Member Info for ContrarianQuest

I am guessing Mcfly is sitting on approx 200% profit banked from the last upside and the other margins on the way, don't worry no rush, patience is needed here, once the sentiment gets really desperate and more shares get dumped, the normal crew will be out pumping again before the next RNS. That sadly is how the AIM cycle works.

Not long now and we will be back to November / December 2025 price levels and then Mcfly will be out waxing lyrical like the last time in the run up to the RNS's on 22/12, and then into January, talking about Whales :-), then you know it is time to load up again :-) Looks like we have a little bounce off of 0.51

Initial thoughts

“2026 will be tough. 2027 maybe better. 2028 good.”

Market trades the next 6–12 months, not 2028.

Bottom Line on WPP

Short-term: Weak

Medium-term: Turnaround potential

Today: Likely red open

I agree Godo you have been doing an excellent job.

Just for context I am showing below my posts from October / November 2025. It would be very interesting to see what response other shareholders get when they email Martin and ask him to confirm what IFC advisory have been doing over the last 9 months, to justify their fees.

1 Nov 2025 12:25

Following on from recent discussion, one practical area deserves clear accountability:

IFC Advisory (Investor Focus) were engaged around May/June 2025 as the Company’s PR/IR advisors and have been listed on every RNS since.

Given the importance of communication at this stage and the fact that retail investors currently make up the bulk of the register it’s fair to ask:

Since IFC’s appointment, what investor-relations activity has been delivered, and what is planned going forward?

Specifically, clarity on:

Investor-facing content produced since May (interviews, CEO updates, briefings, articles, etc.)

The comms schedule for the next 3–6 months

How retail engagement is balanced with institutional outreach

KPIs and success metrics IFC are working to

This is not criticism or hype it’s professional governance. Consistent, visible communication is standard practice for AIM companies, especially ahead of funding steps and project milestones.

The technical work has been strong, and the combined resource base puts ORR ahead of many early-stage peers. Now the market needs the same clarity, confidence, and visibility to match the geology.

We all want the same outcome: a well-funded, well-valued company that executes its plan. Holding advisors to their brief constructively and transparently is part of achieving that.

27 Oct 2025 10:47

The problem as I see it is the PR and marketing, as many have said no momentum, no story, no excitement and the new PR is doing absolutely nothing, its as if they have given up on the retail market altogether. You need a mix of both and they don't seem to get it. Switching to the new trading platform cuts down their costs as well. I also think it was interesting when all other BOD bought in the last time around, Martin did not, you have to ask yourself why? Other CEO's like to get the market excited it is was is needed in AIM, not deadly silence.

Not long now now looking at level 2, if we break 0.55, support is very thin at the moment.

I think it is fair to say the market is doing what it always does, anyone who bought in 0.35 and sold at the peak, well done, nearly 200% in 6-8 weeks is a tremendous return, others who recently bought in sit tight, you might have to wait a while. If they do eventually do a placing as third party funding does not work out, it will be a possible revisit to last August's CLN's only time will tell.

The reality is that this is AIM. If you want to see a Whale, go to SeaWorld :-)

Looks like all of the excitement is now over as the reality now sets in and looking at level 2.

Anyone buying UFO during the January spike should be prepared to hold for a long time. The move appeared largely FOMO-driven, amplified by extreme silver sentiment, with early buyers likely taking profits.

Since then, silver has already pulled back materially, underlining how quickly commodity-led sentiment can reverse.

The Munni Munni JV is a sensible structure, reducing funding and execution risk at the project level, but it was largely known following the December announcement and does not justify the January price spike.

Today’s warrant exercise highlights ongoing equity issuance, even for small sums. UFO remains pre-production, and future funding is still likely to involve dilution.

Investors may wish to focus on companies where Directors demonstrate meaningful and regular share purchases, ensuring stronger alignment with long-term shareholders.

DYOR

Shotgun Mike - spot on, that is exactly how AIM works, you have proved the point, its not luck, that's the mechanics of the market. Once you accept this, you can make good money, you have just successfully proved this, twice, well done. I know a lot of other posters will not accept this, but we have only just started 2026, there will be a lot more lows and some highs. I will see you back in the lows I am sure.

GLA DYOR.

This is a slow grind down, eventually it will find a new bottom, plenty of new buyers will be holding at higher prices.

DYOR

ECR Minerals – Today’s RNS in Context (26 Jan 2026)

Morning all,

Today’s RNS confirms that ECR has now started implementing its production plan at Raglan, with trenching and optimisation work beginning this week. That is a genuine operational step forward and shows progress from planning into execution.

However, it’s important to be clear about what this update is – and what it isn’t.

What today’s RNS does confirm:

Raglan is fully permitted, staffed, and operationally ready

Initial trenching and optimisation work is underway

Focus is on identifying the best grades and optimising the wash plant

Board oversight on site and early off-taker discussions are ongoing

What it does not yet confirm:

Gold grades (g/t)

Ounces produced

Operating costs or margins

Sustainable cashflow

Until those figures are released, this remains a process and execution update, not a production performance update.

References to Blue Mountain recovery rates and strong gold/silver prices are encouraging background factors, but they are not a substitute for Raglan-specific production data, which will ultimately determine value.

