Member Info for ComesMarcellino

Solvonis -

has received a Notice of Allowance from the USPTO for compounds within its SVN-SDN-14 PTSD discovery programme, strengthening the intellectual property ahead of lead candidate selection expected in Q1 2026.

The patent covers novel serotonin, dopamine and noradrenaline modulators designed to support pro-social engagement and enhance psychological therapy effectiveness in PTSD patients.

The compounds address historical development challenges by incorporating predictable metabolic deactivation to improve pharmacokinetic control, dosing flexibility and safety margins while maintaining therapeutic activity. The USPTO examiner confirmed the novelty of the approach, finding no existing patents or publications disclosed the claimed compounds.

The company has also expanded its SVN-015 programme into depression following positive preclinical data showing antidepressant-like activity comparable to fluoxetine (Prozac) after 14-day dosing in validated rodent models.

SVN-015 is a novel Serotonin-Dopamine Reuptake Inhibitor designed to address symptoms poorly controlled by SSRIs, including anhedonia and reduced motivation, targeting a market of over 20 million adults with Major Depressive Disorder in the US alone.

The compound is being developed as a once-daily oral therapy for at-home use aligned with standard antidepressant treatment cycles, and has separately been selected for evaluation by the US National Institute on Drug Abuse for stimulant use disorders, providing independent validation of its pharmacological profile.

This remains an exceptional pharma play.

I am also noticing that up to now there are no SINT trades. My taks is that mm are not trying anymore to walk the sp, so the seller should have finished on Friday. News about 002 and 014 (and 001?) are in line for Q1.

I think it just appeared , 10m

According to Gemini, these are probably Canadian investors or institutions, with the clear mandate to quit. There is nothing to do other than wait that they are done with selling.

There could be tons of reasons why selling despite good news and expected catalysts. This is a gift for the ones believing in the story and with available cash.

It is clear that until news lands, the sp will be at the mercy of traders. In the long term perspective this is just noise, provided that the science behaves the way they claim.

I use Gemini. I think it does a great job, specifically if you feed it with data, to stress test any information or statements you find. One thing to be wary: you can tune the answer to be supportive, balanced or challenging. I tried all three, and I found that the challenging mode falls into generic warning signals, so I prefer the balanced mode. I find useful to rephrase the same question more times in different ways, to double check the consistency.

I think today the battle was definitely won by the seller. I asked AI a few more things. This time I summarise with my own words:

Q: Was the seller an insider knowing poor RNs is coming?

A: No, that would drive panic selling and not a slow walk down of the SP

Q: Could this selling have been predicted?

A: The SINT trades in the previous days might have signaled an SP exploration to find out at what level new buyers could be found. Reading that correctly could have suggested to wait for today as a better entry if the target was to load more.

Q: can the SP drop further?

A: If the seller has more to sell, yes. I am leaning towards that the seller has finished.

Q: Can this affect the SP future performance?

A: That depends on the quality of the next RNs. All scenarios are the same as before.

Q: will geopolitics matter?

A: If the science will prove good, the deal will be made.

I asked AI once again about today price action, specifically requesting to cross check with the morning narrative. Below is the response.

SVNS: Technical Analysis of the 3-Day Compression & Volume Exhaustion

​Analysis:

The current price action in SVNS appears to be following a defined Three-Day Exhaustion Cycle on the XLON venue, likely signifying the final stages of a strategic supply overhang.

​1. Volume Profile vs. Price Drift:

Over the last 72 hours, we have seen a consistent downward tick. However, today’s intraday tape shows a notable divergence: Increasing unit volume on decreasing trade frequency. The appearance of concentrated 1m and 2m blocks on XLON hitting the bid is indicative of a "Principal Trade" or a managed "Leak-Out." In these scenarios, a larger institutional holder is fulfilling a quota at a fixed price floor, rather than multiple retail actors selling out of panic.

​2. Support Level Validation:

The 0.26p – 0.27p range aligns with the historical consolidation base observed in late 2025. The fact that the bid is absorbing multi-million share blocks at this level without a breakdown suggests a significant counter-party buy-side interest is currently neutralizing the seller's pressure.

​3. Technical Indicators:

​Oscillators: Intraday RSI is approaching "Oversold" territory, which often serves as a precursor to a "snap-back" rally toward the 50-day moving average (currently approx. 0.273p).

​Tape Reading: Today’s "Red" prints are likely part of a "Deck Clearing" exercise. In a low-float environment, the removal of a dominant seller typically creates a liquidity vacuum, allowing the price to re-rate rapidly once the overhead supply is exhausted.

