Member Info for Cowichan

"Our policy is to treat all shareholders equally. Therefore, we do not hold discussions with analysts nor large institutions. Whenever possible, also, we release important communications on Saturday mornings in order to maximize the time for shareholders and the media to absorb the news before markets open on Monday."
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My Thoughts:
The rather new phenomenon of ESG manifestos - or the practice where companies toot their horns about how 'woke' they are - doesn't hold a candle to that short & simple Berkshire policy

Such a policy is the necessary foundation of shareholder engagement and accountability upon which all ESG frameworks can then be built

PS --> Centamin BOD's - this would be a HIGHLY beneficial policy to adopt if you are serious in regaining shareholder trust

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/26/read-warren-buffetts-annual-letter-to-berkshire-hathaway-shareholders.html

Thanks for the input Softrock!

Your back of the envelope figures are helpful - but would be all the more helpful if Centamin provided the figures.

What if it only adds 40k ounces per year extra - or 30k ounces - or less?

What if the waste clearance could have been undertaken albeit at a slower pace but far cheaper using Centamin's own fleet? What would the cost comparison/advantage look like?

Shareholders should be privy to real data points. But alas we are kept in the dark.

Trusting Centamin's BOD to do the smart thing hasn't been a winning bet as the drip, drip, drip downward flow of the share price proves.

Anybody else think that it shouldn't take a bloody war to make a positive effect on Centamin's share price?

I compiled this 5 year share price comparison yesterday before gold popped - but the stats still apply as we've only moved up relative to others moving up too.

5 year share price performance
Centamin Down 42%
B2Gold Up 21%
Barrick Up 17%
Endeavour Up 21%
Newmont Up 89%
Yamana Up 78%
Kinross Up 41%
AngloGold Up 97%
Pretium Up 27%
Centerra Up 79%
Equinox Up 10%
K92 Up 728%
Osisko Up 7%

And the main reason Centamin is DOWN while the other miners are UP all comes down to one incident - the movement of the open pit wall.

I noticed somebody asked this morning when the pit wall would be fixed. The fact that he/she had to ask is just another example of Centamin's poor communication with the market.

I'll go out on a limb and say the pit wall was 'fixed' quite soon (maybe 4-6 months?) after the Capital waste clearing project started - but we are left to guess at the exact moment Centamin restarted mining from the area below 'the incident' because nobody officially told us.

The ORIGINAL announcement of the pit wall incident and the subsequent awarding Capital a $260 million 'fix it' contract was done haphazardly - in retrospect perhaps notifying the market of such a minor event wasn't even necessary.

Think about it - didn't management assure us these minor pit wall movements are common and are prone to happen in all large open pits at some point? So why did they make a big deal of it?

Also consider that spending a similar amount of money ($260 million ) would almost pay for the entire proposed mining complex in Cote D'Ivoire - which rightly needs many careful financial studies including a preliminary economic assessment, a definitive feasibility study, etc.

Then how is it that Capital got this ENOURMOUS contract and shareholders were all told of it after the fact?

Can anybody tell me if the added accessible ore will eventually pay back this huge expenditure? No? That's because we've not been given the financial rationale as one would expect when spending this amount of money.

Bottom Line - some members of Centamin's board of directors are not to be trusted - they've made too many mistakes and have shown zero accountability. Anything that gets proposed in the future better be fully explained and rationalized prior to pulling the trigger because all forms of forced accountability including legal action is now on the table.

I agree with all you've said but to be clear I won't be calling in any questions to Centamin.

As far as I'm concerned the three email replies I received from Investor Relations in the last two weeks on the topic of the HiSeis survey let's me know the only way to get actual compliance with regulatory disclosure obligations is through other means.

For the record this is my original email sent to IR :

Attn: Investor Relations

Would Centamin consider publishing the results of the 2D & 3D geo-seismic programme that it undertook around Sukari in 2018 ?

The results would better inform shareholders of the company's future prospects.

And their replies ( the parts that were relevant to my question )

... as you know, we looked into this for Sukari and in 2019 we trialled a 2D seismic survey to see what the data showed. The quality of the data was inconclusive...

