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Doc you also have to remember that we have no idea of what’s going on with the p3. They could have started in many countries and we would only know if someone mentioned it on Twitter or it was updated on the trial list, albeit that is very delayed. We have to believe they are making good progress. We also need to remember they only need 600 trialists. I think we worked out that if there is 200 each in uk and USA then the remaining countries only need to recruit circa 11 patients each. So not majorly important the smaller counties are dosed first. I expect they have concentrated on uk and USA first. The other counties are more for selling into on approval if they can also see at first hand the benefit of sng001. Very savvy commercial move but little dependency on the overall numbers to fill the trial.
Yeah that’s my thoughts Matt. Within 1-2b on eua and preorders. Multiples of that on p3 success, stockpiling for winter and potential licensing or takeover. My own personal target is around £10 but still could easily be pushing the bull case if a takeover or multiple deals are on the cards. Exciting times but patience is certainly needed!!
Doc/Org please don’t undervalue the p3 trial. It’s currently our closest set of data for full approval of sng001. Putting the SP to one side it is the P3 that is where the true value is and RM would not have taken his foot off any peddle. You have to remember the size of synairgen and we are trying to play in the big boys league but expect we are coming up against many hurdles that some people don’t want us to overcome. We are tadpoles in a sea of sharks. P2 home data is very important as the data should be even better than the hospital results. Giving the drug as early as possible has always been our boards preference.
Keep the faith. The SP is staying nicely around 175p for a reason. It’s just waiting to take off. My hope is p2 home trial data in the next 2 weeks followed by activ 2 moving to p3. We will then be undertaking 2 x p3 trials and just one step away from approval. If we get EUA in the meantime that will be a bonus and boost the sp to new heights. If the home trial data is good though I see this investment as completely derisked.
I think it’s worth people adjusting their expectations for p2 US or UK home trial news. It only adds to more disappointment when the likes of Tiger and CityT make assumptions on what will happen without backing them up. I gave cityT the benefit of the doubt but there is just no way you can tell if someone is buying or selling unless you have insider info. It’s just a guess and no help to anyone.
I think we will be lucky to hear anything in March but if we do it will most likely be towards the end of the month. Once initial activ 2 and p2 home results are out I’m expecting SNG to apply for EUA in UK and US. If results are positive there should be enough data to get emergency approval. As RM said we will soon meet the tipping point.
me too blessed. Nothing more to research in my view that we don't already know. Same as a week or 2 before p2 results last year. Some were panicking they were over exposed, others calm and happy with their risk/reward ratio. Its nearly completely de-risked for me now and any sign of good news from US p2 or our p2 home trial makes it 100%. If it works early in the infection cycle even better. Our scientists think it does and who are we to question them. They know it works.