Member Info for cyan2

No-one was holding a gun to Penguins head. His lines were expressing incredulity at Wizards belief all will come good.

Penguin had set out a comprehensive evidence based case that the Weald adventure has fallen far short of what was hoped.

Penguin was quoting Wizard125 lines from an earlier thread post ; " 'I still think it will come good even as bad as it may look at times as I believe that the underlying resources that I have seen are now proven'.'

Despite all the evidence Penguin set out Wizard still believes it will all come good.

Apart from the "flagship" Horse Hill UKOG have a 10% interest in 'Horndean' which UKOG's own webpage suggests produces 13-14 barrels per day for UKOG? That's not very much.

Then there's the useless , shut in 5% interest in Avington.

Even if anyone was interested in Horse Hill , would Sanderson want to sell all or part?.

I am not convinced that anyone else would want to buy any part . Look at the history; multiple partners sold out their percentage interests to UKOG long ago; no-one else bought.

I don't think UKOG can raise much from any "asset" sale; that leaves placing's as the usual way

Good morning Mr Dexter
You wrote;
"Why would they do a placing now ?? You wait until a week or so after spud - SP very much higher and link any funds raised to appraisal and exploitation. Or as they are funded for this drill they could sell off other assets to fund. This has plenty of legs left"
'they could sell off other assets to fund'

What significant asset does UKOG have that they could sell that anyone would want to buy?

Good morning Wizard125
You wrote wrote;
"When reserves are added for the Kimmeridge, Loxley & the IOW I think the picture will look very different."

UKOG can not add RESERVES without a CPR. Sanderson has held out the hope that the continual raising of cash could cease with reserve backed lending from financers . Until a decent CPR is completed; placing's are likely the way further capital will be raised.
UKOG have offered excuses as to why they have not produced a CPR. My belief is that a CPR will expose the true state of affairs with the Kimmeridge and no bookable reserves will be added. The planning document submitted by UKOG themselves states boldly the state of affairs as regards The Kimmeridge;

Page 22 of the Loxley planning document dated 19th April 2019 has this shocking line;

"Flow tests and pressure data from the Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill Wells Sites have been sub-commercial.."

Wizard 125 wrote;
"Your bitterness is showing!"

I have no reason to be bitter Wizard but I know I have touched a nerve when I get such a response
You also wrote;
"I don't think that many 10's of millions of reserves for a UK site is writing it off"

'Many tens of millions in reserves' ! that's incorrect.

Listen to what Sanderson said as to the total production and RESERVES proven volumes from the entire Weald ; just 32 million over 12 wells and decades in time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI

Why won't UKOG produce a CPR? It might be very interesting reading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI
Sanderson effectively writes down the Weald;

"we need projects that are each worth hundreds of millions in present value , not tens

UK onshore does not have this size of opportunity; that's where South East Turkey comes in"

He's spelt it out clear enough; Kimmeridge dreams of riches are dead.

Good evening Ocelot
You wrote 2
"It was George Frangeskides of Alba who, on 09/02/21, said of HH that the Kimmeridge "remains the really big target". "

I respectfully suggest you carefully listen to what Sanderson said; and no-one else;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI

In my opinion Sanderson now knows the Kimmeridge dream is over BUT , if UKOG published that it would have serious financial implications for the company. One would be that Broadford Bridge would have to be restored at some expense.
When is the last time Sanderson bragged about the Kimmeridge flow rates? He wouldn't be rolling the dice in Turkey if the 'billions' dream was still credible.

They have not RNS'd that the Kimmeridge dream is over BUT the cat was let out of the bag in a planning document.

Page 22 of the Loxley planning document dated 19th April 2019 has this shocking line;

"Flow tests and pressure data from the Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill Wells Sites have been sub-commercial.."

Good afternoon K11fns

Have a listen to SANDERSON talking about why he is rolling the dice in Turkey. He has a fair bit to say about The Weald and nowhere does he mention billions of barrels.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI

Look at the partners who sold out of HH.; sold to UKOG for very little.

Wizard 125 wrote"
"Water injection does not work without water & is there to maintain reservoir pressure & boost production.
If it wasn't there naturally it may have been needed to be imported at great cost."

For UKOG to have to convert the planned second producing well to a water injector is a serious setback and imo raises serious productivity questions.

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/uk-oil-gas-UKOG/share-news/UK-Oil-Gas-PLC-HH-1-and-HH-2z-Extended-Well-Test/81
RNS dated 23.12.19
Extract
"A field development plan ("FDP") was also submitted to the Oil and Gas Authority, seeking consent for the field's planned first "long-term production" phase which will follow the conclusion of the EWT. This phase will consist of two producing wells, HH-1 and HH-2z. Subsequent phases, involving further infill production wells and a possible water reinjection well, are planned to be submitted as FDP addenda in the coming year once longer-term well behaviour is more comprehensively understood."
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/uk-oil-gas-UKOG/share-news/UK-Oil-Gas-PLC-Horse-Hill-oil-field-update/84101181

Dated 15.1.21
"..to remove the need for expensive off-site water disposal via tanker and to also help maximise oil recovery by supporting reservoir pressure, HH-2z will now be reconfigured, subject to regulatory consent, into a water re-injection well as soon as practicable

"We look forward to the conversion of HH-2z into a water injector in the Spring and to the resultant increase in net revenue from the reduction in water handling costs.."

The water production is a negative here.

Wizard125
Production from the modest Portland volumes should be the priority. UKOG could be turned into a very modest ,eventually profitable business. It will have been at HUGE cost though.
However ,it appears that the development is stalling and beset by water issues. Production volumes appear very modest ;indeed; are they covering costs?
Imo Sanderson just can not seem to concentrate on one thing at a time and has grandiose ambition which has led him to the next 'get rich quick scheme' ; Turkey. Good luck ; I am off out for a bit. now its been nice to exchange views.