...as per our email correspondence below, the Sukari 2D seismic was a trial of the technology. That means the technology was trialled over known gold structures. No material information from that study has been withheld. The technology confirmed several of the structures...

------------------------------------------

So, from those two contradictory statements alone it's clear shareholders aren't being told the whole truth -

Either the data WAS inconclusive (something both HiSeis and Centamin's own 2019 Annual Report refute) or the survey did confirm several of the structures - as stated here:

https://www.centamin.com/media/1605/cey-rns_fy19_final_180520.pdf

"A 2D geoseismic programme was completed during 2019. Initial data interpretation is very encouraging, identifying multiple potential gold systems and exploration targets"

Centamin's previously announced 10k meter exploratory drill program around Sukari is likely complete now with assay results pending - and given the above quote from Centamin's Annual Report the HiSeis 2D survey results were crucial in choosing the targets.

Why Centamin should choose to play both sides on this issue is anyone's guess - my conclusion is they have chose to keep the details secret from the market - perhaps to appease a third party.

My concern is that our share price is being kept artificially low these last 2 years through focusing on (and creating?) bad news while burying the good news.

That is a topic I hope one of my fellow shareholders can 'call in' and raise - sharing this post might also be helpful.

1)
https://www.keystonelaw.com/lawyers/sandra-bates

Corporate lawyer Sandra is an expert adviser on cross-border corporate transactions, particularly those involving Africa, Canada or the US. Sandra’s expertise includes advising on IPOs and equity capital markets transactions, mergers and acquisitions, reverse takeovers, strategic investments and joint ventures.

Sandra is experienced in working with publicly listed and private companies in the mining, oil and gas, and technology sectors on equity capital markets and other corporate transactions. She advises many long-standing clients on investments and M&A strategies.

Sandra also has in-house legal experience having spent time as a senior M&A adviser at Citigroup in New York and acting as General Counsel to Avesoro Resources and Altus Strategies Plc.

2)
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tiffani-potesta-a55b9a5/

Chief Strategy Officer (CSO) at Schroders*

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Note: Schroders* owns around 7% of Centamin shares

Reminder - why not send a note to Centamin's IR about the missing HiSeis survey results? Can't hurt to ask.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_centamin-gold-hiseis-activity-6901664738980315136-f7Dc

- Bristow says Barrick is looking to buy copper assets and wants to focus on areas that some rivals find forbidding.

“These are clearly countries where we have a competitive advantage over traditional copper miners from the Western world that are too scared to go to those countries,” he said. “We are comfortable in the African environment.”

- Barrick aims to boost its gold production to 4.8 million ounces annually by the end of decade

- The company says it owns or has stakes in six of the 10 top gold mines in the world—defined as those with at least 500,000 ounces of annual production, a 10-year reserve life or more and below-average costs globally

“If you’re going to run a world- class business, you have to be global and Barrick is global,” Bristow said. “You can’t keep running back to the safe havens in the world. Some of the assets are not going to be in perfect addresses.”

- Operating in Africa, the developing world –and anywhere — means forging ties with political leaders and employing local people at the mines and as managers

* “In every single country in which we operate, I know the leader of that country personally—except for the U.S. I can pick up the phone and call them or send them a WhatsApp or email and they will respond to me because we have built a relationship.”

- Bristow, a swashbuckling South African who likes big-game hunting, keeps a punishing travel schedule, visiting each one of Barrick’s 17 global mines each quarter over a six-week period.

“We start in North America and go to Africa and then Papua New Guinea and then to Argentina and Chile and up to the Dominican Republic and come back to Toronto for the quarterly” results, he said.

** He wants Barrick’s directors to see the operations and holds two board meetings a year at a mine.

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*I wonder, does Bristow already have President Sisi's number in his phone?

