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Putin says oil supply cuts possible if all major producers take part

Brent rallies 14% on Kremlin’s first signal it is willing to end month-long price war

https://www.ft.com/content/beb5e187-35e7-457c-a99b-19afe1395040

NATURAL GAS | OIL 03 Apr 2020 | 07:29 UTC London
OPEC+ plans extraordinary meeting Monday via webinar to discuss oil cuts

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/040320-opec-plans-extraordinary-meeting-monday-via-webinar-to-discuss-oil-cuts

BRENT CRUDE
31.63 +5.64% as of now- yesterday it went up to 60% before it came down.

Price Collapse Halves Iraq’s Oil Revenues

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 02, 2020, 4:30 PM CDT

“The Kingdom calls for an urgent meeting for OPEC+ states and another group of countries, with aim of reaching a fair solution to restore a desire balance of the oil markets,” Saudi Arabia said on Thursday, via its official Saudi Press Agency, while President Trump said that he expects and hopes the Saudis and Russia to cut back “approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more.”  

https://oilprice.com/contributors/Tsvetana-Paraskova

Has it reply gone up by 5000%? Thanks

Just as I said yesterday Trump to get the Russia and the Saudis to compromise:

(Sharecast News) - London equity markets rose in early trade on Thursday following heavy losses in the previous session, with energy shares on the front foot amid rising oil prices.

At 0840 GMT, the FTSE 100 was up 0.5% at 5,484.22.

Oil prices rose after US President Donald Trump said he expects Saudi Arabia and Russia to reach a deal soon to end the price war. West Texas Intermediate was up 8.4% at $22.18 a barrel and Brent crude was 9.6% higher at $27.36.

CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson said: "The drag on markets yesterday wasn't helped by continued weakness in the oil price, however we do appear to be seeing some gains in that regard this morning on a couple of headlines that China will start topping up its state reserves, and that Saudi Arabia is supporting co-operation amongst oil producers to stabilise oil markets.

"These gains are helping support rebounds in Royal Dutch Shell and BP's share price, as well as a modest stabilisation in early trading for European markets."

President Trump To Meet With Oil CEOs To Discuss Saudi Oil Tariffs

By Julianne Geiger - Apr 01, 2020, 8:30 PM CDT

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/President-Trump-To-Meet-With-Oil-CEOs-To-Discuss-Saudi-Oil-Tariffs.html

Saudi Arabia’s Oil Price War Is Backfiring

According to Fitch Ratings, Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at $91 a barrel in 2020 to balance its budget, all else being equal. 

At $30 a Brent barrel, the Saudi wealth fund will deplete fast and reduced government spending will stall projects, and the already suffering private non-oil sector will suffer further. That’s the near-term damage. 
The longer-term damage is the lack of funds for the ambitious Vision 2030 plan of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, which was already going downhill even before the oil price collapse as the promised multibillion foreign investment and Saudi investment in “diversifying away from oil” weren’t exactly flowing to the Kingdom. 

“I think we are beginning to see that the vision 2030 is not going well,”   Jean-François Seznec, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council, said on an Atlantic Council press call last week. 

The coronavirus pandemic and the lower economic activity, coupled with oil prices half the level before Russia and Saudi Arabia broke up the OPEC+ pact, will weigh on Russia’s revenues and budget, too. 

Russia’s revenues from oil and gas will be US$39.5 billion (3 trillion rubles) lower than planned, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said this week, adding that Moscow now expects a budget deficit. 

Analysts argue that Russia is in a better fiscal, financial, and political leadership position than Saudi Arabia to win the oil price war. 
Yet, there will undoubtedly be economic pain for both sides in this war, which is already claiming the first collateral victims—U.S. shale, Canada’s oil industry, and the UK’s offshore oil and gas sector. 

