Member Info for Cranleigh

That's true, OR - good point. I think the only declared holder of bonds nearing 15% is CQS (UK) LLP - the RNS of 30 Mar 17 showed them holding 230 bonds or 11.5% of the issue. At the time of the RNS they held 18m shares and CFDs for 34m shares in Sirius, and per Short Tracker have never shorted above 0.5%. Given CQS are the largest declared CB holder, it looks to me like for your theory to hold it would need to be a "group". I leave others to comment on the legality of any such group acting in concert.

Their risk is that the company can force redemption at par, so they would only get back their original $200K investment (per bond) plus interest at 8.5% up to and including 28 Nov 18. They therefore would not have the benefit of conversion to shares and the associated capital gain. I don't know about "mission creep", but this risk should IMHO cause a rush to convert once holders perceive that the 85% is approaching. Already we have 39% converted, declarable (>0.5% of shares) shorts equivalent to 19%...plus whatever shorts are lurking below the 0.5% level...could well be a total of around 85% either converted or shorts requiring to be closed via conversion or purchase in the market.

...but the desktop one certainly isn’t.

PPVN in my view greatly understates the number of bonds whose owners have shorted the equivalent shares, because he overlooks all shorting below the 0.5% declaration threshold. That threshold represents an original investment of some $7m, and I would think a number of takers went for a nice round $5m or less back in Nov 16. From what JPM indicated to the FT, 80-90% of the bonds have been shorted. So I am far more sanguine than him about how relatively few CB shares have yet to be digested by the market. IMHO a TorP or rwo, and/or an HMG guarantee announcement, and the share price could increase and cause a rash of conversions then a stampede to avoid being one of the 15% at risk of being forced to redeem at par.

I hardly think we are running low on cash, whatever additional commitments on SM14B and downpayments towards big machines there may be. The Feb 2018 Investor Presentation cash flow projection belies that, and the company had �394m in unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and bank deposits at 31 Dec 2017.... The way the RNS re Hancock was worded, it sounds as though it is in SXX's hands to notify them that the capex spend condition had been met....or not. If we decided never to make that notification, because we ended up not needing the cash, who knows what wording there is in the actual contract to protect Hancock's interests - the phrase "inter alia" could cover anything.

HC clear on market expectations for FY 2017/18 and very confident he will meet them: �14m Sales/Top line/Revenue �2.5m EBITDA It's going to be a heck of a H2!

I know which I’d rather be in for 2018 out of bitcoin and IDP! Looking forward to news in a couple of weeks’ time, and probably then back to more sensible SP levels reflecting the huge growth achieved and in prospect here.

Thanks Shandy for your reply and thoughts. When you say that SD exclusivity extension was mentioned “at the AGM”, presumably you mean in some informal chats after the AGM? I was the guy who asked about any impact from the ASA ruling, but certainly heard nothing about extension of SD exclusivity. Mind you, I had a fever that day and had to leave straight after the AGM proper....

Thanks, Mudis. A strange way to disseminate price-sensitive information, and if (as I hope) they got a quid pro quo in terms eg of listing and promoting other IDP brands, could have been turned into a positive for those of us - and the market - who were anticipating much wider UK retail distribution of ST from next January!

I certainly didn't foresee this recent drop. When I asked HC at the AGM whether the ASA ruling had had any adverse impact on either consumer demand for ST or trade relations, his answer was an emphatic "no". I read on another BB that maybe the SD exclusivity for ST has been extended by one year - is that information official or confirmed, anyone? Maybe that rumour/news has been poorly received by some.... Anyhow, my timing of buys in the 300p area looks less than clever, but I take comfort from "time in the market, not time the market"...and I remain very confident of IDP's management, portfolio and prospects. In such a thin market and with a limited free float, I can see us being at say double the present level when next positive news hits.

Wish I had topped-up today instead of over the past week...

Agree, and doubt if these IIs are on board to flip it for the odd 25% or 50% gain, but for a longer term, much bigger prospective gain. I’m topping up again this morning....and seeing if I can make it to the AGM to be able to see the whites of the eyes of our BOD and assess their confidence.

Considering they previously apparently had 2.55%, if my maths is right it looks as thought they have bought an additional 424K shares, or a bit over a quarter of the 1.6m share placing. Wonder which institutions have taken the remainder. If it is spread around we may not get any more TR1s reporting over 3% (428K shares), but who knows....

RNS just now...that's a nice 5.2% holding by a London investment house. Good to see them more than doubling their percentage holding - must have liked what they heard during the placing and any prior meetings.

Thanks, Shandy. I wasn't suggesting any insider knowledge (!) - just that I might have missed an information source that gave this as a fact rather than assumption...and I evidently did miss Croc's post. I am certainly hoping too that once the exclusivity lapses we will be into Boots UK as well as Eire, and indeed into UK supermarkets if they are covered by the exclusivity undertaking.

Welcome, Shandy. My first thought when I read about the Fenwick's deal was that perhaps the SD UK exclusivity is limited to the pharmacy channel, so that we have been and are free to get distribution in eg department stores like Fenwick (who may have their own reasons for wishing to stock from 1 Jan 18), and perhaps also supermarkets like Tesco as you mention. If you have a reliable source for the expiry of SD exclusivity, I would appreciate you pointing me in that direction.

Good to have some Institutions on board, but shame about the placing price and hence dilution! I'm a bit surprised about the timing of the placing. It might have been better say a week after the presumably imminent Trading Statement (last year it was issued on 10 October) - which might have given us a higher SP from which to offer a discount to these new investors. Water under the bridge.... and hopefully with our strong margins and online sales (good for cashflow), no more capital raising will be needed despite the marketing spend and working capital required for international growth.

Thanks, Babbler. All US investors welcome aboard!

Many thanks - a much more sensible percentage! It is still a thin and PI-driven market, it seems to me. A quiet LSE board. All or almost all the trades are "O" - no algorithmic traders. When we start getting into the radar of IIs, which I imagine may happen with news of major UK listings beyond Superdrug, the only way is up - IMHO.

What source do you use to find the free float? Financial Times suggests it is only 1.45m, which seems ridiculously small, like only 11% of the total...