**Also, I like the idea of holding board meetings at a mine site - as long at the BOD's fly commercial of course

Bristow must be the most informed & hands-on CEO in the mining industry if the above travel details are indeed true

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-barrick-golds-ceo-is-looking-to-boost-its-copper-business-51645281013?redirect=amp

Johannesburg, 24 January 2022
Announcement relating to the proposed acquisition of the Santa Rita and Serrote mines in
Brazil : On 26 October 2021 Sibanye-Stillwater announced that it had entered into purchase... 100% of the Santa Rita nickel/ Serrote copper mine, both located in Brazil, for a cash consideration of US$1.0 Billion
The Company has been advised a geotechnical event occurred...
Accordingly Sibanye-Stillwater, has today given notice of termination...

(And the sellers reply)

Response to Sibanye-Stillwater’s termination of agreement to purchase Brazil assets

Appian notes Sibanye-Stillwater’s surprising announcement dd. 24 January 2022, and believes there to be no basis for Sibanye-Stillwater to lawfully terminate...

The geotechnical event that Sibanye is referencing amounts to a localized fracture that occurs in normal course open pit operations. To remedy the condition of the area in question, some amount of additional waste will need to be mined earlier in the mine plan...

...which equates to less than 1% of the mine’s volume over a 34 year mine life. Appian does not agree that this constitutes a material adverse event.

Appian is currently assessing all of its legal options and will take all necessary action to enforce its legal rights.

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The situation is not unlike what happened at Sukari - i.e. a 'localized fracture' blooming into a sudden imperative to expedite waste clearance -

Makes me wonder if perhaps the Brazilian locals didn't want to be acquired by a SA company -

Regardless Appian stands to lose, they being the intermediate between parties

One interesting side effect of posing questions to Centamin via LinkedIn has been the associated metadata (who read what, where they work, etc.)

Apart from the usual suspects having read and reread (some of the number of views is crazy high) the most common organizations have been who you'd expect i.e. the EMRA, Capital, Buchanan, Barrick, Centamin, etc.) but there have been a few outliers - most notably from their sudden arrival & volume of hits is Rio Tinto

I'm not invested in Rio so I haven't typically read their news or quarterlies (except the recent brouhaha re: bullying/sexism) so I checked them out.

Apparently they are making a big push into reducing their carbon footprint and other ESG initiatives - solar power to play a big part. One of their fancy charts shows the sunny Egypt region which they are apparently keen to exploit for said carbon reduction efforts.

Given Rio Tinto is part owners with Turquoise Hill at Oyu Tolgoi they actually do produce a fair amount of gold already as a by-product of copper production. Why they are looking at my Centamin posts en masse is anyone's guess - but perhaps Egypt is now an attractive destination given you could essentially produce copper & gold from any number of the concessions Centamin has been awarded - and with the right planning - using a lot less fossil fuel from day one.

Energy prices don't need to be such a wild card for miners - solar helping to bring predictability

Barrick AISC
2020 $967
2021 $1,026
2022 $1,040 - $1,120 estimated

"Bristow said energy was the biggest driver of cost increases, and Barrick’s solar power facilities at mines in Nevada and Mali would help reduce its power costs."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/article-miner-barrick-gold-announces-1-billion-share-buyback-posts-higher/

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*There, I said something positive about Centamin!

Tibbs,
Thanks for your reply!
Given that I annoy myself with the steady stream of mostly negative posts I appreciate this board's (and your!) tolerance. I miss the days when all I would post is how management was on the right track and pushing production up & up! I do believe Centamin can return to that exceptional performance and perhaps very soon. The prospects of Egypt are enormous and there is no company in a better position to take advantage than Centamin. Mr Horgan has so far managed to make a great impression - getting the basics /foundations right at Sukari to build on - hiring him looks to be the best decision the BOD have made in a long time. But it hardly makes up for the past and as you say - with so many missteps - some of them should graciously bow out of the picture.

Bobliz35 - yes, please do send the post(s) - Having our group of shareholders get vocal is exactly what I'd hoped might happen. I agree that for anyone wishing to take advantage of our current share price underperformance - raising a flag might give them pause. Also, it's good to get your perspective and insights on the regulatory system in the UK - thank you!