It’s now a game between Saudi Arabia and Russia of who will blink first, and in this game, the Saudis seem to have overestimated their fiscal buffers and underestimated the coronavirus-hit enormous demand destruction. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com   

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabias-Oil-Price-War-Is-Backfiring.html

Michaelhighbar, good find thanks. If fact if you quoted the rest of the article, the results were extremely positive: 76% of patients had their condition stabilised or improved:

”The interim data, presented from the first 21 patients treated with siltuximab and followed for up to 7 days, show that one-third (33%, n=7) of patients experienced a clinical improvement with a reduced need for oxygen support and 43% (n=9) of patients saw their condition stabilise, indicated by no clinically relevant changes. Combined, this means that over three-quarters of patients treated with siltuximab (76%, n=16) had either stable or improved disease at this interim analysis. A worsening of the disease was seen in 3 (14%) patients whilst 1 (5%) patient died and 1 (5%) experienced a cerebrovascular event.“

It’s a question of few days before the US take action to save their oil industry by reining in the Saudis. As we know oil companies have big influence over western politicians particularly the US who go to wars on their behalf, eg Iraq, Libya and Syria, the latter for gaz pipeline linking Qatar Syria and Turkey to serve Europe.

U.S. Shale Driller Whiting Petroleum Files For Bankruptcy -- Update
Intraday Whiting Petroleum Chart

Intraday Whiting Petroleum Chart
01/04/2020 4:07pm

Dow Jones News

By Collin Eaton and Andrew Scurria
U.S. shale driller Whiting Petroleum Corp. filed for bankruptcy protection on Wednesday, becoming the first sizable fracking company to succumb to the crash in oil prices.
Whiting's bankruptcy filing comes as many U.S. oil drillers face pressure to meet hefty debt obligations they ran up with banks and bondholders to make America into the world's largest oil and gas producer, as U.S. benchmark crude prices now fall to around $20 a barrel.
Oil prices are coming off their largest monthly drop ever as the coronavirus pandemic saps oil demand at the same time Saudi Arabia presses a price war against Russia by flooding global markets with crude.
Whiting sought chapter 11 protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Houston, touting a proposed settlement with creditors to eliminate $2.2 billion in debt in return for a 97% equity stake.
The Denver-based company, one of the largest drillers in North Dakota's Bakken shale, had come under financial pressure even before U.S. crude prices dropped. By Tuesday, Whiting shares had fallen to 67 cents.
Chief Executive Brad Holly said the company's proposed restructuring was its "best path forward" given uncertainty about how long the Saudi-Russia price war and the pandemic would go on.
Whiting foreshadowed its bankruptcy by taking steps on Friday to protect $3.4 billion in net operating losses, which are potentially valuable tax assets that could be used to reduce future federal taxes.
The company also drew down $650 million from a credit facility last week to generate cash and won't make a $262 million debt payment that comes due Wednesday.
The deterioration in oil prices has pushed many U.S. shale companies to the brink of bankruptcy and doomed the hopes of others to restructure their operations under chapter 11.
Sanchez Energy Corp. reached a proposed deal on Monday to hand control to its bankruptcy lenders after the price collapse dashed their chances of being repaid. EP Energy Corp. is looking for a path out of chapter 11 following the collapse of an exit deal. Alta Mesa Resources Inc. is scrambling to sell its shale assets out of bankruptcy after a proposed sale fell through.
Write to Andrew Scurria at Andrew.Scurria@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 01, 2020 10:52 ET (14:52 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc

See below, Trump had a plan for the Saudis only to put aside for now. But sure he will soon pressurise them. Plus oil price average $38 for 2020.

Anyway bloe is more for gaz which Georgia needs desperately- they consume 40% of gaz for their energy needs yet produce only 5%, as per bloe update. The sp falls due to issues unrelated to bloe the mire opportunities to top up, average down or get in cheaply, as come the next update, which should be soon, this price will be history.

“Adding to the downward pressure, sources told Reuters that top U.S. officials have for now put aside a proposal for an alliance with Saudi Arabia to manage the global oil market.

The Trump administration plans to lease out space for energy companies to store oil in the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, after a previous effort to buy millions of barrels for the emergency stockpile was cancelled over a lack of funding.

A Reuters survey of 40 analysts forecast Brent would average $38.76 a barrel in 2020, 36% lower than the $60.63 forecast in a February survey. (Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell and Miral Fahmy)”

Trump, Putin and the Saudi are talking as I write now that trump has got involved with both. As we can see their economies and that of the world are all in a mess, not to mention the health of the people because of the coronavirus. they need each other to face up to this world challenge, so compromise is a given. Further, Putin is looking to make amends with Trump given the sanctions imposed on Russia, the Saudi rulers survival as we know depend on US protection- not long ago Trump twitted about them “without US protection you wouldn’t last 2 weeks”. The US oil shale industries which made the US exporter for the time in its history is threatened with collapse by the steep fall in oil price, as per the article below. So expect an agreement announcement any day now, followed by a relatively significant oil price which will translate into higher share prices of oil stocks- since january shell sp is down by 54%, Bp by 48%......so bloe is fairing better down 40% ish.

