Member Info for Cornishknocker

I had an interview yesterday, that's enough fir me for a minute

Recalculating, it comes out at £195 Million, the AISC should be £7640/Tonne (Sterling not dollars, I used the figures from South crofty), but the spreadsheet formula didn't take the production cost in., so that works out at 2.8p/share by the year end, plus leigh creek and cobre, will work out at about 7p/share by year end. Still, that sounds lioke a party, buty we may need cheaper champagne!

Ignore that for a moment, i've just noticed a massive hole in the spreadsheet!

I've just set up a DCF Model for Redmoor to give an NPV on the project (making a lot of assumptions!) and have come up with an NPV of £525 Million Sterling with a payback period of about 2.75 years.

The assumptions made are: -
Discount Rate 8%
Recovery 75%
Capital Cost £150 Million
Production Rate 600,000 TPA
Smelter Charges 5%
Tin Price £16,000/Tonne (Today approximate price)
All in Sustaining Mining Cost £11,100 Per Tonne

So that values our share at £262 Million
So taking the assumed valuation of 40% at PFS that credits the value of Redmoor at £105 Million or 7.5p/share by year end. On that basis it would be possible top hit 12p/share by the end of the year, if that were to come to fruition, I think a party would be in order!

Strong dividends are 5 years in the future

Absolutely Stockdale, I see a small dividend after 12 months of solid LCCM profits more as a hook to institutional investors than a return.

In the short term this is about market cap, building the share price, from the directors option prices, it is clear where they want it. At present the income from Cobre pays the bills and funds exploration. Within 12 months Leigh Creek will be in full production, some of that money will be used at Redmoor but JP has indicated that he is looking g towards paying a dividend at that point.

So the answer in short is both, short term building the share price, medium term paying a dividend, which should accelerate the share price rise.

I think so....

In my opinion that would just be silly, I think NAE shareholders are at serious risk of losing the lot, no revenue, no near term production - how are they goi g to continue to finance their share of the work at Redmoor, short of a miracle in selling Lochinaevar, they are going to be diluted to hell. Redmoor is the big prize here, LCCM AND Cobre are key to making it ours.

To put some meat on the bones there, the value likely to be attached to a PFS project is around 40% of the NPV. The NPV of this project is likely to be North of £250 million, so 40% is £100 million, and our share would be £50 million.

Totally agree with that Johnsun. With regards to Redmoor people aren't quite seeing how big and how soon an effect it's going to have on the share price. The fundamentals are going to turn it into a seriously valuable asset a lot sooner than people think. Why?

1. The world is desperately short of tin, as of today the LME only have 55 tonnes of tin available for purchase, that amounts to 2 shipping containers, normally it would be in the thousands of tonnes.

2. The exploration programme has turned what most pèople (myself included) thought was going to be a waste of time into one of the world's most significant tin/tungsten projects.

3. Once we have a PFS this year, it will assign a significant project value to Redmoor and companies (both other miners and customers) are going to be looking at it. Seriously.

Leigh Creek and Cobre are vital to the strategic direction here, firstly they are going to provide the cash to get to a bankable feasibility study and secondly they will strengthen our market capitalisation, which will help to defend us from a predatory company effectively pinching this off of us for a song. By Christmas we are going to be looking at a very different company here in my opinion.

3 - 4 years was the timeframe JP gave today, which is realistic.

that should be 0.0175

Surely its 50,500,000 * 0.175 *2 which equals £1.77 million

At risk of over analysing, people are getting too wrapped up analysing the buys and sells (sorry for the irony of thispost). Yesterday it was pretty clear to me that the actual buy/sell prices quoted were seriously incorrect. If you look at it the mid point was actually about 1.72p yesterday morning not 1.8p. I know for a fact that some of the trades listed as sells were buys.

This will all come good in the end, the strategy the board have is spot on and the assets are superb. In a minute a lot of people are going to be wondering how they missed this, our only regret will be not holding more shares.

A mantra I always try to work to is "under promise and over deliver". Promising miracles gets you put on a pedestal, if you fail to deliver you'll soon be shot off of it....

What has me interested is the contact with the Breccia. Is this the source of the mineralisation? The importance of this is major. We don't know if there's anything at depth, but Olympic Dam is a pretty major Breccia hosted deposit.......

The thing to remember is that this is only a resource estimate. This means all it can tell you is the value of the material in the ground. Unfortunately it costs a lot of money to get it out. This is why we need a PFS, which the mining study and mineral testing will feed into. Once you have that information, you can put together a mine plan, a processing plant design and work out your capex and opex to give you an NPV, then you have a real value. One thing I can tell you though, is its not going o cost anything like £3 Billion to build a mine and get this out of the ground.

The biggest problem we now have with Redmoor is our partner, New Age Exploration. Their market cap is now not much more than £2 million. Ideally we need a company with funding to take over their share, or for them to recapitilise.

That is astronomical to be frank. From memory our target was to hit an 8MT resource, we have hit nearly 12! I do not believe this inferred resource will include the Western Extension as picked up, due to the holes remoteness from the rest of the drilling.

The mining study will give us a good idea of a mine plan, but I would anticipate a mining rate of between 500 and 750kT per year, which will effectively set Redmoor up as a major tin/tungsten mine for the foreseeable future. A mining rate of 500kT in a hard rock narrow (Although not that narrow) vein operation is not a small mine by any stretch of the imagination. This will realise an annual revenue in the region of $100 Million over several decades. This is the jackpot as far as I am concerned.