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Rebess - I worry Mr Horgan is not at complete liberty to do and say what is in the best interest of shareholders. Yet it is quite confusing to look back at the prior CEO and acknowledge he was let go by this same board of directors for ostensibly not doing a good job. Or did he leave of his own volition - because of the board's inadequacies? We just don't know. What I do know is Centamin has an opportunity to make a fresh start - and Mr Horgan seems like the type of individual who could lead a wayward board down the right path.

I'm working on another LinkedIn post demonstrating the willingness (nay, eagerness) of other mining companies to share the details - perhaps do a little PR work! - of their seismic surveys. I've got ten examples so far. This Controlled Source Audio-frequency Magneto-Telluric survey stuff is relatively new to the metals mining scene yet the results it yields is quite impressive - certainly more detailed than airborne surveys which will indeed be useful to examine the vast new concessions surrounding Sukari

Again I encourage shareholders to send a note to Centamin's IR dept and ask what is going on with the 2019 HiSeis survey results - AND if they do reply please share what that reply is with this chat board.

Examine the timeline --->>>

----->>> Late in 2019, a high resolution 3D seismic reflection survey was completed by HiSeis Ltd, across the northern exposed extent of the Fosterville trend and the Robbins Hill mineralization licence. An area covering 2.5 km x 2.5 km for a 6 km2 block and 179 line kilometres was completed. A total of 18,747 receiver points recording 14,550 vibrator source point sweeps. The survey was collected with geophones at 12.5 m spacing’s and vibrator source point sweeps from 6.25 m to 12.5 m spacing on up to 25m spaced lines. The seismic data shows strong reflectors in the top 3 km with reflection response data still being seen from 6 – 8 km depths.

Preliminary assessment of refraction tomography of the first 300m depth, a by product of the reflection survey, shows high promise for fold and fault architecture detail. It is anticipated that potentially, fault offsets of less than 10 vertical metres will be able to be identified from this data.
Preliminary reflection data which is the primary data collected from the survey, is promising showing fold resolution and closures of less than 30m width. The data is also providing fault information and fault – fold relationships and offsets critical in understanding the distribution of mineralization at the Fosterville Mine.
The complete dataset will provide a targeting and interpretation tool for use in 2021 and beyond to depths in excess of 3 km at the Robbin’s Hill deposit area and strike extents to target with greater drill efficiency

High-Resolution 3D Seismic Survey
The Company completed a high-resolution 3D Seismic survey in the northern part of the Fosterville Mining License over the Robbin’s Hill mineralization trend. The survey was the first of its kind to be undertaken in Victoria for gold exploration and provides a high-resolution 3D dataset to a depth of over 1 km for detailed planning of future of underground development.
Encouragingly, drilling and recent modelling of newly-acquired 3D seismic data clearly establish the potential for other mineralized structures within the Robbin’s Hill area

Drilling programs in the second half of the year will expand to cover targets generated from the interpretation of 3D seismic data integrated with other geophysical data sets (Figure 4).

--->> Then July 30, 2020

Kirkland Lake Gold Announces New High-Grade Intersections at Fosterville Swan Zone, Drilling Expands Robbin’s Hill, Cygnet and Harrier Targets

https://www.kl.gold/news-and-media/press-release-details/2020/Kirkland-Lake-Gold-Announces-New-High-Grade-Intersections-at-Fosterville-Swan-Zone-Drilling-Expands-Robbins-Hill-Cygnet-and-Harrier-Targets/default.aspx

--->>> Then on September 28, 2021 Agnico announces it will buy Kirkland Lake

My Thoughts
The seismic survey information at Sukari is being withheld from Centamin shareholders while they drill out the targets. Ask yourselves to who's benefit are the seismic results being kept secret??

Imagine a company with a 7.6x debt-to-sales ratio, with negative net income, and where interest expenses are a quarter of revenue and climbing. That’s what the government would look like in that higher interest rate scenario.

Is this fixable? Well, not really.

once debt is beyond a certain event horizon where the math doesn’t work anymore, there is basically no amount of spending cuts or tax increases that can persistently reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio without inflating a big chunk of it away.