In short, this RNS:

✔️ Reduces execution risk

❌ Does not yet de-risk the economics

A meaningful re-rating will come from verified production results, not from the start of works alone. Until then, expectations should remain realistic and medium-term focused, particularly given the enlarged share base following the recent placing.

Progress is being made — now the market will wait for numbers rather than narrative.

GLA to all.

This is more than a tree shake, this is reality settling in and the market winding down from the spike. Share price often consolidates lower once the initial excitement fades. Slowly slowly this will grind lower.

KOD: Classic January AIM FOMO Spike, Buyers Likely to Consolidate Below Peak

As I said yesterday, this is playing out as I would of expected.

This price action in KOD is a classic example of an AIM ‘January FOMO spike’. While the company has legitimately moved from explorer to producing lithium concentrate with first revenues received and export operations underway, there hasn’t been a fresh major RNS catalyst immediately before this sharp spike. That suggests much of the move was driven by technical momentum and investor behaviour. Those who bought late in the rally may now find themselves waiting for support, and the share price often consolidates lower once the initial excitement fades.

DYOR

KOD: Classic January AIM FOMO Spike, Buyers Likely to Consolidate Below Peak

This price action in KOD is a classic example of an AIM ‘January FOMO spike’. While the company has legitimately moved from explorer to producing lithium concentrate with first revenues received and export operations underway, there hasn’t been a fresh major RNS catalyst immediately before this sharp spike. That suggests much of the move was driven by technical momentum and investor behaviour. Those who bought late in the rally may now find themselves waiting for support, and the share price often consolidates lower once the initial excitement fades.

DYOR

Market Structure Insights: Observing Current Moves

This week’s price action illustrates classic market maker behaviour. Level 2 shows clear absorption and recycling across the 0.40–0.48 range, with stacked bids supporting the lower end and offers capping the upside.

Movements within this range are structural, not purely fundamental. Traders who captured the swings would have realised significant gains without needing to “guess” the top.

Next week, the low 0.40s may be revisited, and the same dynamics are likely to continue. Understanding these patterns — support, resistance, absorption, and inventory management remains critical for navigating short-term volatility.

DYOR

Remember that market makers absorb, recycle, and cap stock to manage volatility. Levels we see now could reflect that activity rather than a true floor. Equally, this might be the top end of this cycle or not. The key is that price swings here are often structural, not purely fundamental.

DYOR

Hi Bottmzup,

Thank you for your comment. I completely agree that ECR is now in its first phase of production, and that’s an important milestone. My reference to other AIM junior gold explorers was not intended to downplay this achievement, but simply to provide context around how timelines, cashflow, and investor expectations can play out in these types of companies.

The key point I was highlighting is that while production has started at Raglan, the path to sustained results, market confidence, and share price recovery will still require time and positive operational outcomes. For any new investors, understanding the current dilution, funding strategy, and timeline is critical, even for a company that has moved from exploration into production.

It’s a matter of separating production milestone achievement from near-term market expectations, ensuring that all investors have a realistic view of the risks and potential waiting period involved.

Hello all,

I wanted to share a measured view on ECR Minerals following the recent £1.5m placing and the start of Raglan production. It’s important to separate sentiment from the facts, especially for those familiar with other AIM junior gold explorers, where gains can take time to materialise.

1️⃣ Recent share dilution

Pre-placing shares in issue: 2,670,000,000.

Placing introduced 576,923,068 new shares at 0.26 p, which is ~17.8% additional shares.

Total shares post-placing: ~3,246,923,068.

Implication: The market cap required to reach previous highs (e.g., ~30–36p seen in Nov/Dec 2025) is now significantly higher, making a rapid return to those levels more challenging.

2️⃣ Production and catalysts

Raglan alluvial gold production is just beginning, providing early cashflow but on a relatively small scale.

Blue Mountain and Lolworth projects remain in exploration/development; meaningful results or cashflow from these are months away, potentially up to a year.

Until verified results are delivered, any re-rating is likely to be gradual, not immediate.

3️⃣ Trust and market psychology

Management had previously suggested that no further placings were required. This £1.5m raise understandably erodes confidence for some investors.

Investor patience may be tested — holders could become frustrated if updates or tangible results are slow, potentially putting short-term pressure on the share price.

4️⃣ Implications for new buyers

Buying now is not the same as buying in Nov/Dec at 20–22p; the upside is constrained by dilution and the higher share count.

Realistic expectations should be medium to long-term, based on verified production, exploration success, and cashflow.

Short-term volatility is likely, and the stock may drift lower or consolidate as the market digests the placing and initial production.

5️⃣ Lessons from other AIM junior gold explorers

Gains are possible, but often over a longer timeline, requiring patience through periods of consolidation.

Aligning expectations with reality is crucial rather than expecting rapid returns based on past highs.

Summary:

ECR has potential, but today’s reality is a larger share base, early-stage production, and some investor scepticism. New or existing investors should prepare for a longer-term horizon rather than expecting a quick return to prior highs.

Stay informed, follow production updates, and weigh the trust and dilution factors carefully.

FY25 Q4 update shows resilient food-to-go growth and market share gains, with FY sales +6.8% and Q4 +7.4%. Net cash at £47m reflects capex in the Derby facility, which should reduce from mid-2026. Input costs easing into 2026 supports stable underlying demand for ingredients. Shorts may stay high, but underlying fundamentals look solid.