Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
1 with Centamin's accounting firm PWC
1 with UK's accounting firm watchdog
1 with FCA
1 with OSC
and 1 with what I'll call 'other' for now
that's probably keeping Mr Horgan busy ( so busy the CFO gave the Denver Gold Forum talk?)
A word about current CFO Ross Jerrard - he did serve as Interim CEO from December 2019 to April 2020 while the last CEO Mr Pardey considered his retirement
Caveat: I'm not downramping as some like to comment - I've no intention of buying shares until the important accounting questions/concerns I've alerted regulators about are addressed publicly
Great interview - a must watch for any mining CEO (or resource extractive investor!)
the fixable problem is never the gold price , but managing corporate expenses - if enough thought is given to building in profit - to h*ll with 'market manipulation' , the US economy or triple witching expiries - cuz it won't matter
why the gold mining industry is fraught with pump & dump share $ disasters is probably the caliber of executives lured into the industry , for some reason there's always a fresh crop of 'end of the world - gold is going to the moon' types ready to give them their money
Centamin Plc
@CentaminPlc
đ„łâïžâĄCelebrating 1yr of #solar power generation at #Sukari. Since commissioning last September, the project has successfully saved ~22m litres of diesel and lowered emissions by ~59kt CO2-e.
âĄïžPlans are underway to expand it!
#CEY #SolarEnergy #decarbonisation #Mining #Egypt
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the Centamin PR team hard at work on twitter (earning their well deserved share bonuses)
- the waste moving coming to 'an end' will help both
- connecting to Egypt's electrical grid may not help either
in regards to the latter;
"Egypt generates almost all of its electricity from fossil gas and oil (almost 90% in 2022). Electricity production is rising rapidly, driven entirely by increasing fossil gas generation. Renewables made up 11% of the mix in 2022, with only 4.5% coming from wind and solar."
So then, connecting to the grid is not exactly a home run for the environment - and maybe not worth the risk given energy prices in Egypt will likely only rise. also there is the risk of more energy interruptions
Egypt Buys Oil Hedge to Stave Off Volatility as Economy Squeezed
In a recent statement to Bloomberg, Egyptian Finance Minister Mohamed Maait revealed that, taking place during the current fiscal year, Egypt has hedged its oil supply. While not disclosing further details, the minister did note that Egyptâs imports total about 150 million barrels of oil a year.
As one of the few countries to do so, Egypt engages directly in the oil derivatives market to lock in supplies, wrote Bloomberg. These are closely watched by options traders and dealers as they can make the governments involved significant market players, the news site explained.
Earlier this month, an unnamed government official was cited by Asharq Business who revealed that Egypt purchased hedging contracts covering 35 percent of its estimated oil imports for fiscal year 2023/2024 against the risks of rising global oil prices.
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/127270/Egypt-to-hedge-oil-supply-during-FY2023-2024-finance-minister
Bitcoin? Few would answer yes.
How about gold? Same.
Ruble? Yuan? Euro? Yen? Good luck.
So what threatens the USD?
One could argue the strength of the USD is derived from the belief the USA is the strongest militarily, economically, etc.
So then the question becomes, has the US dollar become de facto gold?
If yes, then nothing - no downturn, no debt, will replace it.
Excess debt issuances can always be repurchased by the Fed - so perhaps the economic catastrophe that will 'one day' be good for gold - never arrives.
PS Just thinking out loud - I know nobody invested in a gold miner happily considers anything but a bullish gold view as the world crumbles under the wight of debt (alas, I also have several gold juniors in my portfolio) still one must plan for all scenarios
Sept. 25, 2023, at 9:04 a.m.
CAIRO (Reuters) -Egypt will hold a presidential vote on Dec. 10-12, the elections authority said on Monday, with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi widely expected to win reelection despite an economic crisis including record inflation and foreign currency shortages.
Sisi, 68, can stand for a third term due to constitutional amendments in 2019 that also extended the length of presidential terms to six years from four, opening the way for him to stay in office until at least 2030.
Sisi was declared winner of both the 2014 and 2018 elections with 97% of the vote. In 2018 he faced just one opponent, himself an ardent Sisi supporter, after the main challenger was arrested and other hopefuls pulled out, citing intimidation.
Election results are expected to be announced on Dec. 23 and, in the event of a run off round, final results should be announced on Jan. 16 at the latest, the election authority said.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-09-25/egypt-to-hold-presidential-election-dec-10-12
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dictator playbook rule # 634 ; secure power before the economic crap hits the fan
At the Denver Gold Forum
https://www.goldforumamericas.com/company-session/3042/
10:07-17 September 2023
An Egyptian lawmaker has revealed that the first review by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of Egyptâs economic reform program, initially scheduled for September, has been postponed for the second time.
