Member Info for Corriedog

But Barclays recommended overweight . Positive.

And the enterprise value of equity plus debt falls! Hopeless.

In old money, Harbour’s share price is 25p.

In Premier’s last year of 2020 it produced 62k Boepd
at $12 opex. It had net debt of $2.08bn. Generated operating cash flow over $600m on rubbish oil prices.

Where would the share price be today if Harbour hadn’t mugged us? £1.50 in old money or £30 new.

What a classic value destruction and the new Board haven’t demonstrated any better skills than the old one despite having a much better hand to play.

Very unimpressed.

The posts after mine are pretty much a waste of space.

A fund raise at 5p might enable the share to get to 45/50p in time. The alternative is pretty much f… all for the current shareholders..

Sad but true.

They should try and raise £4m gross at 5p. That should be doable. £2/3m placing and £2/1m offered to existing shareholders.
Acceptable dilution and share price should settle about 6/7p before one of the two events ie Italy and Navitas.
Good summary by Rogue Trader.
Failure to raise new money now would be irresponsible. Can’t delay any longer.

Read the 1st March announcement. This is a delay pure and simple.

Pwc took almost 3 months to sign off the half year and which wasn’t a full audit.

The shares are not that liquid and move up a lot or down a lot on smallish trading.

This is a mega buying opportunity.

The biggest danger to the value of the shares is dilution. The company needs to issue shares to avoid running out of money.
The Board can’t rely on getting the Italian claim paid quickly enough or Navitas being ‘kind’.
I would reckon £20m at 5p is the likely requirement. If they can sell it.

The company is valued at the market value of the shares plus debt ie about £5.5bn.
Next year the debt will have been repaid but the equity valued at the same. Three times free cash flow.
I don’t think so!

I have been a shareholder here for at least 10 years. Company is in a real gambling position now as it is running out of cash. As simple as that.

It might get the claim in time but the Italians will continue to string this out for as long as possible to their advantage so can’t bank on that happening soon..

Navotas might sign up to jv but might gain by waiting.

Navotas might buy RKH for licences and tax losses. 12p per share?

RKH might raise some money but who from and at what price? £5m at 4p? Company brokers have done FA for company to date.

Costs are already reduced and too late to change management.

Not looking good at all!

Keep the faith and look at the numbers.
Per disclosed info by the company for 2021, turnover was roughly 3bn dollars and free cash flow of $600m.
Debt was$2.3bn.
Debt today is probably about $2.1bn or £1.6bn in sterling.
Market cap is £3.75bn so enterprise value £5.35bn.
Based on current prices and allowing for hedging and delay on Tolmount that should take 2022 turnover to at least $5bn poor probably more. That goes straight to increase fee cash flow to $2.5bn or £1.9bn.
So enterprise value of £5.3bn and free cash flow of £1.9bn so under three times multiple. Enterprise value decreasing every day with more debt repaid.
Yes lots of uncertainties and assumptions that could change but the above is not far out.
Fundamentals. What would you sell that for? 5 times gives an enterprise value of £8.7bn so equity value about £8 per share on cash basis

Is that 4m dollars of cash per day from Tolmount?

Fundamentals will move the share price eventually. Free cash flow and debt levels. Still no director buying.

I agree EC

Couldn’t agree more with you.

The Board couldn’t do more to hold the share price low if they tried.

Thanks Miles. Fundamentals. Fundamentals. Just need to be patient whilst old PMO creditor shareholders clear. A shame that company’s brokers aren’t more active and visible.

Why are there no director share transactions since November? What do they know?

I think that this is a bit too optimistic currently but it indicates the way of travel. And the fundamentals here. Buy the fundamentals. Not the froth.

Thanks oil-god.
2022 is crystal ball gazing but let’s have a go to see what the directors know. Again in dollars.
Ebitda was 2.3Bn in 2021. 2022 will be higher because of 12 months of PMO, probably higher oil prices and hopefully Tolmount. Overheads are relatively fixed so most of the increased gross profit flows to the bottom line. Ebitda should be between 2.75 and 3.25 as a reasonable guess. Could be more.
Interest should stay roughly the same at 200m.
So operating cash flow of 2.8bn.
Knock off a bit of bookkeeping and get to 2.2bn
Assume dollar doesn’t strengthen so get to pre tax profit in sterling of 1.8bn and get to a p/e of under 2 at current price.
Same capex and with dividend of 200m and debt is down to 1bn dollars.
Enterprise value at today’s price in sterling of about £3.8bn against Ebitda of £2.4bn.
Yes I am long and why not?
It can only be creditor overhang holding this back from realistic pricing. Obviously there could be other things holding this back but not to this extent without unlawful manipulation.
I fully expect the shares to double this year but even that would only be an Ebitda to enterprise multiple of 2.5/3. It could reasonably be 6 - or more.

From the company itself in December. Leverage of one times debt of 2.4bn dollars.
In 2021 with only 9 months of PMO. In dollars. Free cash flow 600m, capex 1.3bn, tax 200m. Ebitda is about 2.3Bn less 200m of interest. Cash profit from operations of 2.1bn. Knock off some bookkeeping for depreciation. Convert to sterling then about 1.25bn.
Tax losses to use of 4bn plus.
That is 2021.
2022 should be much better, even with 30% of production hedged at 60 dollars.
The above isn’t going to be far out. A shame that they don’t have a decent finance director or analysts to show the opportunity.

Pre and post tax profit of £1.25bn