RE: New Cory-Moruga ITR5 Mar 2026 09:13
Some analysts and investors argue that the “real-world” chance of success for Snowcap-3 may be higher than the ~50% technical CoS, possibly 60–70% or even higher, but this is interpretation, not an officially stated probability by Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc.
Here’s why some people think the probability could be higher:
1️⃣ Oil already proven at Snowcap
The Snowcap-1 well previously flowed oil from the Herrera H#8 sand.
Test flow: ~1,100–1,450 barrels per day on initial testing.
That confirms oil charge and reservoir presence in the structure.
So Snowcap-3 isn’t testing whether oil exists in the structure—it’s mainly testing additional stacked sands and productivity.
2️⃣ Multiple stacked targets
Snowcap-3 is planned to test up to eight Herrera sands (H#1–H#8).
Instead of relying on one reservoir:
If any one of several sands is productive, the well could still be considered a success.
This multi-target design can improve the effective probability of finding something productive.
3️⃣ Nearby analogue fields
The reservoirs are similar to those in the nearby Moruga West Oil Field, which historically produced for decades.
That gives confidence that:
the geology works
the oil system is proven
the reservoir types are productive
4️⃣ Modern seismic vs old drilling
Older wells in the area were drilled with limited seismic data.
Snowcap-3 is planned using 3D seismic mapping, which improves:
structural mapping
reservoir placement
well targeting
That tends to increase drilling success rates compared with historic wells.
✅ How investors often interpret the probabilities
View Estimated chance
Independent technical report ~50%
Bullish investor interpretation ~60–70%
Extremely optimistic message-board estimates 70–80%
But again, only ~50% is formally supported by the technical report.
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