Member Info for condor_forever

Nevada is the safest jurisdiction out there and a good addition to calibre. Not sure whether this will benefit us at all. They have combined cash of $98m now. Fiore have a few other projects in the pipeline, one has an initial capex of $60 odd million. Maybe a toll might give them more cash that they might benefit from. Calibre will be looking at producing 245,000 oz per annum. Imagine adding our 100,000 oz to that. Now they are multi-jurisdiction, will that ease the way to putting an offer in for us so they are not seen to be investing/putting all their eggs in one basket (Nicaragua).

https://www.calibremining.com/news/calibre-announces-acquisition-of-fiore-in-nevada-c-3643/

Seingred, agree mako looks overvalued. They would definitely benefit from a toll with us. They have 2 x 500tpd ball Mills but only using one at present, averaging something like 476tpd. Now, if we used the other 500tpd ball mill and sent the ore from mestiza at around 5.36g/t, we could process something like 15,000 oz in 6 months. With grade being higher, think I've worked out the aisc would be somewhere in the region of $640.

The re-mention of a possible toll milling agreement with either Calibre or Mako has sparked my interest again in looking at the numbers. This is very basic and I am comparing us to Calibre's current market cap. I am using post tax FCF for one years production.

Calibre post tax FCF $89m.
Condors potential post tax FCF at gold price $1800 for 100,000 oz would give $68m.

The difference between those 2 numbers would be roughly 0.75. 0.75 x Calibres current market cap works out at £255m. Take off Calibre's cash would give £200m. Yes, we would have some debt of £43m if we have a debt of 60% of the $100m upfront capex. Mako are valued at £150m with only roughly 50,000oz and I think $80m debt (don't quote me on this debt, it's a bit unclear looking at their financials). Mako only had $1.7m in cash end of June and have had to agree a $8m gold link loan in August to cover the interest that it couldn't pay.

I'm going to roughly say I think Condor could be valued at £200m once in production based on Calibre and Mako's current market caps.

Now, we have 135m shares at present. Lets say we raise £5m to get us through to Q1 2022 at 40p per share, that would add around 12m shares, so lets say we have 150m shares issued.

If we raise £30m for the equity at 40p, that would add 80m shares which would give us 230m shares in issue. That would equate to 87p per share.

If Mark pulled off the deal of the century and agreed a toll, we could toll the ore from mestiza to Calibre which could cover the majority (possibly all depending upon how much can be trucked to La Libertad) of the equity we need to raise. With 150m shares in issue, that would give us £1.30 a share with the same market cap at £200m.

John, our new CFO joined from Calibre. His knowledge of Calibre is second to none. He has 750,000 options at around 46p. If John takes up them all, they would be worth £645k at 86p or £975k at £1.30.

I would be happy with a share price around £1.30. Is the above possible? Maybe more shares will be issued than 150m even with a toll (the above is a "best ever case scenario" which may be a dream). Now that is something to ponder.

Interesting there was a re-mention of toll milling the ore from mestiza and that they are looking at all possibilities. Wonder whether with John coming on board whether his influence will be positive for the toll milling.

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1040-tsx-venture/not/108761-bhp-increases-all-cash-offer-for-noront-to-c-0-75-per-share.html

Nice to see. This offer was 213% higher than their shareprice prior to a bidding war between 2 companies. Not saying that we will be bought out, but somewhat reassuring that their board were willing to pay over the odds of their current market cap to buy them out.

Simms, have a look at their recent presentation. They have spokes and more in the pipeline.

I can't see them buying us. Is a toll dead in the water now? I don't know. Is there still time? Maybe. That's the only thing that could see a decent sustained rise but I feel its too late now.

48p

Seingred, yes. I keep a close eye in them. They look very cheap. 16 drill rigs, bought loads more concessions. Should be close to 180,000 oz this year with aisc circa $1,100. We are now somewhere between $813-900 now. Hard to know initial 1st year aisc, hopefully the lower end.

I agree with what you are saying ccc. My concern is the $40m or so equity raise and where our shareprice will be come that raise and obviously what price the new share units will be placed at.

I hope the following factors will improve the sp but considering how far we've come, our shareprice hasn't responded as expected: post election, infill on mestiza, 100% land purchased, initial resource on cacao, gold price/market sentiment.

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/523-tsx/cxb/107891-calibre-reports-strong-third-quarter-gold-production-and-cash-generation-on-track-to-deliver-at-the-high-end-of-2021-production-guidance.html

They are looking strong. $77m cash, debt free. Lots of exploration targets, their hub and spoke model is going well. Working to make the Eastern borosi project their next spoke.

I can't see them buying us. We are constructing a processing plant, have a sag mill in country. Calibre have spare capacity still at libertad, I can't see them buying us to fund a circa $100m processing plant when they have spare capacity. They are searching for the next 5m oz which they state on their presentation.

Slippery, agree it's not done much to the shareprice. What I would say is this drilling has been planned for a while and considering we've done a % of the drilling already (over 50%), then finish it off. I agree once the 5000m on cacao is done and infill drilling on mestiza, then yes, preserve cash until production. I guess Mark wants some form of catalyst to try and spark some interest in this share. I would hope being 100% derisked would do something to the shareprice but now I'm not sure.

Agree. Will be good to see the drill rig go back to cacao once drilling done on mestiza to prove up 500,000-1m oz.

I am a little concerned about what the share price is once funding is announced as that will affect the amount of dilution. I remember Mark mentioning prior to the purchase of the sag mill that he would expect a rise in the share price once this has been confirmed, and look, nothing happened.

As pointed out on here, a small raise for let's say £5m at 40p would equate to 12.5m shares. That should cover the remaining studies and land and by then we would be fully derisked. Condor twitter suggests the company wants to be fully derisked by year end, so I would say 100% land bought by then.

Hopefully post election and all land bought, that might see a rise prior to the final fundraise, but I'm not sure how much that will impact on the sp given the amount of progress we've made over the last year with little to show.

Great results, very strong grades there with decent width. I remember book over on adfvn mentioning about a land swap, I'm sorry, but no chance of giving away any of mestiza.

The market appears a bit bored with condor of late which is a concern regarding what price the next equity raise will be. We know we need at least $5m for the remaining studies and land purchases plus money needed for G&A prior to the big fundraising after Q1 once the bfs is done.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JJmfu2d7KdI&feature=youtu.be

Right at the end mark mentioned he wants to keep the capex under $100m.

I could be completely wrong here. I thought we were going to do a 5000m drill program on cacao. Mark kept saying they were pausing drilling to wait for the drill results before deciding on the next drill location and depth. Did they stop because the intercepts are much deeper than expected and they'll need to do a lot more drilling, or have they stopped drilling to preserve cash/considering an offer and feel they don't need to spend more money on drilling? Interesting times.

http://www.condorgold.com/vef/load/e8b13151ca8ee042a5cdb3a395e1c498?width=640&height=365

I've watched both the Friday and Monday presentations thinking they'll be much the same. The Monday presentation was much better. Definitely worth 20 mins of your time. Mark talked about a conversation with his chief geologist who said we could be looking at between 5-10m oz on the district and could be looking at the higher end of this estimation.

Simms, I think Mark said the good drill results were on mestiza, not cacao.