Wizard125 wrote;
"If you are not invested & no interest why are you here running down others investments?"

I find it hard to describe UKOG as an investment; Its a traders play ground.
I post because I have been dismayed over the years to see so many small investors led into enormous losses by those peddling ridiculous dreams of riches, in particular those 'billions of barrels '.
Who will ever forget Sanderson with his "retiring to the Bahamas " line.
That came from a man has never bought a single share in the company and is now gambling in Turkey; and NOT with any of his money.
I know that some have supported UKOG very vigorously for a very long time. Some are critics and have raised uncomfortable facts and FACTS are not what some on this BB want published.

DYOR ; Know the history and make your choices; roll the dice, nothing is guaranteed .

Wizard125 wrote;

"Maybe you should look at SS's previous discovery record.

That's why I am invested & you are not! "

I have looked at his record; in particular The Weald. UKOG describes BroadfordBridge where he blew many millions as "a discovery" really? Seriously?

As for HH; how many barrels are being produced? Why did the partners sell out for so little? Why isn't UKOG prioritizing getting production there right?

Instead he's rolling the dice at great expense in Turkey.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EcvNsIFxzU
from 9mins " a roll of the dice"

AME have UKOG frontloading all the risk with the costs of that first well.
If it fails; not much loss to AME
All begs the questions that why AME did not go it alone if the 'gamble' was such a good bet.?

Good afternoon wizard 125.
You wrote;

"Although there will be plenty more development at the HH, PEDL234 & IOW licences which should make us a UK mid cap oiler, Turkey would take UKOG even further if it is not bought out first."

Listen to Sanderson extolling the virtues of Turkey here;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI

He trashes the value and volumes of oil in The weald in particular from 1 min 30secs.

If The weald was so wonderful he would continue to prioritize investment there and not gamble in Turkey with what he himself describes is "a roll of the dice"

ZYX098. The evidence that the Kimmeridge dream is as dead as a dodo can be found in UKOG's reluctance to commission a new CPR and their own presentations; firstly;
On Page 22 of the Loxley planning document dated 19th April 2019;

"Flow tests and pressure data from the Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill Wells Sites have been sub-commercial.."

Investors were kept in the dark as they sat on their HH sub-commercial conclusion and it was not RNS'd.

Secondly;
This presentation from UKOG themselves drives this home and explains why the company is gambling in Turkey and its damming;

"Why SE Turkey
& Basur-Resan
makes sense for
UKOG’s future
growth"

hTTps://www.ukogplc.com/ul/UKOG_Turkey_Slides%20_FINAL_190121.pdf

January 20 2021

"South East Turkey has 18 times more produced & proven oil than the entire Weald Basin (572 mmbbl vs. 32 mmbbl) "
That document is a clear admission that the Kimmeridge ' billions' dream is truly dead.

From billions to just 32million EVER produced and proven recoverable. Very small.

Good afternoon ZYX098

you wrote; ".. PI's will have to scrutinise the wording very carefully to try and identify if they are referring to shows, or the well is sub-commercial or it is indeed a discovery."

UKOG do have a history of delaying bad news and bigging up in their RNS's. Broad Bridge result was a shocking example. They produced a video with a guy pouring a jug of oil.
UKOG describes Broadford Bridge as "a discovery" ; which I think is a very generous description of what they have , eventually, had to admit was a sub-commercial result ,even after that sidetrack that they kept pretty quiet. Not a lot said about the Kimmeridge these days .

Good morning Metalbasher.
BB's can be interesting reading ,at times, because , very occasionally, a poster provides a link to useful information or has a thought provoking view backed by analysis of the numbers. You should always do your own research as there are real extremes posted at times. In my opinion some future guesses as to how high this share can go are very unrealistic, BUT, if tulip mania strikes; the sky is the limit , and UKOG has been there before with the now discredited 'billions' commercially recoverable in The Weald. Highly inflated share spikes, with little of substance to justify do have a habit of retreating sharply.
At the moment UKOG appears to be producing circa 100 barrels a day. UKOG have put off the results so we have to await confirmation . AME have been in Turkey for 60 years and have modest productions. The fact they had to bring in UKOG to drill an area last tested in 1964 and abandoned raises questions as to just how great the potential is. Sanderson himself described Turkey as "a roll of the dice' AME have UKOG frontloading the risk with the first drill so we will have to wait and see how much oil is brought to the surface. I am sure anything found will be bigged up and exploited by traders. Good luck.

Good evening jonesrichard

The share price will go wherever buyers drive it. A few years ago at the height of UKOG billions of barrels mania UKOG briefly overtook GENL in market cap. It did not last. People have made money trading UKOG for sure but those that bought and held from the mania days are well under water. Good luck to all

Hi SENMON1

You asked a civil question that asked about how high UKOG share could go. I have lost track of how many share issues there's been here . I will use the LSE quote of number of shares in issue 12.956 Billion.
You asked if UKOG could reach 10p or higher.
If UKOG were to reach 10p with the current shares in issue that would mean a market cap of £1.2956 Billion.
Compare with a regional player like GENL who produce over 32,000 barrels per day and are cash positive holding substantial assets; their market cap today is £478m.
I respectfully suggest that after research on UKOG's assets and the sort of production AME have achieved in Turkey; you might conclude that dreams of 10p are somewhat unrealistic. Good luck.

https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/2012-CPR.pdf
Pages 85-89

To exploit would be a hugely expensive LNG operation; however, this line suggests its not going to happen;

"in excess of GCA's upside case would need to be found to make development viable"

The fact that neither RKH or ARG have anything to say about Johnson these days tells you what you need to know.