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Chin up! It’s still a good price for this share, long term. Just got to keep them for a while longer. They’re a 5 year hold right now anyway.
So we all know why the share price is depressed because of the Brexit negotiations being fairly shambolic and investors are worried for future housing market because of this. There are murmurings even from Michel Barnier that a deal is close. BDEV and all the builders are very undervalued as we all know so once the fog of Brexit clears then hopefully normal service will be resumed.
Like NigeW has said, price the share on their fundamentals and when all the external noise stops for a while you will make a profit on these share and collect healthy dividends in the process.
Before 2007 BDEV was priced at upto 14 x EPS. Afterwards when things starts to pick up again they’re max pricing was around 12.5x EPS (still in EU then). After Brexit vote best multiple was this time last year at 11.5xEPS. So next October is the time to think about selling with an expected EPS for this years reading of 69.5p per share even 10x EPS will give you nearly £7 and with a tail wind closer to £8. And then you’ll kick yourself you didn’t buy more when they were cheap!
It will come back it’ll just take time and a lot of fingernail biting. Courage mon brave!
Should add though that when the s##t hits the fan like now then cyclicals often trade at around 9.5x EPS which is roughly where we are so here’s hoping for some settled times ahead.
I wish PSN share price would increase in line with the increase dividend but it won’t I’m afraid. It will help but EPS for 2017 was £2.43 and predicted £2.66 for 2018. This figure gives a much better guide to possible SP for the next financial year. If PSN manage 12 x EPS then they will be doing well. This would give s 52 week high price (possibly!) of £32.92 not £47.00 sometime this year. As for TW last year around May peak SP was £2.04 on predicted EPS of 17.9p ( multiple of 11.4ish) and things were more settled than now. If TW could reproduce that this May then on a predicted EPS of 21.2p for 2018 at 11.4x this equates to £2.42ish not £2.60. With current volatility I reckon we’ll be lucky with 11x EPS this May. Good luck with PSN but your sights might be s bit high.
Picking up on what Nigew was saying, quote from Jeffries analyst yesterday in The Times described TW as “not rock ‘n roll but rock solid.” The average rating of 16 brokers who cover TW. rate it an outperform share and the expected EPS growth for this year across the same brokers averages at 18% above 2017 excluding the exceptional charge. For all the volatility in the market currently there is only one agency that says sell and not one has downgraded their profit forecasts for the next two years. Right now is s great time to top up. I also noticed that someone reckons profit on a new build is only around 10% but most builders have gross margins in the 20+% bracket so that doesn’t seem right. I agree with NigeW that the combination of growth and phenomenal dividends is hard to beat anywhere else. I’d be glad to know of something though if anyone had a recommendation.....!
Regarding leaseholds... at the time TW put the £130million aside it was reported in the Times business section that all the other major builders had been doing exactly the same re: leaseholds. No other company has put money aside for this problem - yet. It’s been a while since the story broke so I don’t understand why other builders have not followed suit and made an exceptional charge against profits to cover any claims. At least TW. have and with the dividend in place perhaps we can just get on with the SP rising again. Getting a bit sick of this rough patch!! I agree it’s not a bad time to top up either. There’s a lot of potential upside. Deutsche bank reckon potential £2.46 this year. But that was in January before all this nonsense!!
Trying to find reasons to be cheerful ( although crying into my morning coffee at current slump) On this day last year closing price was £5.09 and by October had rocketed to £7. We are at least ahead of last year! When sentiment turns there’s a lot of potential upside. Current valuation on this years projected EPS is just 8.5 times which is utterly ludicrous.
Ex div date for interim payout according to Dividend Max website is 19/4/18. Paid 18/5/18. Hoping for around 8p per share this time round (7.3p last year) but I can’t find anything conclusive on the actual figure so that’s just a hopeful guess! Special and final paid in November. Ex div date for both is 25/10/18. Likely to be around 35p per share in total from the two together. I’m salivating already!
Good on ya KD! I should’ve mentioned though that if you’re already in I think it’s a hold (as it is for me) but if you’ve got spare cash right now ( unfortunately I haven’t) absolutey fill your boots at the moment if you possibly can. Housing shortage isn’t going away anytime soon.
Hi everyone, agree going to be a while to recovery for BDEV but the last two years have followed a similar path ( though not such a drastic drop as these last couple of weeks!). I expect BDEV will underperform most other building stocks until market starts to buy in for interim dividend and based on that we should see £6.80 - £6.90 around late April to May. Bit wobbly through summer and then assuming Brexit talks don’t derail us £7.40 to £7.50 just before ex-div date in October. We poor retail investors can only buy on the figures and they’re all still solid for the builders going forward. So maybe dont look for a few weeks if you can tear your eyes away from all the red.... Of course I could be wrong but I’ve held BDEV and TW since 2007 and it’s been quite a ride and I’m still heavily invested. “Courage mon brave”