Member Info for Culley01

@nofear
Do you know the sale price?
Presumably we’ll get an RNS from CPI shortly

They are hosting a presentation by Stuart Morgan (CPIs investor relations guy) giving an update.
If you Google Yellowstone you can register for the update.

Possibly the Yellowstone update on the 20th has been timed so that results of the sale are known beforehand.
I would also like to see some new contract wins (the 2 mentioned by SM on the 6 month update have so far failed to materialise)
A significant contact win and a sale, hopefully north of £200m should give a significant boost to the SP otherwise I think we’re into a wait for the Y/E.

I’m beginning to wonder if the strategy shouldn’t be just to keep selling bits of CPI until it’s all gone.
After all if they can get over £1b (includes pay365) for the bits they don’t want what would they get for the best? bits , £1b £1.5b?
I’d be pretty happy with that.

20 th September 12pm Yellowstone

I wonder if that will be my last purchase sub 25p.
I left an order yesterday for 52k at 24.8 which got filled first thing

@pedrobul
I do get your point on companies being mismanaged into oblivion & I think that was the way CPI was going.
However I do believe Jon Lewis has done an excellent job here in turning it around & it is not (thank heavens) the company it was 5 years ago.
We will have to wait another 18 months or so to see this transition being recognised by the wider market but at that point I would hope for a substantial re rate

@vodger yes I agree somewhat confusing statements.
We do need some major contract wins (SM said several months ago that 2 major contracts were in the offing).
I think, as indicated by JL, that it may be Y/E 2023 before the situation is clarified in accounts, i.e. clear statement re debt with pre IFRS at nil ( or cash to offset), positive cash flow & trading profits in the £100m/£150m range + dividends reinstated. At that point we should have a £1b + company

Yellowstone have an update on CPI 20th Sept
Hope it’s better than Stuart Morgan’s last rather lacklustre report

I don’t think that at this stage trend lines have any bearing on CPIs performance.
This will be driven solely by half yearly (& more importantly annual) figures.
When these reflect debt reduction (end of year accounts will hopefully show pre IFRS debt as nil, or at least covered by cash), dividend resumption, increasing profits & positive cash flow.
Ounce achieved this should push the price up, trigger return to the FTSE 250 & this in turn will push prices further & generate more interest & hence investors.

This share is almost as depressing as all the rubbish that is being posted on this site.
I am a long term holder & believer in CPI but it does try your patience.

@Sharehead.
When you refer to a bidding war are you meaning bids for Pay360 or something else

Go CPI
10% or so of profits is to me sizeable but otherwise we are in agreement that a sale of this magnitude is very positive.

The market seems to think bids around £200m for Pay360 may be achieved.
It will make a sizeable dent in CPIs profits (pay £360 has £12m profit) but a sale of this magnitude will eliminate pre IFRS debt (with other disposals already agreed + cash) completely & would hopefully prompt resumption of dividends.

Unhooked.
End of year report covers it but from memory there was over £300m to pay into the pension fund ( now will only need £15/20m each year), £50m from a screwed up update to systems + cash in hand. All these major one offs seem to be finished & all future sales proceeds go directly to reducing debt

Unless we geta substantial contract win or more sales (& even these don't seem to stabilise or raise the share price) we will be waiting for the Y/E results or the Dec update (which is usually released with impeccably bad timing).
I do hope that the results are very positive and that the report has a clear statement of exactly what the trading profits/debt owing/debt repaid/cash on hand + a statement relating to when the intention is to restart dividends.
i believe CPI are doing well and will come good eventually but they don't help themselves with poorly timed and rather lackluster statements, the exception being Jon Lewis' report re future share price etc.
can I also ask for the squabling on this board to stop, we used to have serious discussions re CPI & 90% of posts are now arguments between various posters.

We need to remember that the IIs rate this (correctly in my opinion) as a recovery stock & as such it will have fluctuations although recently these have been limited.
Until we have clear accounts showing a rising profit/Turnover without the distortions from sales & costs associated with these plus a reinstatement of dividends this will remain a recovery stock.
Once the above is achieved & it could be 2/3 years we will have transformed into a company to invest in for steady growth & dividends.
At that point we should see values in the region of £1.00 / £1.50 & as we move towards this transition more investors will see the potential & the SP should move up accordingly

Cane
I think the big difference between Serco & CPI is that Serco is 3+ years ahead in terms of recovery.
I agree at present Serco is looking strong but the SP already represents its current position & the SP has strong but limited growth.
CPI has the potential for 3X/4X/5X growth in the next 2/3 years.

Overall a decent report & slightly better than I expected.
Until we have a clear set of accounts (possibly end of year 2023) where all the disposals have been completed, revenue represents existing business, clear growth from core business and hopefully the elimination of pre IFRS debt I don’t think we will get a major rerating & this ties in with JLs comments.
I was pleased to see post IFRS debt reducing from property/ lease disposals & also pleased that further reductions in group overhead costs are planned.

I suspect tomorrow’s results will be another non event & we will then be waiting for the next major announcement I.e the December statement.
Even the fact that another £69m sale had been achieved beating the £700 m target by over £100m with more to come is met with indifference by the markets.
As I’ve said before until debt is actually reduced (rather than cash availability to repay debt) & dividends restarted I can’t see a major upsurge.
I do believe once it does move £1.00 - £1.50 is achievable but it could take 2-3 years but if it triples or quadruples in that time frame it’s still a pretty spectacular result.