Member Info for ContrarianQuest

Helium One’s share count has increased significantly from about 6 billion shares before August 2025 to around 10 billion shares following recent convertible loan note (CLN) conversions, adding approximately 3-4 billion new shares. This dilution has led to a proportional downward adjustment in price targets (roughly 40%) and increased share overhang pressure, with further tranche conversions expected to continue until late 2025 or early 2026. Investor holdings have been materially diluted, reducing ownership percentages and pressuring the share price until the dilution cycle completes or the company shows operational progress or alternative funding without substantial additional dilution. The market price may test low levels (around 0.20p or below) during this absorption phase with a longer timeline for recovery. Monitoring for further tranche announcements and company updates is critical.

This dilution and timing dynamic forms the key risk and outlook for HE1 shares over the coming months and into 2026.

There’s been some discussion about the effects of Helium One’s share count increase and what it means for investors, so I wanted to clarify based on recent official data and market info.

Shares Outstanding Increase:

Before recent convertible loan note (CLN) conversions, Helium One had about 6 billion shares outstanding. With the August 2025 conversion tranche and expected further conversions, this figure will rise to around 10 billion shares in total. That's roughly 3 billion new shares being added to the market. This information comes from company announcements and investor data.

Impact on Price Targets:

The analyst price target of around 3.6p is based on the previous share count of about 6 billion. With the share count increasing to 10 billion, that price target effectively dilutes by roughly 40% if we consider valuation constant. This means a more realistic adjusted price target might be around 2.1p to 2.3p, assuming the company's total market value doesn’t increase proportionally.

Effect on Investors:

For investors who bought shares at around 1.00p, who saw the price fall to 0.60p or even the recent trading near 0.42p, the increased share count means their holdings have been significantly diluted. This dilution reduces their overall ownership percentage and makes it harder to recover losses because the share price must now contend with a much larger share base.

Future Outlook:

This extra 3 billion share overhang will likely keep pressure on the share price until the company can prove operational success or bring in new capital in ways that do not substantially increase dilution. Therefore, expecting a quick return to previous highs without substantial positive developments and value growth might be unrealistic.

In summary, the rise from 6 billion to an estimated 10 billion shares is a material change that investors must consider seriously, especially when weighing past losses and future price expectations.

I believe on Monday morning at open there is going to be heavy selling as holders have had the weekend to mull over Friday’s closing price of around 0.38p, near the year lows. This will undoubtedly knock investor confidence.

We are indeed hitting 2025 lows; the stock dropped from over 1p in mid-July to these levels.

I can’t see any good RNS releases imminent, as significant updates would likely have been released prior to the August 29 CLN conversion announcement.

The company clearly needs money to continue its operations. The Board of Directors appear to have relatively little personal investment (“skin in the game”), which often indicates limited willingness to risk their own money and can affect the decisions they make for the company. Sadly, this is a common red flag in small-cap stocks.

I see this cycle starting a new trading range at these low prices, which will play into day traders’ skill sets and bring HE1 onto their radar due to increased volatility.

Long term, no one really knows where this will go, but there might be money to be made through trading, though not at this level and certainly not for buy-and-hold investors without high risk tolerance.

Given current market factors, there is a moderate risk that Helium One Global Ltd (HE1) share price could dip into the teens (0.10p–0.19p) within the coming week or short term. This assessment is supported by solid, verifiable information:

Risk Factors:

• Convertible Loan Note (CLN) Dilution: The latest official RNS dated August 29, 2025, confirms issuance of approximately 410.7 million new shares at a conversion price of 0.42p, creating significant dilution putting downward pressure on market price.

• Price History: In 2025, HE1 traded between about 1.02p (July 14) and below 0.40p in early September, with a close on September 5, 2025, at 0.3875p.

• Volume and Volatility: Recent trading volumes have exceeded 150 million shares in a day at times, highlighting liquidity and potential for rapid price swings.

• Support Levels: The stock has seen historic support around 0.30p–0.35p. Persistent dilution and bearish sentiment may test lower support zones in the teens area.

• Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment remains cautious to bearish due to continued dilution, funding uncertainty, and lack of confirmed new commercial production.

• Takeover & Control Risks: A sustained price drop could attract takeover interest, but the Board has limited control over CLN conversions fuelling dilution and price pressure.

Qualitative Probability:

While precise probability percentages cannot be confirmed, based on the above data and recent market behaviour, there is a reasonable 40-60% chance of a short-term price drop into the teens, driven primarily by tranche conversion news and absence of positive catalyst events.

Investor Guidance:

• Exercise caution until the dilution cycle completes, expected by late 2025 or early 2026, when a more sustainable price recovery could emerge.

• Monitor upcoming RNS announcements closely for tranche conversions or operational updates.

• This microcap’s volatility demands prudent position sizing and risk management.

The August 29, 2025, Regulatory News Service confirms the Company received conversion notices totaling £1,725,000 from investors, resulting in the issuance of approximately 410.7 million new shares at a conversion price of 0.42p per share. This price represents a discount of about 10.6% to the closing mid-price on August 28, 2025.

Admission of these shares to AIM trading was expected on September 3, 2025, increasing the total issued share capital to 7,014,526,636 shares.

While specific investors aren’t publicly named, these are institutional or sophisticated noteholders who hold contractual rights to convert under the terms of the Investment Agreement approved in mid-2025. These conversions are a contractual financing obligation, contributing to dilution and share overhang pressure on the market.

Understanding these details helps frame the ongoing dilution dynamics without speculation about unknown buyers or outside parties.

Monitoring upcoming RNS announcements is key to staying informed of further tranche conversions and their impacts on the share price.

The Board cannot unilaterally control the conversion of Convertible Loan Notes (CLNs); conversions follow legally binding agreements with investors.

Ongoing tranche conversions at discounts are continuing despite hopes for a pause, which adds dilution and share overhang pressure.

A takeover at a “cheap as chips” price is possible if the market cap falls low enough, and while the Board can try to influence or resist, they ultimately cannot block a takeover approved by shareholders and regulators.

The share price has seen significant volatility, trading mostly under 1p recently, and the dilution risk will likely keep prices pressured until all tranches are converted—expected by late 2025 or early 2026.

After the last tranche conversion announcement, informed investors may re-enter, potentially starting a price recovery phase.

In summary, this is a complex balancing act between funding dilution, takeover risks, and market sentiment. Patience and close monitoring of RNS updates are key for navigating HE1.

Hi Shobbit,

Just to clarify, my posts are neither intended to ramp nor deramp the stock. I'm simply seeking views and opinions from investors who have been here longer and seen more cycles than myself.

From a quick analysis of the discussions, I find Onbeyondzebra to be spot on with their insights and commentary. They clearly have a strong grasp of how the market works, especially with AIM stocks.

I learned a very harsh lesson with another AIM company some time ago, and that experience led me to conclude that AIM lacks longevity for long-term holding. It’s great for active trading, and yes, once in a while, you might hit the jackpot, but those days are few and far between.

If you’re content making 10-30% returns frequently through trading, you can grow your money far more consistently with relatively less capital. Judging by Onbeyondzebra’s posts, they have clearly done this very successfully.

Thanks for the ongoing discussion, it’s great to learn from experienced investors here.

After reading other posts and observing similar companies with open-ended dilution financing, I’m concerned about HE1’s downside risk.

The historic low for HE1 is 0.19p, but with more shares now in issue and ongoing tranche conversions, could the price fall below this?

Is it realistic to see HE1 drop into the lower teens or even below, given the larger overhang and dilution mechanics?

What’s the community’s view on the timeline for this—could this happen in the next few months, or might it be later?

Would appreciate thoughts on these points from those closely following the stock.

HE1 appears to be in an ongoing absorption phase due to recent tranche conversions flooding the market with shares. The price has struggled near 0.30–0.40p and may test the low 0.20p range before finding a bottom. This is consistent with historical volume and price patterns seen in 2024–2025, where heavy dilution suppressed gains despite positive news and helium fundamentals.