Either way, now that the math is where it is in terms of debt having reached unmanageable escape velocity, we’re probably stuck with the only option of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates below the prevailing inflation rate for a while.

Furthermore, the US partially de-industrialized itself over recent decades, and began running large trade deficits with other countries. A larger share of our GDP began to consist of consumer spending.

As previously described, consumer spending is now over two-thirds of GDP:

If asset prices fall (which they would almost certainly do if the government cuts spending and increases taxes), it would result in a reverse wealth effect, and probably weaken consumer spending, which would reduce GDP. It would also result in lower tax revenue, further contributing to the deficit

Rather than asset prices reflecting the state of the economy, asset prices are so inflated that they can hurt the economy if they fall.

The US fiscal deficit, as bad as it already is, actually has been lower than it would have otherwise been, thanks to the constantly-increasing asset valuations. Those increasing asset valuations fueled higher consumer spending and higher capital gains tax income. If those asset valuations stop going up structurally as they have been, it can quickly make the fiscal deficit a lot worse

When it comes to my analysis of monetary policy, fiscal policy, and inflation/disinflation in the United States from an investor point of view, I consider the US national debt as being beyond the point of recovery in any sort of real terms.

In other words, regardless of who is elected going forward, I view the range of policies that could potentially allow US government bondholders to be paid back with positive purchasing power to be vanishingly small. Neither Democrat nor Republican administrations will be able to solve the debt problem without holders of cash and bonds losing considerable purchasing power.

https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1490718965957632004

excerpts from a recent article by Lyn Alden

When a country starts getting to about 100% debt-to-GDP, the situation becomes nearly unrecoverable.

What I mean by “unrecoverable” is that there is a vanishingly small probability that the bonds will be able to avoid default

a study by Hirschman Capital noted that out of 51 cases of govt debt breaking above 130% of GDP since 1800, 50 governments have defaulted.

The only exception, so far, is Japan, which is the largest creditor nation in the world. By “defaulted”, Hirschman Capital included nominal default and major inflations where the bondholders failed to be paid back by a wide margin

There’s no example I can find of a large country with more than 100% government debt-to-GDP where the central bank doesn’t own a significant chunk of that debt. Central banks quickly increase their holdings of government debt when the debt gets that large relative to the size of the economy.

Even the US Congressional Budget Office shows that the current forecast is dire, despite the fact that for political reasons they never factor recessions into their forecasts, and recessions result in larger deficits when they occur:

Let’s say that annual GDP is $25 trillion as it will be soon, and that federal debt is 130% of GDP, which would equal $32.5 trillion. If we assume that federal tax revenue is 17% of GDP, that’s $4.25 trillion per year in tax revenue.

So right off the bat, we can calculate that the debt/revenue ratio of the federal government in this example is $32.5 trillion divided by $4.25 trillion, or about 7.6x. If this were a company, it would be junk bond status based on that.

Texas Instruments (TXN), for example, has $7.7 billion in debt and about $17.6 billion in annual revenue, or about a 0.45x ratio of debt to revenue. That’s investment grade, although of course it depends on the profit margins of the company. Texas Instruments currently brings in about $7.3 billion in net income per year, so it has a debt/income ratio of 1.05x. If they devoted most of their net income to paying down debt, they could do so in a little over a year. Any lender can see that they have a good chance of being able to service their debt for the foreseeable future.

The government has a high debt/revenue ratio, and then also has negative income. If it were a company, that would put it down near the bottom of junk bond status at imminent default risk, rather than just normal junk bond status. The financial situation, if analyzed like a company, is abysmal.

From 1942 to 1951, for example, the US Treasury effectively forced the Federal Reserve to monetize US Treasuries and hold interest rates at 2.5% despite running inflation at an average of 6% per year. This was the only prior time in US history where federal debt as a percentage of GDP went over 100%, and they resorted to repressing yields and inflating a large chunk of it away.

The rest here:
https://www.lynalden.com/does-the-national-debt-matt

From Centamin's 2018 Report:

Initial exploration work commenced to construct a robust district 3D geo-seismic architecture of the licence area to depths >1.5km, targeting potential new Sukari-style porphyries.

The first stage of Petrophysics were completed for the application of 3D seismic across the licence area.