It is now anticipated to take place in the first quarter of 2024.
âThe initial review by IMF experts this month will not proceed due to the governmentâs delay in fulfilling some of the commitments it made with the IMF under the recent agreement,â said Yasser Omar, the Deputy Chairman of the parliamentary Planning and Budget Committee.
https://english.aawsat.com/business/4551346-imf-economic-review-egypt-delayed-q1-2024
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Also, Egypt's Supreme Administrative Court had set September 2 , 2023 to consider Centamin's appeal:
"As per the provisions of Egyptian Civil Procedures Law, Centamin's subsidiary, PGM, has submitted an application to the SAC to resume the Appeal proceedings and request the SAC to reject the original case in its entirety in accordance with the provisions of Law 32"
but that came and went, too
2023/09/14
The Egyptian government has reached an agreement with Gulf sovereign funds that invested in Egyptian companies to postpone the distribution of dividends for three years, according to sources familiar with the matter. The sources told Daily News Egypt that the Central Bank of Egypt will guarantee the necessary dollar liquidity to transfer the investorsâ profits into foreign currency after the end of the period.
The agreement is part of the investment guarantee agreement signed by the government with Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding and the Saudi Public Investment Fund, which are among the most prominent investors in Egyptian companies. The government also pledged to protect the value of their investments and provide a guaranteed return of 8% annually for four years, after deducting taxes and exit fees.
The agreement covers the recent investments made by Abu Dhabi Holding in three government companies: National Drilling Company, Egyptian Linear Alkyl Benzene, and the Egyptian Ethylene and Derivatives Company, worth $800m. It also covers the investments made by the Saudi Egyptian Investment Company, affiliated with the Saudi Public Investment Fund, in four major Egyptian companies: e-finance, Abu Qir Fertilizers, Misr Fertilizers Production Company, and Alexandria Container and Cargo Handling, worth $1.3bn. These investments were announced in August 2023.
In addition, the agreement includes the investments made by Abu Dhabi Holding in five companies listed on the Egyptian Exchange, worth $1.85bn. These investments were announced in April 2023.
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Somewhere in his palace in New Cairo Sisi is smiling wryly while listening to the Eagles...
Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
"Relax," said the night man
"We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave
22 August 2023
Project completions âSĂ©guĂ©la (CĂŽte dâIvoire), Motheo (Botswana), BomborĂ© (Burkina Faso), Talison MSA (Western Australia), CobrĂ© Ball Mill 6 (Panama), Navachab (Namibia), Sukari Paste Plant (Egypt)
https://www.listcorp.com/asx/lyl/lycopodium-limited/news/investment-presentation-fy2023-2912659.html
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Also, it's revealing how those who offer/post zero genuine input about Centamin's business spout criticism about others 'not knowing' about Centamin
Such mucks are not investors, they are lug nuts with too big a diameter hole
September 15, 2023
An overvalued Egyptian pound increases the risk of default - Capital Economics
Authorities mut act soon on the exchange rate to ease the economic crisis the London-based think tank said in a report
rumours that Egyptian authorities would not embark on any devaluation of the pound until the presidential elections are concluded. The actual date of the poll has not been announced yet; however, media reports suggest that it might take place in December.
The London-based think tank contends that Egyptian government is âplaying a dangerous gameâ by delaying another devaluation of the local currency. As the pound is losing more of its value on the back market, policy makers should act soon in order to secure the second tranche of the IMF loan and encourage the Gulf to pump investments in Egypt
Yet the currency is believed to be significantly overvalued. Officially, it trades at 30.9/$; however, it reached 40/$ on the black market.
Earlier this year, the Egyptian government unveiled a plan to privatize dozens of state-owned enterprises, inviting foreign, mainly Gulf-based, investors to join in. The dualism in the exchange rate has been seen as the main reason why the program has failed to attract significant investments from Arab Gulf countries.
https://www.zawya.com/markets/currencies/an-overvalued-egyptian-pound-increases-the-risk-of-default-capital-economics-vwmrlyd5
My highly biased opinion to the thread:
"This looks good to me - they are right on top of operational detail..."
Sure, except we are 3 years into a 4 year contract. Perhaps looking to discover inefficiencies/errors in reporting could have been done sooner? At least that is how a Centamin shareholder might look at the situation. But , yes - as a Capital shareholder, anything that might extend the contract beyond 4 years would be welcome. And let's not forget inflated figures would cost Centamin and benefit Capital with bonuses.