Hi Tibbs,
I want to agree with you but I hesitate to blindly trust the current BOD. Apologies for the rant in advance - it's directed at the BOD's - not you:

1) It was the current board who approved the HiSeis survey - not some replacement board who only operated in 2019. And it's the SAME board who is denying us seeing the results.

Isn't there a pattern with the BOD in spending our money wastefully?

Let's do an audit.

Maybe $100 million spent at Batie West/West Africa over a decade with nothing to show.

$260 million to be spent in the open pit "emergency waste removal" program. Will it all be recouped? I dunno. But just trust us, it was definitely needed.

Remember it's Capital Drilling that 'won' the waste removal award. A pretty sweet deal. And Capital Drilling have 'salesmen' just like HiSeis have 'salesmen'. Any argument down the road coming that it wasn't actually necessary to remove urgently? Any alternate plan proposed that saw Centamin's own fleet do the job - albeit at a slower pace?

All we've been doing is blindly accepting the decisions of the same BOD's - until a few years later when they tell us (or don't tell us - we just figure it out) that an error has been made.

How about avoiding the errors in the first place? How about getting a better slate of board members?

But back to Centamin's totally useless, why-did-we-bother, experimental, test trial, too expensive HiSeis survey.

Kirkand Lake hired HiSeis in 2019 for its Fosterville mine - the results were stunning, detailed and invaluable. In Kirkland Lake's own words it was "critical in understanding the distribution of mineralization at the Fosterville Mine" And it led to Angico Eagle launching the takeover. Talk about a waste of money on the wrong technology!

For those who want an education on the technology used at Fosterville - GeoHug interviewed HiSeis on its program in January 2022 - the video link is here https://youtu.be/2MuC-pA6jzU

The reality is that seismic isn't just for oil & gas anymore - the video is a good source of factual information - unlike Centamin's IR dept. ( on this subject at least )

Also, Perseus hired HiSeis in 2020 for their Yaouré Gold Mine in central Côte d’Ivoire - they couldn't be more pleased with the results ( which are discussed at 5:45 onwards here --->

https://youtu.be/2MuC-pA6jzU

Bottom Line: I don't believe Centamin's IR Dept. telling us the HiSeis survey was a bust - Centamin is simply keeping that information private for the benefit of third parties with which they've probably signed a NDA and fear releasing the HiSeis info at this time might breach the agreement. That is yet another mistake by the BOD's.

Anyone who agrees please send this and my last chat post to Centamin's IR and if they reply we can compare notes

That said I totally understand we all have our own opinions - mine certainly can be wrong - just have a look at the videos and draw your own conclusions

An excerpt from Centamin IR latest reply (parenthesis all their words - not mine)

" Accusation of misleading statements in the Annual Report - Centamin have not made any misleading statements in the Annual Report... "

"... the Sukari 2D seismic was a trial of the technology. That means the technology was trialed over known gold structures. No material information from that study has been withheld. The technology confirmed several of the structures, but management concluded not to allocate capital to the 3D seismic survey..."

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My Thoughts:
Figured I needed to keep fellow shareholders in the loop as to Centamin's replies. If anybody has had other replies regarding the HiSeis survey and they would like to share - please do.

A few points of contention:

1) The original response I got from Centamin said "in 2019 we trialed a 2D seismic survey to see what the data showed. The quality of the data was inconclusive"

How then in their latest response can they say the HiSeis survey "confirmed several of the structures" Either it did or it didn't!

2) Remember that Centamin's Audited Annual results of 2019 states " ...initial data interpretation is very encouraging, identifying multiple potential gold systems and exploration targets..."

3) To date NO HiSeis data, graphs or details other than that extremely positive statement in Centamin's Annual Results has been shared with Centamin shareholders or the general market.
The HiSeis survey results however can and probably already has been shared with interested 3rd parties.

4) The 10k meter brownfield drill campaign around Sukari (which is now likely concluded) relied on the data obtained from the HiSeis survey to pinpoint drill targets - which makes the seismic survey data highly, highly relevant and most certainly 'material' which means they are legally bound to share it with the market

I continue to call on Centamin's management to release the results of the HiSeis survey to its shareholders and the general market immediately.