Analysts still project substantial upside with targets around 3.6–3.7p over the next year, but the near-term risk remains that the price will drift lower until the market absorbs the excess supply.

I’m interested in whether others see the 0.20p region as a realistic bottom and, if so, what kind of timeline people expect for this absorption phase to end. Could it happen soon, late 2025, or even extend into 2026?

Despite the risks, this could be an opportunistic entry point if the dilution cycle is indeed close to finishing. Keen to hear if others are watching the same signals or expect further downside.

Issues with posting but you get the idea

both heads of terms were issues on 20/11/2023

• Oriole (ORR) – HoT signed with BCM Int’l on 92.2%-owned Bibemi gold project (Cameroon)

• Earn-in terms: BCM can earn up to 50% stake → US$500k cash signature payment + US$4m exploration spend (mainly drilling)

• Success payments: Extra staged payments up to US$3m: US$1m for each additional 1Moz JORC gold Resource (triggered at 1Moz, 2Moz, and 3Moz defined, ≥50% Indicated/Measured category)

• Advance: Non-refundable US$50k received (offset against signature payment)

• Timetable: Agreement expected before end-2023; drilling resumes Q1 2024; studies ongoing for exploitation licence in 2024

• Operational: Drilling provided by BCM (cost +10%); Oriole manages geology/admin (cost +10%)

• Backstop: If Oriole

• Oriole (ORR) – HoT signed with BCM Int’l on 90% owned Mbe gold licence (Cameroon)

• Earn in terms: BCM up to 50% stake → US$1m cash + US$4m exploration spend

• Success payments: Additional staged payments up to US$20m, based on defined JORC compliant gold resource milestones (starting at 1Moz, in US$1m increments for each additional million ounces up to 5Moz, and increasing for larger totals, up to 10Moz)

• Advance: Non refundable US$50k received (offset against signature fee)

• Timetable: Due diligence by 31 Jan 2024; final Earn In Agreement expected before end 2023

• Operational: Maiden drilling at Mbe planned Q1 2024 (at BCM cost +10%; Oriole manages geology/admin, also cost +10%)

• Backstop: If Oriole

• Oriole (ORR) – HoT signed with BCM Int’l on 90% owned Mbe gold licence (Cameroon)

• Earn in terms: BCM up to 50% stake → US$1m cash + US$4m exploration spend

• Success payments: Additional staged payments up to US$20m, based on defined JORC compliant gold resource milestones (starting at 1Moz, in US$1m increments for each additional million ounces up to 5Moz, and increasing for larger totals, up to 10Moz)

• Advance: Non refundable US$50k received (offset against signature fee)

• Timetable: Due diligence by 31 Jan 2024; final Earn In Agreement expected before end 2023

• Operational: Maiden drilling at Mbe planned Q1 2024 (at BCM cost +10%; Oriole manages geology/admin, also cost +10%)

• Backstop: If Oriole

Gus0 - summary of heads of terms from November 2023. hope it all makes sense

• Oriole (ORR) – HoT signed with BCM Int’l on 90% owned Mbe gold licence (Cameroon)

• Earn in terms: BCM up to 50% stake → US$1m cash + US$4m exploration spend

• Success payments: Additional staged payments up to US$20m, based on defined JORC compliant gold resource milestones (starting at 1Moz, in US$1m increments for each additional million ounces up to 5Moz, and increasing for larger totals, up to 10Moz)

• Advance: Non refundable US$50k received (offset against signature fee)

• Timetable: Due diligence by 31 Jan 2024; final Earn In Agreement expected before end 2023

• Operational: Maiden drilling at Mbe planned Q1 2024 (at BCM cost +10%; Oriole manages geology/admin, also cost +10%)

• Backstop: If Oriole

Must of hit a nerve :-(

When I checked this morning I was being offered 0.44p, it has now changed, I say it as I see it

The market opening for Oriole Resources (ORR) today shows a bid of 0.369p and an offer of 0.45p, reflecting a very wide spread compared to typical sessions.