"Luckily Centamin aren't letting them get away with it"
Again, is this a case of closing the barn door after the horses get out? Also, it's more likely Capital initiated this trial - as it only involves Capital equipment, contract drivers, managers and so forth - so if they aren't delivering, in the end one would think it could reflect badly on Capital.
Then again it's possible EMRA is becoming more interested in how monies are spent - they have equal right to question and demand proof of such an expensive project's a) necessity b) delivery c) reimbursement (or denial)
Interesting stats in the trial results link below (i.e. distances to haul waste , etc.) but a few standouts
25th August 2023
1) "The data also demonstrated several areas for improvement â first the mine was underequipped with trucks, meaning the plan was set up to fail. Night shifts consistently delivered more loads than day shifts. Examination of this variation revealed that night shift operators were travelling to the shortest/nearest dump location rather than following the plan."
2) "From a challenge standpoint, the physical technology infrastructure required was limited by availability of tablets and challenges associated with importing additional units."
https://im-mining.com/2023/08/25/groundhog-open-pit-fms-helps-capital-ltd-increase-load-and-haul-efficiency-at-sukari/
#1 The article talks about the old practice of manually recording dump & haul data being consistently wrong, thus historical waste moving stats may not be 'as advertised' in previous quarterly updates/years. The addition of semi autonomous record keeping is intended to resolve this. But that raises some important questions;
- Will Centamin need to update the overall progress and waste moving completion date?
- Has Centamin been getting what it's been paying for if the manual data recorded was fraught with errors?
- Has Centamin been awarding Capital bonuses for moving more waste than planned based on erroneous inputs? (the awarding of outperformance bonuses is part of the agreement)
#2 'challenges with importing'
Since the course gold oriented 'gravity circuit' that was being tested on site back in Q3 2022 has apparently not even been approved/ordered as of Q3 2023 (see Q3 release) - is this a result of faulty testing processes or a difficulty in importing various equipment into Egypt to run the tests?
It's been well over 3 years since we first heard of the 'nuggetty gold' bonanza zone and it being 'a very close' source of additional ounces. If the gravity circuit infrastructure is still at least another year away from acquisition - that puts it nearer 5 years from the original statement of 'near term additional ounces close to existing underground infrastructure' to possibly delivering the first ounce.
And still Centamin management awards themselves yearly bonuses for a job well done. Yes, well done for their inner circle of profiteers.
Sep 15, 2023 3:16 PM $1.51 qty 100
Sep 15, 2023 2:58 PM $1.51 qty 100
Sep 15, 2023 11:52 AM $1.51 qty 100
Sep 15, 2023 9:39 AM $1.50 qty 800
4 Trades In Total
Total Volume sold 1,100 shares
Sold Value $ 1,653
Volume Bought 1,100 shares
Bought Value $1,653
https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/CEE/trade-history
Given the limited interest in the company, maybe delisting from the TSX would be wise.
Management could save $$ in unnecessary exchange fees & regulatory requirements would be less onerous for a single LSE listing.
Strange , even tiny juniors have consistently more trading than Centamin in Toronto - let alone Centamin's peers. More than an oddity to say the least.
15 September, 2023
Separate findings this month by both the IMF and Bloomberg economists have identified Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan and Bahrain as critically vulnerable countries that could default on their sovereign debt obligations, with potentially catastrophic implications for their economies and populations.
A Bloomberg update this month on regular rankings of 60 emerging markets by sovereign debt vulnerability placed four Middle Eastern countries in the top quarter: Egypt (2nd), Tunisia (4th), Bahrain (11th) and Jordan (13th). Egyptâs vulnerability assessment was found to be second only to war-torn Ukraine.
https://www.newarab.com/news/debt-storm-mena-are-egypt-and-tunisia-next-lebanon
Further reading :
"Egyptâs vast black hole of a kleptocracy, wherein billions of vital public funds are syphoned off into the pockets of regime supremos, while the military owns and operates vast sections of the economy."
https://www.newarab.com/opinion/save-egypts-economy-kleptocratic-regime-must-end
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What do shareholders think could happen to interrupt Sukari production if a government default occurred? Short term pain? No effect?
Buffett once said, "You can't have a baby in a month by getting nine women pregnant."