Please share this chat post with Centamin IR if you too agree

here's the linkedin post IR has an issue with
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_centamin-sukari-gold-activity-6897246917709955072-Mzmo

In an interview on Wednesday, Mark Bristow was asked about the wave of mergers and acquisitions in the industry over the last few months.

“Everyone thought we were going to do something stupid in the last quarter – we didn’t do that,” said Bristow.

“We’re very focused on a disciplined approach to any M&A – we’re not shy on doing deals that create value for our stakeholders, but we are guided very clearly by our investment focus and we are disciplined in that manner.”

video
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/barrick-ceo-calls-recent-takeover-wave-over-the-top-1.1724360

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Which company was the 'stupid thing' everybody thought Barrick would buy last quarter?

Egypt International Mining Show
530 followers
5h • 5 hours ago
Follow
We are excited to Welcome Centamin PLC as Featured Gold Sponsor for 3rd Egypt International Mining Show - Virtual Connect 2022.

Centamin's principal asset, the Sukari Gold Mine, is a long-life, bulk tonnage open pit and underground operation. It began production in 2009 and is the first large scale modern gold mine in Egypt, as well as one of the world’s largest producing mines, forecast to produce in excess of 400,000 ounces per annum with a 12 year life of mine. The Company’s solid financial position, strong cash flows and development and operating experience provide us with a significant advantage in acquiring and developing other gold projects. We recognise our responsibility to not only deliver operational and financial performance but to create lasting mutual benefit for our stakeholders through good corporate citizenship. Website:- https://www.centamin.com/

Register here:- https://bit.ly/3qauUcp

Martin Horgan | Emilie Hodson | Howard Bills | Alexandra Barter-Carse | Amr Hassouna | Ross Jerrard

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It seemed so odd they never participated before - wonder what has changed?

3 hours ago 2 applicants

Metallurgist
Metso Outotec Marsa Alam, Al Bahr al Ahmar, Egypt On-site
Full-time

https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/2916774808/?refId=4USijEYQQ9uHhS3t8%2FdwrQ%3D%3D

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Previously all I've seen of Metso involvement at Sukari was supplying new mill liners. Does this mean there could be processing plant expansion plans at Sukari? Or perhaps some different ores to be processed? Other??

Ahmed Mohamed Abu-El-Naga Deputy Chief Mining Engineer at Centamin Egypt/Pharaoh Gold Mines
2h • 2 hours ago

The road to the top of Sukari Hill.
It's been one of the most significant moments so far to reach the top of the great mountain of Sukari.
for those who have been at Sukari before, they know how hard a job it. with thorough persistence and effort we finally made it to the top.
Many thanks to the whole OP team who worked so hard to achieve this goal and special thanks to the rock breaker operators who paved the way to the top.
to infinity and beyond ??????
#team #openpit #Sukari #gold #mining

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ahmedabouelnaga_team-openpit-sukari-activity-6899038152204656640-KJdj

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/abdallah-saaed-9a6a5a22b_sukari-gold-mlnes-egypt-activity-6898514373980098560-Zl_-

https://twitter.com/jfostertm/status/1492666174663921664

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_geological-survey-data-samples-activity-6898397946308636672-eTPd

Centamin PLC shareholders call on management to reveal the results of the 2019 HiSeis geological survey. Follow the example of other responsible mining companies who value transparency & disclosure over withholding crucial data from shareholders. #tsx #mining #investing

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I'm encouraged by more than a few executives from an array of organizations taking notice

You're right Goldgnome - the examples I plan to share are CSAMT surveys - the examples of which are more readily available than HiSeis seismic surveys

My hope is to shame Centamin management into capitulation

Kenny Yip, CFA, CAIA
Investment Banking Associate at RBC Capital Markets | Cross-border M&A | Mining & Diversified

https://www.linkedin.com/in/kenny-yip/recent-activity/