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I just dont get it, they have both recovered as a business, but IAGs share price recovery is a country mile behind RRS and the both make the vast majority of their profits on long haul wide bodied planes actually flying.
RR // IAG were at the same level around £1.60 just a 6 months ago.
RR is over £3 and IAG is £1.5 makes not logical sense at all!
In 21 i got out in the mid 40s and tbh though I was safe ground getting back in at 17, but this has just dragged and dragged and the only people making money are the funders with their discounted shares and free warrants all at the other share holders expense.
As for Cambay valuation, it is really simple, they are being paid X in cash and X in work for 50% of Cambay so double it as they have that payment and the value of the work, plus still have the other 50% of Cambay. Then add something for goodwill/expertise, future profits, and carbon capture if your so inclined and divide the total by the number of shares.
It s big big range if you do it all, but you would expect the double what the new JV offers to pay for to be at the net asset floor.
I have zero idea were to pitch my sell orders anymore, I would in fact I did bet that this RNS would given a significant multiple share price boost, and am honestly shocked it has not....
I think they have lost the audience, with the excessive delays and dilutions and need to work really hard to get new interest in this share.
This is going to be a hard slog upwards for the share price, it should of rocketed, but it looks like the main stream have lost faith, is the only explanation I can think of.
It is massive news really and should have at least drastically reduced the risk in people eyes, but no price, no work over value, how do you value it?
Indian main operator, may be a game changer on getting things done. Fingers crossed.
I also note a word or two missing about the lump sum payment, like starting the sentence with In addition, it is really not clear the lumpsum is on top of the carry value and certainly the bigger the lump sum the less carry value there will be would be my take on it.
If we assume it is. That entails 40 million usd Capex in the first year. Syn's share of that Capex would be 20 million usd, so the jv would be paying that for 50 %. So does that mean Syn is worth 20 million ?
No it means 50% of the JV is worth $20m, meaning Cambay is worth $40m, that includes a big discount for the risk.
After the deal, SYN is at least worth $20m for its remaining 50% of Cambay plus £20m which is the amount X is effectively paying Cambay for the other half.
If they carry $20m of costs for 50% that makes Cambay worth $40m or £32m UKP... or a bit over 4 times the current capex of @ £7.5m
I had Cambay at $60m - $80m USD from a conversation with Joe 5 years or so ago when he affirmed my estimation of a share valuation as reasonable at the time.
I would happy with $40m with the risk they are taking on at this stage.
Fingers crossed for everyone.
I have to the end of 2024 before it starts to become a more pressing issue, like you I am looking for recovery by end of next year so there is time.
I think IAG will get to 2.60 once recovered, which with share dilution is the precovid level.
IAG is smashing the numbers even more so than RR, yet RR is steaming ahead like a tank.
I just dont get it. They are chunking off debt, passenger numbers are right back and margins are growing.
It is the geo politics that is killing IAG at the moment, with wars in Ukraine and Gazza, and high fuel costs.
I made very good money at £1.80 to be fair about a 100% gain, and as they say it is never wrong to sell for a profit, but it is beginning to smart a bit as my original plan A was to ride RR for another 2.5 years aiming for a £2.5+ exit.
Should of stuck with plan A ...
The 9th or soon or imminent is a pure speculation.....
The reason why could also be anything...
So to clarify we dont when and we dont know why....
To put this is perspective, I also am going to go to India, you don't know when or why I am going either.