Member Info for ContrarianQuest

FOMO in Play

Thursday’s 4.5M buy at 15:51 flipped the close from bearish to bullish. Today’s trading is driven by FOMO, but with traders looking to maximise returns, a short-term pullback is almost inevitable.

Support: 0.44–0.46 | Resistance: 0.49–0.50

As i said - Current technical data suggest that if the soft floor at 0.44 and deeper support at 0.43 fail to hold, price could test levels below 0.40

bid is now 0.43

Technical snapshot: tape shows strong buys (15.2M) vs 7.1M sells but liquidity is thin above/below. Visible bids: 0.44 (200k), 0.43 (600k); offers: 0.45–0.47 (small then large). No RNS catalyst. Given the level 2 ladder and thin liquidity below 0.42, my objective read is that downside risk is real if 0.44/0.43 fail — watch bids for absorption.

Current technical data suggest that if the soft floor at 0.44 and deeper support at 0.43 fail to hold, price could test levels below 0.40. This is supported by:

Moderate tape volume: buys dominate slightly but overall liquidity is limited.

Lack of fresh RNS/news catalyst to sustain upward momentum.

Offer walls at 0.46–0.47 absorbing minor probes, limiting short-term upside.

Oscillators (STOCHRSI 89, Williams %R -17) indicate overbought conditions, suggesting pullbacks are healthy.

Level 2 shows thin liquidity below 0.42, making a rapid descent toward 0.40 plausible if buyers lose patience.

Bid holding around 0.44p, showing a soft floor.

Offer walls at 0.46–0.47 remain heavy; short-term oscillation 0.43–0.445 likely. Any move toward 0.50 will need fresh buying or news to break through.

“Marex on the Ask caps momentum — a short-term pullback this week looks likely, with 0.42–0.43 as key support.”

HE1: Consolidating 0.43–0.45. Strong support 0.42–0.43, resistance 0.45–0.47. Moves momentum-driven; minor pullbacks healthy. Next leg depends on fresh buying or news.

Morning folks — solid day yesterday, nice to see some green and proper volume again. But just a small dose of reality — there’s been no new RNS yet, so most of this move looks like it’s just trading momentum rather than anything news-driven.

Looks like that 0.43 area was the main pivot where a lot of buying kicked in (my own last top-up was there too). Wouldn’t shock me if we see a bit of a breather or dip back toward 0.41–0.42 before the next leg — would actually be healthy to shake out the short-term chasers.

Still feeling good about the setup overall — just think we don’t need to force it. Let it do its thing, build a proper base, and go again when the next RNS drops.

All IMO, not advice, just how it looks from the tape. GLA as always 👍

TEMPORARY SUSPENSION OF TRADING ON AIM

Anyone else seeing this on TRX today?

Level 2 has gone completely blank on my screen — no market-maker depth showing at all.

On Level 1 I’m seeing bid = 5.00p and offer = 9.00p (around a 45 % spread), but I’ve tried dummy buys for 100, 1,000 and 10,000 shares and nothing will execute.

It still shows Normal – Regular Trading on the LSE site, so it’s not a suspension.

Is anyone else getting the same? Have the MMs pulled their quotes or is this a data-feed issue?

Volume earlier today was around 102 k shares (mostly sells), so maybe the book just dried up?

Any insights appreciated — curious if others’ platforms are showing the same thing.

Fellow shareholders,

I wanted to share a current market analysis for ORR, integrating recent trading activity, historical patterns, and forward-looking expectations following the MRE announcement.

1️⃣ Current Trading Snapshot

Yesterday (21/10):

Volume: 321m buys / 144m sells

Closing SP: 0.34p (opened 0.345p)

High briefly: ~0.43p, mainly traded 0.35–0.36p

Today (22/10, 12:52):

Volume: 62m shares (33.5m buys / 16.5m sells)

Bid: 0.33p (2m shares) | Offer: 0.34p (1m shares)

Additional levels: 0.32p (1m), 0.36p (1m)

Observation: Despite strong buying volume, SP has consolidated around 0.33–0.34p, indicating a balance between accumulation by new buyers and legacy/short-term selling.

2️⃣ Market Mechanics & Context

ORR now trades on SETSqx — auction-based execution smooths volatility vs the old continuous SETS platform.

152m warrants outstanding (expiring Jan 2026) create a known dilution overhang, moderating SP spikes.

Level 2 depth: strong bids, thin offers → market makers actively absorbing sells, building liquidity for the next move.

3️⃣ Technical & Sentiment Indicators

SP is holding above 0.32–0.33p support, with near-term support confirmed at 0.33p.

Bid depth exceeds ask depth → accumulation by larger players.

Chatboard sentiment: cautiously bullish, awaiting licence approvals, JV announcements, and MBE North drill updates.

4️⃣ Forward Outlook (Trading Perspective)

Timeframe Expected Range Notes / Catalysts

Immediate (next hours) 0.33–0.36p Absorbing MRE news, warrant overhang, auction-based SP smoothing

Short-term (1–2 weeks) 0.37–0.42p Legacy shares/warrants cleared, early-stage licence / JV triggers

Mid-term (weeks–months) 0.45–0.50p+ De-risked operations, MBE North drill results, potential JV or production start

Key Point: SP consolidation is healthy and strategic — allowing accumulation before the next leg higher. Historical patterns show the market rewards confirmed district-scale resources.

