Member Info for Cranleigh

You are misunderstanding.

There are only 11.3m shares still available to satisfy conversions of CBs under the existing Block Listing arrangement; further issues would need individual listing approval or a fresh Block Listing arrangement.

There are by my count 1,221 CBs still outstanding, which if converted would require the issue of 793.9m shares.

while the words "and on budget" were indeed missing, CF did say in the conference call that, while he would not wish to comment on any increase or decrease to the estimated capex, there was no increase to the $3bn requirement.

I read from that we are quite likely to find a decrease when the revised capex total is announced by the end of Q3..

That wouldn't be surprising to me with all the potential cost savings (eg permanent winders, up to 6 months project acceleration [time is money], RBT if so chosen, possible reversion to outsourcing MHF and port....).

If so, Stokey, hardly new news...per LinkedIn, JTS has been our Chief Marketing Officer since Feb 16 responsible for "Global B2B Sales and Business Development including the creation and execution of worldwide sales and marketing strategy"; prior to that he was Sales & Marketing Director from Mar 13 "leading the global sales team responsible for market development of ... POLY4", having joined Sirius in a Business Development role in 09.

Anyhow, a weird conclusion to draw from one unconfirmed post here and the fact that we are not yet at 6.5mtpa TorPs.

My own guess is that (a) the sales team is stable, competent and highly-motivated, and (b) SXX have been waiting to know and negotiate the bankers' requirements before finalising TorP agreements with several potential customers all wanting "early bird" pricing, and so avoid committing to any unnecessary discounted volume.

For what that guess is worth!

That’s honest sxxx4ne - your guesswork built on rumour from one anonymous contributor here. I think I prefer facts and the horse’s mouth, eg this morning’s RNS. JTS was certainly in post when I met him at the AGM, and last week was awarded a bundle of share options....

“Allowing a sales executive who was underperforming to stay so late in the game before he finally left the team has been disastrous.” I must have missed this...

Yesterday the SP information for the shares I am interested in was different as between the mobile and desktop sites. Today posts disappear and reappear, seemingly at random. Nightfly posts about the shares in issue RNS, I reply, then an earlier reply from Scotman appears (sorry, Scotty!), and mine disappears. And similarly for the Farming Today exchange. Admin, hope you are enjoying the weekend, but come Monday....

Not at all, Nightfly, nice though that would be! It is simply meeting the regulatory requirement to confirm at the end of any month in which the number of shares in issue has changed....so no implications whatever for the future.

No conversions at all since the April offer to CB holders - just exercise of an option and issue of shares to Diirectors and the EBT. Hardly surprising at share prices since April, but if SP rises substantially or as November approaches, we could get many IMHO.

Scotman, that’s if the owners of the remaining Convertible Bonds all exercise their rights - as I think most people expect them to - to convert their bonds into shares.

If the calculations of leverage are based on net book value (or indeed market cap to the extent that relates), you need also to take into account the likely conversion of all the remaining CBs into equity ($244m) plus Gina's $300m ($250m royalty purchase plus $50m for shares).

Just don't want folk overlooking trifling sums like $544m....that's a solid addition to the base for lending!

"No thankee very much, Chris. I'll take the straight debt option we've repeatedly been assured of if you don't mind."

Me too!

Even with a straight debt Stage 2 as planned by the BoD, if you assume all remaining CBs convert, Gina subscribes her $50m for shares as agreed and all options are exercised, we are looking at there being prospectively 5.8bn shares in issue....

Enough, already!

CF indicated at the AGM that Boulby appeared to be selling Polyhalite at a higher price than the c$145/tonne reflected in our TorPs to date... and that for an inferior product (“small rocks”). Which makes the banks’ consultant’s assumption of $125/tonne look really very conservative.

Stokey, I don’t think it’s a question of assets, but iof reliable earnings to cover the interest and repayments of principal. After all, with insufficient earnings, what are some holes in the ground and a conveyor belt worth? Hence the need for TorPs....and a government guarantee to fill the gap between what could be borrowed on normal commercial terms with 6-7mtpa of them and the total cash we need. Which itself may be reducing (harbour perhaps outsourced, tunnel maybe dug with only 2 TBMs, VSMs instead of drill & blast, permanent winders...).

I'd be surprised by any conversions at under say 35p by holders who refused the bonus offer.

Declarable (>0.5%) shorts per ShortTracker have increased marginally to 4.04% of our shares in issue or 24% of remaining bonds. And perhaps double that level including non-declarable shorts.

The shares in issue gets updated on the company website as and when new shares are issued, including for the conversion of CBs - so far no change since 19 June, when some options were exercised.

At the end of each month in which the shares in issue changes for any reason, an RNS is issued. Plus there is an RNS summary of CB conversions every 6 months.

“ before that’s formally announced the remaining TorPs will be announced, presumably before the commitment letters go out at the end of the month to lenders.” T’other way around, I think. The commitment letters are surely expected to be sent to SXX by the prospective lenders this month, indicating the amounts they are each willing to lend and all required terms and conditions. Then it will be a matter of SXX fulfilling and/or negotiating those terms and conditions - including further required TorPs. And any HMT guarantee will come last, as it can only serve to persuade lenders to fill a funding gap. That’s how I understand it, anyhow.

Thanks for the various links, Mysotis. I was aware of the ground-breaking at Wilton, but not the planning consent - good news.

Far better to have several small/medium TorPs than one buggy, to spread awareness of the product geographically and spread our risk. Great news and one of those four empty boxes on the sales map filled.

Thanks, Mysotis, and that's in line with my recollection and notes - trying to be "a little bit clever" and go towards premium pricing. Shows confidence that they can shoot for such improved deals and land the "closer to 7m tonnes pa". By way of context, he said Boulby were, in his understanding, selling Polyhalite for more than our TorPs to date will yield...and that for a poorer product - "small rocks"! He also referred to our targeting "blenders and distributors" - a bit of an evolution and a clue there?

I understood it rather to mean that for these remaining prospects CF was looking for ways for SXX to participate in their profitable on selling of Poly 4, eg agree a price formula roughly in line with TorPs to date, but with potential upside for us if the distributor exceeded pre-agreed volume and/or margin levels. Not for the distributor to participate in our profits...let alone provide capital.