By Q3, rock property measurements were conducted where P-wave velocity (Vp) and Density (SG) were measured on Sukari core samples. Vp and SG were logged across three holes that intersect significant mineralisation, geology and structures at Sukari.

HiSeis personnel in consultation with staff at Sukari have chosen the holes where the Acoustic Impedance (AI) obtained from these measurements was used to assess which interfaces will act as reflectors and identify the controls on these relationships. The acquired values were then applied to a schematic geological cross-section, which was then used in numerical simulations to create a forward seismic model.

The surface exploration is focused on creating a detailed geological map of the entire tenement, highlighting areas of enhanced fluid flow, or anomalism, which are prospective for gold fluid movement and deposition.

In 2019, the plan is to complete the 3D seismics across the concession andconstruct a detailed geological map highlighting areas for future exploration.

-------------------->>>

Sent this message to HiSeis via LinkedIn to see if can get some clarity on why the data was unusable:

Interested to confirm if HiSeis did the seismic survey work for Centamin PLC in #Egypt back in 2018/2019 and why the #HiSeis system apparently didn't achieve useable/reliable data? Any follow up/comments would be appreciated.
Thanks. #gold #mining #ASX #AMERoundup2022

Capital Limited Barrick Gold Corporation James Rutherford Martin Horgan Ross Jerrard Sally Eyre Mark Bankes Marna Cloete Catharine Farrow Hennie Faul Leigh Rigg @drchrisgeosci Ron Schop Greg Turner Antony Brockmann Jai Kinkela Jeremy Smith

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:ugcPost:6894162405849477120?commentUrn=urn%3Ali%3Acomment%3A%28ugcPost%3A6894162405849477120%2C6895128528845713408%29

Polite and Professional. Thank you Alex!

For those who haven't been following the thread it was regarding the GREATER Sukari area seismic survey in 2018/2019.

An excerpt from Alex reply:
"The quality of the data was inconclusive and the capital cost to complete the 3D survey was approximately an additional US$7m."

"With the arrival of the new Board and Management team, in H1 2020 all non-essential capital projects were halted subject to several reviews –"

----------------------------------->>>

My Thoughts:
I preface this with the acknowledgement that Centamin's IR team isn't responsible for the actions of the BOD or former CEO. So my criticism/questions that follow are directed at the board who were present during 2018 until this day - not Mr Horgan or the IR team

1) Why are we just learning about this now - after someone asks? If the data was inconclusive let the market know. Seismic surveys are not magic - the data is interpreted - i.e. expect competing interpretations.
Also, what are the reasons the survey was deemed inconclusive? Who did the survey? Are they reputable? If there was an issue on the survey's implementation was a 'redo' requested? These things aren't cheap - how much did it cost?

1b) Considering the questionable nature of the multi-year drilling campaign we apparently got from Batie West - is there a pattern of shoddy hires and projects not being carried out to a satisfactory completion? Who on the BOD is taking responsibility?

2) The timeline of when this seismic work was carried out 2018/2019 vs when non-essential capital projects were put on hold mid 2020 does not line up. Obviously the decision to NOT spend the extra $7 million to complete the survey was taken well before Horgan's arrival sometime in 2019. By whom? Andrew Pardey? The former CEO who the BOD said retired without a word of explanation? The former CEO who is far from retired - now in control of multiple gold miners?

None of this secrecy bodes well for the company going forward. If we can't trust the current BOD's decision making or their willingness to advise shareholders of money spent on botched projects then we need a new slate of directors. Too many mysteries. To many dropped balls.

As it is too many Centamin shareholders accept the BOD's zero accountability - simply shrug their shoulders and bury their heads.

*** I would hope other shareholders would repeat my call to press Centamin to
1) release the damn seismic survey results
2) explain why the results are/were deemed inconclusive and unworthy of completion (and who deemed them so)
3) tell us if there are plans to get a proper seismic survey done.

