Adamas Intelligence forecast9 May 2021 20:27
Constrained by a lack of new primary and secondary supply sources from 2022 onward, Adamas Intelligence forecasts that global shortages of neodymium, praseodymium and didymium oxide (or oxide equivalent) will collectively rise to 16,000 tonnes in 2030, an amount equal to roughly three-times Lynas Corporation’s annual output, or three-times MP Materials’ annual output, of neodymium and praseodymium oxide (or oxide equivalents),” the report reads.
The market researcher also sees the undersupply of Nd, Pr and Dy oxide generating global shortages of NdFeB alloy and powder, which will amount to 48,000 tonnes annually by 2030 – roughly the amount needed for some 25 to 30 million electric vehicle traction motors.
Electric traction motors, commercial EV traction motors and electric bicycles, motorcycles, and scooters are, in fact, expected to be jointly responsible for 23% of total global demand for NdFeB alloys and powders by the end of the decade.
“Considering additional uses of NdFeB magnets in EVs, including micromotors, sensors and speakers, we conservatively forecast that EVs will consume one out of every four tonnes of NdFeB alloy and powder produced globally in 2030,” says Adamas.