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https://twitter.com/AsianMetal/status/1078205258352885760
Not sure if this has already been posted as it is a few days old
I note from the graph that Sichuan region has seen a dramatic fall in stocks held. If these stocks were being fed into the market over the period described they would presumably have acted to supress the rise in the vanadium price over the period, however in the same period the vanadium price still in fact rose at a very healthy rate. China already released their secret store of Vanadium into the market a couple of years ago so now with stocks at a very very low point in China at least will the next rise (from what I have read expected in Feb after the new year) be even stronger?
It is perhaps interesting to note that within the Sichuan region is a city called Panzhihua. I have read that Panzhihua is considered China’s centre for vanadium. According to wiki Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group is the largest vanadium product manufacturer in China, and the second largest in the world. So I wonder, how big is the second largest vanadium producer in the world? Some googling of this lead me to BMN’s Vanadium 101 presentation and page 39 (www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/.../Bushveld-Minerals-Vanadium-101_Final.pdf) which advises Panzhihua group output is/was circa 22,000 mtv. More importantly however what the slide focuses on is the fact that the producers listed are co-roducers who are reliant on steel production and steel pricing so they cannot just increase their output of vanadium if they wished to.
Interestingly the start of the decline of the stocks of vanadium in Sichuan also coincides very roughly with the rise in V prices (so perhaps selling into the rising market) and also very roughly with the period of environmental inspections that took place in the region beginning August 2017, (so perhaps some production was never restarted.
Some conjecture, but what is not conjecture is that Chinese V stocks are down over 88%. If anyone has any other info or thoughts on Panzhihua region I at least would be most interested.
Happy New Year All!
Ophidian has been here for a very long time and only relatively recently begun to post concerning EW. With news due it would seem risky for any LTH to trade more than a small percentage of their holding for any reason. On the whole I suspect this would be done to accumilate more stock into stronger hands than to cream profit. People will be trading based on EW and other criteria regardless of such posts and anybody trying to trade on such things with no understanding is likely to loose out. Ophidian has explained himself in the past and for me at least (with due caution) that explanation sits happily. You too Cinder, when accused of excess negativity in the past have explained your approach and posting. Just curious though if there are any other members or price predictions that have riled you and you would like censored?
Ophidian, I like your dreams. I am soon to encounter some CGTable transactions... I wish you frequent and happy dreams in the future. .I shall however investigate an think further in daylight waking hours. Atb Concious
@ Tyfoon. I note you often post articles from local (SA) press, which are appreciated as otherwise I suspect we may not come across them. I agree positive moves are being made but am fearful due to the social, political, and financial clout of those (and their associates) that we know/suspect to be involved. Can I ask whether you are on the ground in SA? I spent some time there a few years ago traveling north to south and it was interesting to get a passive feel of opinion there at that time. I certainly hope for all that Cyrils approach continues to bear fruit in progressing SA away from the Zuma years.. ATB, concious.
A bit late to this thread but it does seem a reasonable concern and I am surprised it didn't recieve further replies. Cyril has certainly been positive for SA and for our investment in BMN but he is one man and must be walking a tightrope, one I suspect he will continue to need to walk for the foreseeable future. As I see it Zuma will still have influence in some areas of the ANC and the more Cyril tries to clean up, the more people he will upset. I have to accept that some may go to extreme lengths to save their bacon. If this time next year Cyril was not President of SA I think we would all see much greater risk to our investment here. Nationalisation under Cyril I don't see, but Cyril must be at reasonably great risk both personally and politically on a day to day basis. I certainly hope for SA that he can continue to carefully walk his tightrope and lead SA to prosperity.
15:44 on 24th October was in fact a buy at 1.07 (my buy). A Minute later the cost for £500 or more worth of shares was 1.075. Interestingly a few minutes after my buy at 15:44 the offer to sell circa £1000 of shares was 1.071.
Strange. Big spread and a short while ago all 5 mms were on a bid of 28 and an ask of 29.5. Feels more like how ive seen things late on fridays when i suspect some of tbeir number have gone down the pub and they don't wish to create an active or competetive market.
Halifax trading account has no monthly or annual charge but a £12.50 per transaction fee (online) Hfax's shares ISA does allow aim or at least BMN and has the same charge per transaction and (currently) a £12.50 annual fee. Don't know what charges there would be to transfer in though and if the transfer would crystalize any gain and thus potential CGT. Sale and repurchase 30 day rule thingy I think has to be within the same account which what your talking about would not be.
Somthing I've been mulling over following first hearing of the intended and seemingly long promised employee share scheme is delays we may feel have been encountered and order of events.
I suspect I am not alone in having expected to hear further news soon after the funds raised for "simplification of structure enabling greater access to cash flows" RNS. Although in that instance the company did not use the word, due to the specific amounts raised I felt the matter would be concluded imminently from that point (to me in these terms imminently being within 6 weeks or so). If the cash settlement to the industrial action earlier in the year was made hand in hand with a promise to finally get the share scheme up and running would a suggested time frame also have been offered?
Throughout my investment in BMN Fortune and the team seem to be working to a plan which is laid out at least 3 years into the future at any point. For me at least it would make sense that getting Sojitz out of the way would wish to be done before JSE listing, and that an employee share scheme might be easier to arrange at JSE listed BMN level than at vametco/SMC level. On similar thought the new mining charter may include greater benefits to the employees and local communities of mines which is a good thing, but unfortunate if you have just made seperate agreements with your employees and the communities and then are obligated to make further allowences on top by a new mining charter. Could the delayed mining charter and (as I see it) delayed Sojitz deal have caused a delay to managements intended listing on the JSE and in turn the share scheme promised to Vametco staff.?
On a separate thought entirely, does anyone think it possible for us in effect to trade the Imalto coal project for Vanchem? I suspect if we do get Vanchem it may initially be a bit of a double edged sword with its own teething problems, legacy issues and additional investment required to bring it back up to scratch but those things should also mean it will be relatively cheap and over the medium term should offer us fantastic benefit.
Good luck and good night all
My own intentions are very similar to yours Endion, and as good as future prospects here may be I hope/expect that a price will be achieved before the end of the year that will enable me to act on some of my intentions with a top slice and in a way diversification
Looking after those close to me, getting some of the bigger house renovation jobs under way, some woodland, and traveling a part of the world I've not yet seen, perhps Argentina. Further into the future when BMNs try value has been realised by the market I will also be looking to liquidate some of the investment and send it back to South Africa to better the prospects of tomorrows South Africans.
On the woodlands thought, I have been perusing woodland for the past 3 years or so, in my experience here as Bushys value increases so do the ambitions of acreage! Have to say I'm very glad I didn't treat myself to any woods back then and left it in BMN instead. :)
I feel very positive about the coming week.
Seems Fortune is back in london on 22nd November. Interestingly not Mikhail this time. https://www.rmcevent.com