As Goldgnome pointed out - seismic surveys are FAR more detailed and precise at unlocking the underground geology than an airborne survey (which is now in the works) the comparison is like apples to watermelons

Start watching video at 5:45 to see seismic survey results from Perseus' Yaouré Gold Mine in central Côte d’Ivoire from 2020

https://youtu.be/2MuC-pA6jzU

Remember, Centamin had a similar seismic survey done at Sukari as outlined in this market update in 2018/2019:

------------------------------>>>
In 2018, the Company began a multi-staged geo-seismic programme to create a 2D
and 3D architecture of the Sukari license up to a 1.5km depth, with the
objective of identifying additional porphyries and resource potential. A 2D
seismic survey and Full Wave Sonic bore hole log was run across the main
Sukari structures.

Throughout Q2, three 10km 2D seismic lines were set out in an east-west and
north-south orientation, with final ground preparation to be completed in
early Q3, ahead of the full seismic acquisition.

Late in Q2 two surface drill rigs arrived on site to commence multiple work
programmes, including supporting the seismic drill programme; geotechnical
drilling for the new tailings storage facility site; and drilling priority
regional greenfield exploration targets.
<<<--------------------------

My Thoughts:

I feel that Centamin shareholders should have already been provided the results of these surveys. After all we paid for them.

Think about it - it is highly likely any potential suitor (like Barrick) would be granted access to this info already - as well, several if not all of those 5 employees that swapped positions between Barrick & Centamin would have seen the results (the latest who left for Barrick most intimately familiar with the details)

Isn't it time shareholders are informed?

Withholding information is what led to the blindside waste clearing project that's costing us $350 million to catch-up. Let's not get blindsided again - for all we know there could be a huge porphyry deposit already identified yet only know by suitors, former employees and new Barrick hires.

Centamin touts it is making ESG a priority. They can start by improving governance - BOD , please inform your shareholders of the results of the Sukari 2018/2019 seismic surveys NOW.

Can The Fed Really Afford To Raise Rates?

Frank Giustra article below:
----------->
But if you listen to Fed chair Jerome Powell, along with almost any of the Wall Street talking heads, you would be led to believe that the current $120-billion (U.S.) monthly QE can be tapered, and that rates can eventually be normalized. In turn, the markets trade as if these words are gospel. It’s as if everyone wishes to be blissfully ignorant of several annoying facts.

The facts, among other things, are that global debt has more than doubled since the 2008 financial crisis to $300 trillion (U.S.). Everyone is levered to the hilt; corporations, hedge funds, individuals and, most importantly, governments. U.S. federal debt has tripled since 2008 and is now touching on $30 trillion. In 2020, the U.S. government spent $371 billion on interest* payments on its debt. And that’s at near zero interest rates! If the Fed allowed interest rates to rise in any material way, the U.S. government would either default or — more likely — enter an endless cycle of money printing. Even at current rates and with the ongoing multi-trillion dollar annual budget deficits, the die is cast. We have clearly sailed past the event horizon of an enormous black hole.

There is an aspect of the current situation that policy-makers never acknowledge. After 60 years of Fed fund rates averaging five to six per cent, when the 2008 crisis hit the Fed’s monetary policy then landed us in a permanent range that hovers between zero and slightly above two per cent. All attempts to raise rates above two per cent have failed, mostly due to Wall Street market tantrums. Meanwhile, inflation is hovering around six per cent, which means that real interest rates are deep in negative territory to the tune of -4.5 per cent

So why does the Fed lie and why do market players believe them? Quite simply, the truth would create a panic that nobody wants. They are in an inescapable trap and they know it. The best the Fed can hope for is some divine intervention or, at the very least, that they can kick the can down the road and pray history won’t remember their names.

So the Fed pretends. They choose their words very carefully to ensure that fragile markets don’t get spooked, while appeasing the inflation critics with promises of normalization. Their primary objective these days is to “anchor’” inflation expectations such that it doesn’t become self-reinforcing. They do this by using phrasing like “inflation is only transitory.” (Which they recently dropped.)

Economist Mohamed A. El-Erian points to the recklessness of “Fed" "...they include inappropriate framing, confirmation biases, narrative inertia, and resistance to a loss of face. Yet, its persistence in the face of repeatedly contradictory data seriously increases the risk of otherwise-avoidable economic, financial, institutional and social damage.”

https://frankgiustra.com/posts/the-feds-big-lie-that-much-of-the-world-has-bought-int

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