says she's spoken to heads of state. It wouldn't surprise me if the agreement is amended.

The question is whether that would be enough to satisfy a majority of MPs?

Steph,

There was a moment yesterday when Vince Cable asked what the views of Heads of State had been during TM's telephone conversations and TM indicated that they had been quite encouraging in regard to amendments that establised that the backstop could not end up being permanent. I actually thought VC's reaction was of surprise.

Is TM being realistic in thinking this would be enough to sway the MPs vote? If not then she really is in denial as this is all she says she is seeking from the EU. If she is in denial you wonder why there wasn't a motion of no confidence. Also, why did VC ask if he didn't think it was relevant?

>Not sure why you sound surprised. It has been clear for a long time that May agreement was not going to get through the House.

But surely the vote should go ahead? The EU and the public could then see how the house and individual politicians had voted.

If the government do go back to the EU, they should invite Labour to the negotiations. Call their bluff. If we could take party politics out of the equation then this should speed things up.

If this drags on much longer we'll end up with a full blown recession.

>That's 100% correct.

Thanks.

JVSOZ,

I remember you saying the sales assistants had been converted to LPEs but this was a while back. I recorded 81 LPEs in Oz at the beginning of October.

So just more Assistants? No proper Estate Agents joining up?

Up from 99 on 7th November to 122 today. 109 two days ago.

What's going on JVSOZ?