​Conclusion:

The current activity represents a high-volume Transfer of Ownership at a technical floor. We are watching for stabilization in the closing auction as a confirmation that the selling cycle has completed ahead of anticipated Q1 operational updates.

I asked AI to analyse yesterday trading dynamics in the same way llamafarmer did few days ago. Below is the response:

SVNS: Technical Analysis of 19-Jan Trading Session & Venue Dynamics

Following the recent consolidation to 0.275p, a forensic look at the tape from yesterday (Monday, Jan 19) provides a clearer picture of the price action. While the mid-price appeared to weaken, the volume distribution across different venues suggests a "mechanical" rather than "organic" drop.

1. Venue Volume Breakdown

Total volume for the session was approximately 19.6M shares, split across three primary execution venues:

SINT (Systematic Internaliser): ~11.1M shares. This represented over 56% of the day's activity. As a reminder, SINT trades occur when a Market Maker (MM) executes against their own inventory ("book").

XLON (Standard LSE Order Book): ~6.5M shares. This is the "lit" market where transparent buy/sell orders meet.

XOFF (Off-Exchange): ~2.0M shares. Private block trades reported to the exchange post-execution.

2. Identifying the "Mechanical" Fade

The move from 0.29p down to 0.275p was characterized by a high frequency of "micro-trades" on the SINT code. We observed numerous sell prints of negligible size (often under £5.00 in value).

Technical Interpretation: These tiny SINT prints are typically used by automated market-making algorithms to "walk back" the mid-price during periods of low retail demand. Because the MM is trading against their own book, they can print these lower prices to manage their inventory risk without requiring a large volume of actual sellers.

3. The Bullish Divergence in XLON/XOFF

Interestingly, while the SINT volume was skewed toward "Sells," the XLON (Open Market) and XOFF (Off-Book) data showed a different trend:

Organic Support: On the actual LSE order book (XLON), the "Buy" volume actually outpaced the "Sell" volume by a notable margin.

Accumulation Signature: The 2M shares traded XOFF suggest that institutional or "high-conviction" hands were picking up blocks quietly while the SINT bots were painting the tape red.

4. Summary & Q1 Outlook

The "drop" yesterday appears to be a Liquidity Trap. By suppressing the mid-price via SINT trades, the market has successfully triggered stop-losses and shaken out short-term momentum players.

However, the fundamentals remain unchanged as we move further into Quarter 1. With the WuXi bridging data for SVN-002 and lead candidate selection for the PTSD program still pending, the current price action looks like a classic "pre-catalyst shakeout."

Conclusion: Look past the mid-price. The real story is in the XOFF accumulation and the lack of high-volume selling on the XLON exchange.

I would be surprised if it drops that much. We are waiting for news, but some have no patience.

Hi B_positive, whilst I appreciate your points, I am a bit concerned about pumping this too much, attracting the next generation of traders that if the sp does not hit 0.5 in two weeks start the next wave of sells. Please I kindly ask you to let GodofHellfire do the techinical promotion, and do not over do. We need quality investors here.

Hi Cekim, I think the issue is that there are too many shares in the hands of traders, willing to sell for 5-10% profit. GodofHellfire is doing an excellent work to attract longer term holders. Orr suffered also of the Lanstead deal and we also just cleared the 0.25 warrants that was a big ceiling to any rerate, despite the excellent drilling results. In my opinion Orr is now in the position for the real run to start.

What I really like here is not just the potential upside, but also the clear path that the BOD has designed, and the commitment of a person with the pedigree of Paul Carter.

This covers the whole spectrum of possibilities, which is very helpful

The GRx success in Singapore should be a positive for EML as well and could bring some momentum

Few days left to 17 January, when remaining 0.25p warrants will be exercised or expire. I think this will release the brake to the SP.

Hello Bamps. Very happy to see you here! All the best!

Merry Christmas to all!

The trades that pulled this down the whole day...

16-Dec-25 08:30:17 0.2639 17,500,000 Unknown* 0.27 0.29 46.18k

16-Dec-25 08:31:17 0.2768 10,000,000 Unknown* 0.26 0.30 27.68k

16-Dec-25 08:32:36 0.2626 8,000,000 Unknown* 0.28 0.30 21.01k

16-Dec-25 14:48:31 0.2828 4,945,739 Unknown* 0.27 0.29 13.99k