Key Implications

Wide Spread: This unusually large gap (0.369p bid vs. 0.45p offer) indicates market makers are uncertain about near-term price direction, and there may be lower liquidity or nervousness following recent selling pressure and ongoing warrant exercises.

Pressure from Warrants: With many holders potentially selling after exercising at 0.25p, market makers may be protecting themselves against additional downside by lowering the bid.

Lack of Immediate Catalysts: With MRE news not expected until late Q4, and sentiment driven mainly by technical and trading factors, volatility and uncertainty are likely to persist throughout September.

Trading Strategy: For buyers, there's hesitation to pay mid-0.40s without news. For sellers, urgency to accept a lower bid reflects the ongoing selling from warrant conversions.

Support/Resistance: The 0.36–0.38p area remains key short-term support; a breakdown could see a test toward 0.30p, while any firm buying could pull the price toward the offer.

Summary

Today’s opening signals market caution and probable continued choppy trading as both buyers and sellers wait for clearer signals. The warrant overhang and delayed MRE news are keeping spreads wide and activity tentative.

Watch for narrowing of the spread and higher volumes for indications of increased conviction in either direction.

lets see what the day brings

With the amount of shares traded around that day, the 50M would of been absorbed if sold in tranches.

Continued

Let’s be honest: some of the long-term holders with 100M+ shares at an average of 0.25p could have doubled their money overnight recently. By crystallising half of their holding, they could effectively leave the remaining 50% in the market at zero cost—a free ride. That’s smart trading. It offers flexibility to pursue other opportunities while retaining upside exposure.

Final Thoughts

I hold no ill will toward anyone involved. I’m simply focused now on trading smartly, managing risk, and positioning myself for the upside when it comes. ORR remains a high-potential play, but it must be approached with a clear strategy and open eyes.

Cekim

Reflections on ORR – A Long-Term Holder’s and Trader’s Perspective

I've been involved with Oriole for several years now—both as a long-term holder (LTH) and as a trader. My journey has been a mixture of patience, frustration, and strategic trading. Over time, I've come to some hard-earned realizations, particularly around the dynamics of institutional involvement and its impact on shareholder sentiment.

The Impact of Lanstead

One of the most painful realisations has been the effect of Lanstead’s presence over the past two years. While their funding was crucial for the company’s survival, their continuous offloading of shares severely impacted sentiment and share price performance. Long-term holders, myself included, often felt trapped during this period as the market struggled to absorb the consistent selling pressure.

Although Lanstead’s involvement ensured Oriole stayed afloat—an undeniably critical outcome—it did little to support shareholder value during that time. There was a clear absence of strategy to keep LTHs engaged or to attract new investors. That was a missed opportunity and, in my opinion, a significant misstep.

Management and Leadership

On the positive side, I have strong respect for Eileen and Claire, who are exceptional members of the Board. Their presence and leadership have brought stability, and without them, the company could be in a very different, less favourable position.

Conversely, Bob—in my view—is an overpaid accountant whose performance hasn’t justified his compensation. His continued presence has long been questionable. As for Tim, I suspect he recognized early on that this was going to be a long, difficult road and decided to move on in search of more straightforward opportunities.

Martin has now been in his role for over a year. While I had high hopes, I’m still waiting to see any tangible contributions from him that move the needle.

Trading Strategy and Market Sentiment

There have been key moments over the years where the share price has doubled overnight—August 26th being a recent example. These are the moments where real money can be made. I have capitalised on some of those spikes, and after reassessing my approach, I’ve shifted my strategy to focus more on short-term trading, which has proven effective.

I remain confident that ORR has the potential to deliver significant returns when the right news drops. However, risk still exists, and that’s why I’m focusing on active trading while waiting for those key catalysts.

A New Chapter: Post-Lanstead

With the changes since August 26th and Lanstead now out of the picture, the share is once again ripe for trading. I expect to see many investors actively dipping in and out—both realising profits and adding to their long-term positions in anticipation of future news.