TRANSLATION: Most investments take time to pay off. Shortcuts, business savvy or even superhuman effort cannot compensate for the lack of good planning & patience
Lots of talk about the privatization program in #Egypt, meanwhile army-owned National Service Project Organization (NSPO) acquires 24% stakes in (three) private steel companies from Beshay Steel
https://twitter.com/EduardCousin/status/1701834003957928215
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The National Service Projects Organization, which was established in 1979 with the aim of achieving relative self-sufficiency in the needs of the armed forces and supplying the local market, owns 63 companies in 6 basic sectors: âfoodâ, âheavy industriesâ, âcontracting and servicesâ, and âinternal tradeâ. âForeign Affairs,â âMining,â and âOil and Gas.â
The deals took place on the shares of the companies âEgyptian Sponge Iron and Steelâ, âEgyptian American Steel Rolling Millsâ, and âInternational Steel Rolling Millsâ in the over-the-counter market on the Egyptian Stock Exchange.
Egyptian Stock Exchange data showed that the deals were made through EFG Brokerage, which accounted for 80% of trading yesterday, Monday, with more than 20 billion pounds.
Beshai Steel Group, established in 1948, is one of the largest iron and steel producers in Egypt
https://www.asharqbusiness.com/article/54362/%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D8%AF%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%B7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%B0-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-24-%D9%85%D9%86-3-%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%B5%D9%84%D8%A8/
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The Egyptian Army's tentacles just get longer and longer , despite what Sisi tells the international community (of lenders)
According to a recent World Bank report, Egypt's food subsidy program is the largest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The bread subsidy programme serves 72 million citizens, and the food ration cards cover more than 64 million people.
The cost of annual food subsidies in Egypt has reached EGP 127.7 billion ($4.13 billion) for the fiscal year (FY) 2023/2024, said Minister of Supply and Internal Trade Ali Moselhi, according to a statement on Wednesday.
https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/508332/Business/Economy/Egypt%E2%80%99s-food-subsidies-surges-by--in-the-FY-.aspx
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Note: Egypt has 109 million people total - so approx. 3 out of every 4 persons in Egypt needs a handout just to eat , astounding (and frightening if you are a bankrupt dictator like Sisi)
Summary: Some London-listed companies, facing wide valuation gaps, are looking to the US
The boss of a newly listed gold mining company has said that its future lies in Toronto and New York, as more precious metals miners are bypassing the LSE.
Allied Gold, an Africa-focused producer, listed in Canada on Monday in the countryâs largest mining initial public offering since 2010 with a market capitalisation of C$1.3bn on the first day.
Peter Marrone, chair and chief executive of Allied Gold since April, said that the company had been considering listing in London about 18 months ago, but it will most probably opt for a New York via Toronto route.
âNew York is a very interesting place. Thereâs a lot of money that is a multiple of what one finds in the rest of the world,â he said in an interview. âIn the precious metals world, they are becoming more comfortable with the emerging markets.â
The change in listing plans for Toronto-based Allied Gold comes after Johannesburg-based AngloGold Ashanti announced plans in May to switch its primary listing to New York in pursuit of a higher valuation underpinned by the US east coast cityâs large pool of investors.
London has long been home to Russian gold producers but the likes of Polymetal and Polyus have been forced to pursue delisting plans following western sanctions in response to Russiaâs invasion of Ukraine.
The London marketâs waning ability to attract companies is not limited to gold miners, however.
Among companies opting for a US listing include Irish paper maker Smurfit Kappa which is moving its primary listing to the US and UK-based chip designer Arm, which opted for a New York IPO. WeSoda, which produces soda ash in Turkey, pulled out of a $7.5bn London IPO earlier this year.
London has historically been the home for natural resource companies whose production is based in Africa owing to the timezone, but Marrone believes that the UK capitalâs investors have become increasingly skittish about emerging market risk.
âWhereas in the past, Europe and London had a better focus on Africa and emerging markets in Asia and some parts of Europe, I think the American portfolio manager is now catching on to that. I think the landscape is changing,â
Marrone is the former chair of Yamana, which added a secondary London listing in 2020 before being sold last year for $4.2bn
Allied Gold operates three mines in Mali & Ivory Coast that produce 375,000 ounces. Marrone aims to lift output to more than 700,000 ounces.
Marrone said he consider opportunities for mergers and acquisitions to build a portfolio of emerging market gold mines, which could include partnering with competitors to buy bigger rivals and divide up their assets.
âI would like to get to a platform of 1mn to 1.5mn ounces per year that leans towards the emerging markets,â
For what it's worth I've not seen any indication of a 10 day plant shutdown via the Sukari workers on LinkedIn - esp. one that was unplanned (other than standard maintenance)
Therefore I'd be very surprised if it turns out to be true.
Additionally, the gravity circuit must be nearing a state of readiness, so I would expect some high grade bonanza ore to be processed soon - which should give Q4 a boost across the finish line