“The U.S. is today showing signs of increased desperation as oil prices sink to levels that may pose a threat to the energy independence of the United States by kicking U.S. shale out of the market.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Far-Will-Trump-Go-To-Save-US-Shale.html

Watching2, we were only one day late for sng-onion at 60p, which we hit yesterday- problems with delivery on Friday due to lockdown. Some people have a lockdown in their brain so can’t sng real value. So I’m opening the garlic bag for 80p by tomorrow close at the latest. Will need granny to help, lol

Mms are in the habit of marking buys as sells, they have done this with my buys twice on here and several times elsewhere. I can’t wait for the aim delisting. They will be deprived of business from at least this stock. They are supposed to make money from more trades yet cause of the huge spread they are preventing people from buying and selling, very strange indeed.

Natural Gas Prices Could Double Next Year

“[A]s we enter the 2020/21 winter, we expect production declines to be visible enough that gas prices will rally sharply in our view to help summer 2021 reach comfortable inventory levels,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a report on Tuesday.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Natural-Gas-Prices-Could-Double-Next-Year.html

Bloe held up well yesterday considering oil price fell by 6%. Although bloe is more about gaz, in such bloodbath market mms mark down everything particularly oil.

However there is good news on the horizon:

Relief On The Horizon? Trump And Putin Discuss Oil Markets
By Julianne Geiger - Mar 30, 2020, 7:30 PM CDT

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on Monday to have energy officials from both countries discuss the dire state of the global oil market, the Kremlin said, according to Reuters.
Trump and Putin discussed the matter over the phone on Monday.
“Opinions on the current state of the global oil markets were exchanged. It was agreed there would be Russo-American consultations about this through the ministers of energy,” the Kremlin said.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Relief-On-The-Horizon-Trump-And-Putin-Discuss-Oil-Markets.html

How Far Will Trump Go To Save U.S. Shale?

The virus also struck around the same time that another critical oil-market event took place: the end of the OPEC+ production cut agreement and the start of the oil price war—with Saudi Arabia on one side and Russia on the other.

The result is that the U.S. shale industry, often touted as the backbone of the U.S. energy independence movement, has found itself caught in the middle between the oversupplied oil market and severely hampered oil demand.
And it looks like the government is getting worried.

Saudi Envoy
On Monday evening, the U.S. made the decision to appoint Victoria Coates as special energy representative to Saudi Arabia. While the United States insists that this was in the works for quite some time, even before the oil war began, the timing coincides rather nicely with the shocking price drop for the US crude grade West Texas Intermediate, which is now trading around $23 per barrel, down from $60-something per barrel at the beginning of the year.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Far-Will-Trump-Go-To-Save-US-Shale.html

This $23 per barrel is not sustainable long term—perhaps not even short term—creating a sense of urgency in the United States to address the problem.
And who better to address than the perceived perpetrator of the oil price war, Saudi Arabia

The good news the sp is this low cause of the general markets and particularly the spat between Russia and Saudi Arabia, which is hurting their budget very badly. And therefore they come to a compromise very soon.

In the meantime an excellent opportunity to top up, average down or get in cheaply before the market turns around and bloe update. It can only get better from here.

Hepseal, thanks for the clarification re lse trade. Much appreciated.

Hopefully some updates on the way.

MakaveliWill, your 1st post ‘ever’, lol. You’d better try stand up comedy, you’ll make more money than investing. I bet you’re one of those who clear supermarkets shelves of toilet paper cause you value your bum more than any other parts of your body, lol

Hepseal, thanks for the info. However looking at the whole page of the trades, I still can’t see the alleged cancelled 2.5m. You quoted lse, this what it shows- I put one trade of either side of the 2 trades in question. Cheers

30-Mar-20 09:05:07 2.3725 100,000 Buy* 2,373 O
30-Mar-20 08:55:20 2.50 2,850,000 Buy* 71.25k O
30-Mar-20 08:55:20 2.50 2,500,000 Buy* 62.50k O
30-Mar-20 08:50:26 2.3725 8,000 Buy* 189.80 O

Hepseal, I see no 2.5m 2nd trade but only one, therefore I see no cancellation. Can you copy it and paste it please? Cheers