Member Info for condor_forever

@olderandwiser - I don't really care what you think to be honest about my 'credence'. Where did I say anything about my 'feel'. I mentioned about a strong source, that is all. That strong source knows a lot more about avacta than myles mcnulty. I am not getting into a 'tit for tat' on here. It isn't worth my time. Let's leave it there and get back to talking gold.

What were your thoughts awax on pur?

@seingred, I'm happy with over a 400% profit in avct. I've no idea where the share price will go there, has it been hyped up too much? Maybe, I don't know. All I have found out recently from a strong source is that avacta have been known not to do 'enough' diligence before coming to market. That doesn't mean that their antigen test won't work, it's hard to know how sensitive/specific it'll be. Right, that's enough of avct from me on this thread.

I think condor will be a £200m+ company. How many shares we'll have in issue by then is another matter.

Mako were valued at roughly £33m prior to getting the finance in place. Once the rights issue was completed and construction started, their share price steadily rallied. In just under a year, their share price has gone nearly 5 x to where it is now and they are not even producing yet.

I am hopeful for a valuation somewhere between mako and calibre as they are the closest comparisons, mainly due to them both being in Nicaragua.

@connect1 - email sent.

I know pure gold are in a much safer jurisdiction and fully funded and aiming 1st gold pour later this year. They are similar to Mako, high grade 9gt material open pit. In their phase 1,they are only targeting 800tpd. Their Aisc is mid to late USD 700's and they have 1m oz gold reserve but about 2m in total. They are trading above their 5% NPV at present as well as mako.

Let's hope sentiment returns to Aim goldies. I know pure gold trade in aim but the mainly trade in Canada. They think they are undervalued due to their potential.

What about condor! I hope we'll start to see a better re-rate once our construction decision and financing is finalised.

@olderandwiser - sorry.

Can I just check, can others see my post about mako mining around 20:15 this evening? For some reason it comes up on my mobile version, but isn't there on my computer version of lse?

Unfortunately not.

are you willing to put your email address on this forum?

For those who don't know, Mako Mining are Canadian listed and their open pit mine is the next to come to production hopefully in Q4 this year. They are only in Nicaragua after closing down their exploration concession in Mexico due to issues regarding safety and had to pay $4m to close that down and get done with it. Here is the link, you just have to fill in some details to get access to the webinar which is just over an hour long:

https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7922854697197550347?source=TW

Notes taken from it:

The mine is 65% complete. Even at this level, they have started mining and are stockpiling ore until the plant is fully up and running which they hope is Q4 2020 (slightly delayed due to COVID).

They are starting with a 500tpd plant for the very high grade open pit (9g/t head grade) with ~ 90% recovery. Nicaragua is much safer than Mexico. The pit only goes to a depth of 150m and has roughly a 5-6 year mine life at present. Then they are planning on increasing production in 2.5 years to 1000tpd and truck some ore from another concession, Las Conchitas which also has some very excellent grades, some 84g/t 1.6m from surface! They think it'll only cost single digit USD millions to expand the mine from 500tpd to 1000tpd.

Their initial capex for their mine is $25.5m for 500tpd. They performed a rights issue July 2019 and increased their shares in issue by 80%!!!!!! Apparently they offered this rights issue to all shareholders. Wexford capital, a fund, already owned a large % in mako and subscribed/took 72% of this rights issue. They have since put down a loan of $15m USD which Mako and drawn down i think $10m of it. Some of this was for the capex to improve their tail storing, for further infill drilling and for further exploration which they need to do as their total reserve is small compared to condor.

It sounds like they have focused directly on the open pit and haven't proven any economics on underground mining yet which we already have done. With the drilling, they hope to have an updated mineral estimate by late August 2020.

They have a very low AISC of $395 but did say this would average up to around $600 with maybe the inclusion of the other concession (but don't quote me on that). I think he said that would include G&A (general and administrative costs), the cost of building a road from the other concession to the mine etc.

Their NPV taken from a 2015 PEA is $173m USD 5% discount. They are currently valued at $197m USD, so over their 5% discount NPV.

Ryan Long's research note on the proactive research website has different NPV values based on the multiple options. Personally, I would go with the 2016 Optimisation Study of the open pits (already permitted) and underground (not yet permitted, however Mark said this won't be an issue as the underground is directly under the La India open pit). This scenario gives a 5% discount NPV of US$267m which equals £219m. Don't forget, this is at $1,250/o

@shaheen - email sent.

Right, back to Condor! I listened to an hours webcast with Mako Mining. I'll post some notes and a link to their webinar. It's a good listen.

@shaheen - yes, it looks like you do to send private messages. I don't have a premium account and don't plan on paying for one.

Hi Shaheen. I would need your email address. Assume the only way of getting it is to put it in here. It's up to you if you want to put it on an open forum.

@seingred - I got in at avct in the mid 40's. I was invested in them 10 years ago but sold out due to the length of time with R&D. I took out my initial investment out yesterday at £1.92.

I'm probably going to take the rest of it out next week and then put it into here.

What's your email seingred? I got some info for you about avct which should interest you. Not going to post it on here.

@EL I'm pretty sure their mine life's are coming to an end as well. I think HUM have a 2nd project up it's sleeve.

@pdp1000 mako only have circa 950,000 reserves with only 350,000 in pit and 600,000 'potential' underground which I assume isn't permitted yet.

Goes to show what we could be valued at once finance is in place and construction begins. They are listed in Canada.

Interesting to see mako mining's market cap is now £162m!

They are only targeting 41,000oz per annum.

No worries guys. Onwards and upwards. All the best long term holders.

Just some notes:
Mark mentioned about spectacular grades. The La India vein set has wide fat veins open at depth. They like the look of cacao. We are sat on 2 basement feeder zones and linking structures. Great number of drill ready targets.
They have quotes on 3 different sized mills, still not decided on a small or big mine straight from the outset. They have a 2nd mill quote and hope to put a deposit down by the end of the year.

A BFS is not necessary for us, wasted shareholders money. We have employees from B2 gold who know what we've got mine wise. Mark attended El Limon mine earlier this year to look at the mine, assume that was during the checking of our head grade through their mine. BFS involves having to infill drill which is expensive and not worthwhile knowing what we've already got.

For those who don't know, Mark and Jim Mellon are very good friends and go back a long way in previous jobs. Jim came to site at the early stage before deciding to invest with his team who are "very capable". They are good friends.

Mark mentioned we had £1.4m cash, now sure whether that is bang up to date. Some of the studies they are already doing, like the tailings is already above BFS standards.

Confidence in financing, likely through gold loans. I'm pretty sure he said "we have identified a mill to buy" and hopes to have a mill in the country early next year.

Land purchase wise, they just bought 4 hectares (which is 40,000 square metres) in the last 48 hours. A lot of work is going into the land purchasers. This land is the landowner's livelihood, they have houses in the local village, artisanal miners that find gold on their land have to give 20% of their ore to the landowner. We can clean up the environment with a proper mill.

When asked about an offer, obviously he said no offers have been made yet and would obviously have to come to the market. He did laugh though when the question was asked. Take from that as you will.

When it came to NPV, he obviously mentioned about the recent research note and mentioned about the 40% discount to NPV. He did say that some bigger mining companies (don't ask me how big) were trading at 1.5-2 x NPV. Imagine that!

He concluded that a lot is going on at the moment, they need to bring in a Chief Operating Officer (COO) on board.

James

Another positive talk. I'll write up some notes later this evening.