Member Info for cristalball

put us out of this misery,

We have traded in the 5p-10p range for a few years now. It isn't hard to hold at 20p plus. Frankly, what's another year, when you have been invested for 5 years? in 12 months time, we might have full mine funding sewn up, unless ourselves and Talaxis get taken out by the US/China/UK/ Other...? 75p final exit point for me, unless we get taken out at a higher price.

I really don’t get this approach to AIM . Do the research early, prepare to hold for 2+years and then bank the rewards . 100k ish shares here at 5p average.

Fair play - let me have a look - not aware of it .

The fact is, RBW have a high grade deposit but it is TINY. Only 1/4 of their resource value comes from the high grade dep. I have updated my resource analysis below - the value of Songwe in situ is £6.2 billion. RBW value is £210 million. The question for investors is, do you want 25% of a £6.2bn resource on a totally free carry or do you want 90% of a £210m resource have to fund it. No brainer for me. https://twitter.com/flatracingmodel/status/1388120397942599681

Please don’t compare RBW to MKA, the asset is 20x smaller. It’s like Man U versus Tranmere .

maybe because the shares ceased trading today?

court signed off

I wonder if the [definitive Joint Venture Agreement] has been signed, or if this comes after the BFS is published? Anyone know? If not, our bargaining position would be much stronger if we are able to take more of the offtake.

(from deal RNS) - Upon completion of the BFS, and subject to Talaxis and Mkango completing the definitive Joint Venture Agreement, Talaxis will have the Option to acquire a further 26% interest in the Project and offtake rights for 100% of production from the Project (subject to Newco (see below) having the option to retain such amount of offtake as required for Newco's downstream manufacturing activities) in consideration of Talaxis arranging funding for 100% of remaining project development costs, including funding the equity component thereof.

I would imagine that the US would be trying to negotiate the deal with Talaxis - as they seem to hold the cards. I am going to try and re-read the initial deal notes to see if the wording makes this any clearer. i do think that Talaxis have the "option " to secure mine funding, and thus earn the full 75% and first refusal on all of the offtake. This is the key bit for any US involvement, they are not here to make money, just to secure the supply of REE.

I am really interested to understand how the US can get involved if Talaxis can take 75% by funding mine development, Chinalco have signed an MoU and Talaxis have first refusal on all offtake from Songwe? Do we have options whilst we still own 51%??

based on everything you know, is this really a £600m company. Really?

here... i'll check back in another 12 to see if they are any closer to releasing the instant saliva test.

China have played a blinder. Once other nations come sniffing I could see them putting a ring on the finger, so to speak, and throwing Talaxis a huge investment to get things going.

I have been reflecting on the position MKA are now in. Quite rightly (given their investment), Talaxis hold the cards in terms of securing 75% ownership, and have first rights on all of the offtake from Songwe. They have signed an MoU with Chinalco (state controlled) - so agreement in principle, that China will fund the mine. Not a final contract/agreement, however. So, with Talaxis controlling the offtake, other nations will need to come over the top on the MoU with Talaxis if they want the materials. I can see a real war breaking out at the Talaxis end to secure the mine funding, and the offtake. What this means for us is, a pretty certain path to production for zero cost, we get a 25% free carry on the sales of a product with a rising demand and price point.

I wouldn’t put them in the same category, MKA is in another league to RBW - Songwe is 30 times larger in terms of M&I REE ore resources . Clearly MKA only hold 51% vs 90% but.....

Agree . I would also like much more information on the sales price we are getting to gain these strategic partners . Having CropX / Bosch / Zero etc onboard is pointless if we are making losses or selling hardware at cost just to get in the door . I think that has been a problem for a while now . Frankly , if our products were that good , or indeed the market wasn’t overly competitive in this space , we would be doing much better or have been taken over .

Awfully worded update. We will take a beating today. Pathetic from an AIM company , where sentiment drives the share price . I just hope to hell that they get taken over soon.

I have updated my basket composition model, based on new REE values - interestingly, the price movement over the past 12 months has added just under £1 billion to the in situ value of the 51% we own. Amazing really, and bodes very well for the definitive BFS. I appreciate that HAS:ASX are ahead in their journey and have a different capital position, but the overall Songwe Hill asset is more than twice the size of Yangibana. Clearly there are different risks when mining in Aus, but i would imagine we will start to see some real M&A activity here in the coming months. They are valued at 5.2 x MKA, with only 1.4x the owned resources.

https://twitter.com/flatracingmodel/status/1374032692593954816/photo/1

He was the reason I bought in several years ago at 5p . He knows his onions .