Member Info for Crazytowner

It's a very interesting point that none of us know the answer to at present, what will AMC be in the future?

Will all assets be disposed an exceptional dividend issued anf the company closed.
Will AMC be fully taken over
Will we sell the majority of Kun Manie and becoming a minority holder in multiple projects.

Very interesting times ahead

The iron ore price is very important now as the cash reserves built up will be used towards funding the Capex requirements of phase 2.

The conversion to a 19% holding when phase 2 comes online followed by a dividend is where the real value is for AMC

Agreed FB, very positive for the Far East and in line with what we expect they are trying to do to attract investment and development. Nothing boom about it.

Great to see a few old names pop back. It's been a long ride.
I also miss iii, they managed to screw up what was a simple yet effective, well managed, bulletin board.

It seems that many of us that have been here for an age are feeling a massive shift in comfort of our holding here due to the recent activity.

There are two interesting things for me which make me want to hold out for a sale.
1. Mark Selby stating that the numbers coming out of car manufacturers is not reflective of what they are telling analysts.
2. The increase in Nickel within batteries and that it is here for the foreseeable future.

These two factors will have a massive impact on the Nickel price in the future and therefore our NPV. I want us to receive as much as possible when we are inevitably taken over

My understanding is that the debt raised to pay for the BFS will likely be rolled up in the production financing packages further down the line

Whilst there is no such thing as bad publicity, I personally thought the article was extremely lazily researched and missed essential elements.

To say what has happened historically is largely irrelevant is complete rubbish when such items will have a material impact on the NPV that the author later uses in their takeover calculations.

These include 2018 drill results, a seperate copper concentrate, all materials being payable etc. etc.

I don't believe that it is in AMCs interest to convert within the next few years as there won't be any dividends as cash reserves will be built in order to fund (along with debt) the capital costs associated with phase 2.

The dividends that could start shortly after could be very large as well as the possibility of the other owners buying us out

The exciting part is when it converts to a 19% equity stake in 3 years along with phase 2.

Had a quick look back at the detailed edison report issued shortly after the PFS.
It had a 80/20 debt to equity split of which they calculated the equity raise at the current price of 2.6p. This adds circa 4.5 - 6.5 billion shares to their calculation which should now be excluded if we will be able to self fund using our recent investment.

For me it comes down to what i think our true NPV is, how much I think an acquirer will pay and how many shares I think will be in issue at the time.

I think our true value will begin to be released shortly as we now have the security of an income stream and soon to be major offtaker.

Personally I think an NPV of 3 to 4 billion is achieveable when factoring in items such as increased resource, seperate copper concentrate, other metals payable, a higher nickel price, a shared smelter etc. etc.

At bankable feasibility stage I'd be looking for 40% of NPV for a sale. So if we take the lower 3 billion apply 40%, add in a couple of hundred million for our share in roper bar and spread over 1.5bn shares then 75p to £1 is not unreasonable.

Hopefully we will see the updated economic assessment submitted with TEO and edison will provide an updated analysis

Everybody has their targets for what this might be worth in the future. My target is circa 75p ish.

Without going into the edison in too much depth there has been some fundamental changes that they won't have accounted for.

For instance:
They would have assumed sizeable equity dilution to get to productione yet we are led to believe that we can leverage against our new investment to remove further dilution.
They won't have priced in anything for our new investment.
We have been told that our offtake partner is looking to take and pay for all metals, the secondary metals worth billions will have been excluded.
The resource would have been built on 2017 numbers, we know that 2018 is a massive increase.
The Future nickel price used will be low.

I suspect the next full update by them will produce some very different numbers

Anybody seen him?
I have a view on the latest investment but its definitely something I suspect he'll have enjoyed getting his teeth into.
I'm expecting him to have added on this :)

"AMC balls Depp club" lol love it.

.... Seemed like fun 10 years ago, but there has been a lot better rides.... Hopefully the finish is close

He certainly won't be alone in the AMC balls deep club

Happy it is up, but it was a bit of a weird close and not something I have seen before.

The Bid was about 2.33 and the ask was at 2.49 with trades going through at 2.7 all the way up to close.

Nothing surprises me with the share price shenanigans anymore

The cash from the warrants will certainly help towards the investments that are currently under due diligence.

I would rather receive the cash now as the dilution from them has effectively already occurred

Fully agree TDT

TDT, you are right, I miss heard the equity bit

I've watched it again and can't stop smiling. After so many years in this share I feel the end game is now in sight. I don't know what I will do with all my spare time when these boards close :OP

This isn't a guy who is making responses up on the spot, this is somebody who knows exactly what he is talking about and is being as open as he can with shareholders I explaining the way forward.

I agree with TDT that the household known off taker is Glencore, now the interesting part is that discussions are around taking all of our product and that 100% debt is acheiveable with a such a major.

Finally, there is what I believe to be a genuine recognition of the existing share holders and plan to avoid poor dilution.

Going to be an exciting few months. Wouldn't want to be out when the off take is announced

There's not that many interviews I watch twice, this is going to get a third this evening as some very key points in there.

An excellent interview.
Am so pleased that Adam is on board