George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
The reality is that the country is bankrupt. The PM has said it explicitly. I cannot fathom how this doesn't require a statement from Frayne. Is the IML process stopped/still going/delayed/still imminent? They are literally days away from running out of petrol across the country, that's quite incredible.
An update is urgently required if not regulatory required from the NOMAD. This could easily fall much further; really need to know whether the GMSB is even functioning. It seems to be with recent licenses granted but its very hard to tell!
Not entirely true is it... The IML is in sight; we just don't know when. It's applied for; we just have no insight into when it lands.
Dalt - even you must admit that once the IML is in and CMET can start actual mining; then there will be value added. As frustrated as I am with the opaqueness of the project and inherent risk that Sri Lanka falling apart might mean it all goes wrong; those risks are more short term. Longer term there's obvious value here.
That's the point. If that's the case, why hasn't the imminent IML which has been imminent for over 3 months hasn't happened. The market clearly doesn't believe Frayne. The statements being released by the government doesn't match Fraynes. How can 12 hour scheduled power cuts, no domestic petrol consumption allowed not affect operations/staffing?
It's impossible to get the IML currently imo; I believe all staff are at home tucked up as no petrol/electricity.
I cannot fathom how the nomad hasn't forced them for a statement; this crisis obviously is market sensitive so he should be releasing a statement. I am trying to stay optimistic but I can't see how this will move anytime soon with the IML. The outlook is so bad. Weirdly; it's like you say LW, is it moments away (not sure it is...) and if not why not. It cannot be imminent for months. I've written to MF stating my concerns but I doubt it'll do anything. Next stop is pressuring the nomad.
When Sri Lanka defaults; and it will in a matter of days, will this affect our value? The value is already rock bottom so i'd hope the sentiment is at an all time low but i'm getting worried that it might just be impossible to do business in Sri Lanka atm. This has real risk of becoming a delay of quarters if not years. You would hope they would be desperately trying to get a project like ours of the ground given the foreign currency generation but people aren't going to work for free!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/04/sri-lanka-limits-fuel-to-essential-services-petrol-station-queues
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/sri-lanka-offers-fuel-quotas-to-firms-that-can-pay-in-dollars#xj4y7vzkg
CEOs on AIM don't get egg on their face with placings. It all gets thrown into the market regardless of what RNS's say. You'd like to think Frayne is different in this regard. They do seem to be genuinely trying to get things done, I just can't fathom why there's no update into what the hold up is. Like you say, you assume no news means that it's going to be imminent so no point in saying it's imminent. Then weeks turn into months and we are all left scratching our heads.
Got to keep hoping!
Here's hoping for a better week...
Still not sure what MF was up to moving shares about... one can only hope its for tax reasons before some decent gains!
They are definitely sells.
Where the F is Frayne. This is plummeting. His disdain for shareholders is bordering on appalling.
I cant blame you. When I averaged down again I almost wish I had just sold. There isn't any real advantage atm in doing so for me as you say, very little out there in the market that will generate the return needed to fix this position. I am baffled by this share atm, unbelivable value once unlocked yet market has no interest. I believe this is down to Fraynes shocking management of communication. Sri Lanka appears to be falling apart yet silence from Frayne. How a country running out of petrol and rationing it doesn't affect a mining company baffles me. Even if it doesn't, he should update. You look back through his statements and realise how off track this has got without him explaining quite why.
Definitely sells I'm afraid.. I did some dummy buys/sells and they were at that level. Someone exiting a large position...
Let's hope I'm wrong and it doesn't continue if it is a sell but it makes sense.
Eeek; some big sells going on now. Hope this isn't the start of a freefall!
State institutions are shut; there are power cuts; this is market affecting and Frayne should be commenting. His podcast last week is looking even more stupid given he said everything was fine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/impossible-situation-sri-lankans-struggling-petrol-2022-06-29/
Mainly because a lot of people have been in heavily since 15p plus...
Delays mean further placings as they run out of cash without the income from offtaking/production.
This makes recovering losses more difficult; that's the main worry!
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/crisis-hit-sri-lanka-shuts-schools-urges-work-home-save-fuel-2022-06-27/
Still no comment from Frayne; quite concerning given they are now rationing power; agencies are shut and petrol only available to essential services...
His last podcast suggested there were some minor problems, how is he unsure whether a lack of petrol might hinder any development or building work! I'm not saying he is misleading the market but he sure isn't keeping it updated when he should!
Or bailing out at a big loss which isn't even bigger in a few weeks/months...
This lack of insight into the licence process is no longer acceptable imo, could get a lot worse I fear if people begin to panic.
Is Frayne taking the proverbial?
That last update was god awful; didn't tell us anything about the delay and we are nearly sub 5p. This is going towards over 75% down from Jan last year. What an absolute joke yet zero comment from management on the subject that is clear everyone is worried about.
This has to be one of the only shares where PR has zero effect. It's bizzare. A whiff of oil and some stocks go mad.
It is a fact we have a genuine resource with world wide beating levels of resource. That has been proved. So now it's literally a binary bet of whether the mining licence is granted. "We are at the final stages of that process" - same comment again as previously; still absolutely no explanation as to why it's held up. What is the final stage?! Could so easily elaborate but just doesn't. The podcasts say very little new each time.
Government is very keen/offtakers very keen/project is perfect for the country/very optimsitic... all noise without any new content. Doesn't stop it being a good situation once IML is granted but doesn't add anything either.
The thing is though, conspiracy theories start in the vacuum of news. The IML is a rubber stamp, all the big contentious issues are in the EIA. The only potential could be an issue with the land which was allegedly all mainly owned by the government. This may be causing the headache. Also; Frayne must/should be doing a press release. You cannot have the leader of a country come out and say the economy has collapsed and that have no effect on the sentiment of CMET. It's a little disrespectful imo to continue to not think shareholders should be kept appraised when huge statements like that are flying about. Wouldn't even need to be an RNS; easily done via PR/Twitter.
The delay continues on into H2 with still no idea what is the actual issue....
Agreed, this update is from drilling nearly 9 months ago. That's a pace that is just too slow.
It's all good news of course, just irrelevant until the clarity over getting it out of the ground is sorted! Like you say; I'm keen to hear what is exactly wrong with the IML currently (if anything!). Just a status update. Hopefully some PR off the back of this and someone actually asks them the question unlike the last TMS podcast.
Are we really going to get to H2 without any news on the IML?
Really really frustrating. Like you say, what else is there to do/say. Might have to email the pr firm to ask for any info possible.