5️⃣ Key Takeaways for Holders

Consolidation ≠ weakness — it reflects orderly absorption of volume and preparation for a re-rate.

High buying volume + strong bids = foundation for sustainable SP growth.

Watch for catalysts: licence confirmations, JV announcements, and further drilling results.

Patience is required; auction-based trading mechanics can mask immediate reactions but ultimately lead to a more sustained, disciplined rise.

✅ Conclusion

ORR remains fundamentally undervalued with a strong resource base. Current SP action reflects temporary consolidation, not a loss of value. Disciplined accumulation near 0.33–0.34p, combined with attention to catalysts, positions holders to benefit from the next upward phase.

DYOR GLLTH

TRX – Restatement Debate (balanced view)

I’ve seen a few posts from both Pokerchips and Icecool about the recent RNS, so here’s a neutral read based on what the company actually said:

The restatement related to inventory and cost-of-sales allocations — revenue wasn’t affected. That means the adjustment flowed through to gross margin and EBITDA, but it was more of an accounting clean-up, not a sign of collapsing sales.

Management explained the gross margin drop (53% → 42%) as a result of manufacturing yield issues and said new cost controls should improve margins going forward.

So in short — Pokerchips is right that cost-of-sales changes do affect margin numbers, but Icecool’s right that the company framed it as a housekeeping correction plus efficiency work, not a red flag. The truth’s probably in the middle — it’s all about how well they execute from here.

Just to clarify, no drama intended — this isn’t opinion, it’s straight from the LSE’s own rulebook.

ORR trades on SETSqx (quotes & crosses) — that means:

• Four scheduled auctions (8 am, 9 am, 11 am, 3 pm)

• No continuous electronic order book like SETS

• Market makers can quote between auctions, but only if they choose — most AIM micro-caps see little to none.

So yes, you can enter orders anytime via your platform, but they only execute when the auction uncrosses. That’s why you sometimes get “no live quote available.”

Not trying to teach anyone — just keeping the mechanics clear so people don’t get caught by the gap between “can place” and “can actually trade.”

As i said last night and this morning

Reminder: ORR now trades on SETSqx, so even with this RNS liquidity isn’t instant – price moves mainly at the four auctions (8 am, 9 am, 11 am, 3 pm).

Just a heads-up that ORR now trades on SETSqx, not the old continuous SETS platform.

That means four auctions a day (8 am, 9 am, 11 am, 3 pm) — no live quotes between them.

You can still buy/sell, but only via limit orders, not “live quote & deal.”

So even if a big RNS lands and the price spikes, liquidity won’t be instant — trades clear only at the auction uncrosses.

Plan exits accordingly; large blocks will still need staged selling or off-book matches.

Just a friendly reminder before the next flurry of news.

ORR – Maiden MRE (21 Oct): 870 koz @ 1.09 g/t Au, MB01-S Cameroon.

Great result – beats the top of the prior target and confirms a near-1 Moz system, open in all directions. BCM to finalise drilling at MB01-N (+370–600 koz potential).

Reminder: ORR now trades on SETSqx, so even with this RNS liquidity isn’t instant – price moves mainly at the four auctions (8 am, 9 am, 11 am, 3 pm).

BBC Future (April 2025) highlighted Tanzania’s helium discovery as the world’s largest reserve — and confirmed production is set to begin this year (2025).

The article outlined how the U.S. helium reserve has now been sold off, Russian supply is restricted, and new capacity from Qatar won’t arrive until 2027 — meaning a critical global helium shortage remains unresolved.

Against that backdrop, Helium One (HE1) is one of the very few companies positioned to enter production in the near term. The BBC specifically referenced the Tanzanian reserve as a new and deliberate helium discovery — the first of its kind — which directly underpins HE1’s asset base.

The recent fundraise and decision to cut short the CLNs now make strategic sense in this context. It strengthens the balance sheet ahead of a potential production ramp and avoids further dilution risk just as the sector’s fundamentals turn decisively positive.

Notably, the Board of Directors have increased their shareholdings, which many see as a vote of confidence ahead of key operational milestones. Management alignment at this stage suggests they believe the company is entering a value inflection point rather than another funding cycle.

With helium demand doubling by 2035 (BBC data) and supply still fragile, HE1 sits in the right place at the right time — Tanzania’s 2025 launch window could make it a central player in the next global helium supply chain.

(Source: BBC Future – “Why helium shortages are worrying the world”, published April 2025)

Just a heads-up that ORR now trades on SETSqx, not the old continuous SETS platform.

That means four auctions a day (8 am, 9 am, 11 am, 3 pm) — no live quotes between them.

You can still buy/sell, but only via limit orders, not “live quote & deal.”

So even if a big RNS lands and the price spikes, liquidity won’t be instant — trades clear only at the auction uncrosses.

Plan exits accordingly; large blocks will still need staged selling or off-book matches.

Just a friendly reminder before the next flurry of news.

No issue, mate — just posting real-time L2 flow as it shows. Prints, bid shifts, and spread action are all public data.

Nothing deceitful about interpreting the tape — traders either use it or ignore it. I’ll keep sharing the numbers for those who find value in them.

All good, just reading the tape — nothing “ridiculous” about tracking order flow. MREX sitting on the ask confirms distribution, same as noted. It’s part of the data, not a drama.

Everyone trades their own edge — I’m just mapping patterns, not pitching narratives.