Shaun Day, Greatland CEO gave an upbeat presentation to over 800 London South East investors. Watch the full video here.
I don't think you can use a pe x 10 on Shanta as market rarely does this on 5 year mine plans. Most 1moz gold developments have 7 year mine lifes etc which ultimately get extended with more resource drilling but not all deliver on economics when grades drop. I think best pe market will give Shanta is 6. However the market does like exploration and does like indicated resources so that's really where the growth should come from as Eric has implied. Spend £1m drilling and generate £10m of equity work. It's about deploying the cash in ways that deliver growth but also replenish reserves on annual basis. NLGM has been a real hard worker and is well past its initial mine life. The question the market will be asking Eric is hoe confident are you of your recent infill drilling on NLGM? Can you get the grades up and so on. When Eric can prove that, I think the market will give Shanta a higher pe than current level as at present, the market is unsure NLGM will ever be producing back at 80koz levels. That said, it may end up Singida carries the weakness in NLGM and Shanta delivers a steady 60koz from NLGM and 30koz from Singida with upside of 5koz to 10koz from latter once fully up and running. Does it matter how Shanta get to 100koz?? Probably not but I think the chances of Singida being a 40koz to 50koz mine and NLGM being a 50koz to 60koz mine is more likely as we head toward WK coming online. I fully expect NLGM to be close to uneconomical/end of life by the time WK is fully delivering 120koz+ with possibly a golden cross over period around 2025 when we have all 3 mines contributing fully. Can we get to 250koz ?? I think it's possible but all depends on whether NLGM can keep going with decent grades.
rcgl2, all will be revealed soon. Give the guys in the know to load up a few million shares first and then drop the news. Always smart to run these things past your larger shareholders if a vote is required especially when last events showed a very small difference in share votes. It's all too do with fighting off the inevitable but I think they'll fail to get the support they need simply because the bigger players have credibility and SOLG have very little left. Volumes up... I smell greed brewing... lovely jubbly and long overdue. Lets get this business sold! Rio, Barrick ... who's up for an auction?
addicknt, I presume that's a rhetorical questions to RK as you know the answers.
Last years AGM as fractious. Since then what exactly has SOLG done to placate previous larger shareholder concerns?? Yep... absolutely zero! So no wonder they are ringing around trying to explain xy and z as they know unless they smooth things over various resolutions won't be going through. I certainly won't be voting through any more share options to directors. And I won't be voting through more additions to the shares in issue/treasury. And lets face it... when the 2 largest shareholders say... NM you're out and we want a new CEO... then a new CEO needs to be found. The absence of the latter is certainly one reason for a 'road show' to try and appease all the other larger shareholders as they'll need to work out the votes again like they did last year. If they need pi votes then expect to be dripped over with nice RNS's leading up to the event lol! They seem to issue them when they want or need them and notwhen they are available which annoys me. Where's the news on first visible cores at Sharug or Rio then?? Where's the news on jv grass root discussions. An update would be nice. Has an auction process been set for these? I could go on. And as for that Tandy MRE... what's that about? Why not wait another 6 weeks for at least another 5 to 10 holes to be included. Doesn't take long to model into the MRE. Brining out an MRE2 a few months later is I suppose another catalyst but not exactly sensible stuff as if that logic pans out then why wasn't Porvenir MRE1 out before Tandy?? Porvenir is more advanced so that's a puzzle unless of course it has more to do with ENSA discussions hence why the MRE was brought forward. Remember, Tandy adds to CGP's worth as well. Could we be looking at a consolidation of ENSA into 100% and CGP finally coming on board and ENSA spun off into canadian market listing leaving SOLG purely an explorer???
Similar quarter to Q2 and confidence on NLGM (at the moment) still not great. However Shanta is a two sided business and the exploration side is going great guns and as long as the cash generation supports that model, all looks good. As I thought, due to lower NLGM production and cashflows, they have pushed Singida first pour back from Q4 22 to Q1 23. Lower grades hurting aiscs but good to see 2nd minor divi maintained. For balance if they had pulled that divi promise then I would be concerned.
Being frank, it's been a very poor year on production but these things happen. I think they'll managed cash flows more carefully going forwards for next 6 months so might see WK exploration drilling pushed into Q2 mid 2023 as Singida is key and there's $25m+ needed to spend on that and only $19m cashpile. I think they had planned for a cash pile nearer $30m so weak NLGM production and weaker POG hurting the ambitious cash flow funded plans.
VAT cash back welcome but without those vat bonuses this year, things would not look as good so thank you Tanzania gov.
Another mixed bag quarter and I think the market might want to see clear signs of improvement in NLBM before any rerating takes place. Higher POG needed nearer term to help with with sentiment. Weaker POG and that's going to hurt with aiscs nearing $1500oz.
Was hoping NLGM would have returned at least 15.5koz. So disappointing. I think 60koz lower band now realistic target as can't see them breaking records with 23koz in q4. Need to get that higher grade material in their Luke and fast!!
I seriously hope Eric releases the update tomorrow as he tries another one of those 'bury it on friday' releases then I fear it won't be happy ready. Could be monday next week ? Eric usually goes for the good news releases on a Monday or Tuesday... mmm!
follow the money as greed is easy to find
With SOLG's trading volumes so low of late, not surprised Sangha gone for the CGP option. One thing is sure, it's going to be very hard to hide the buying interest and volume increases in the future as anything over 1m shares traded these days implies some added interest. If we see a 10m+ volume days (which I have a hunch will be on the way soo, then we know we're nearing the exciting phase. Buy the dips!
DeBeers update as quite bullish with another strong sales cycle at well over double the levels seen last year. We are heading into the strongest 4 months for diamond market ending around or just after the Chinese new year period. If we can get through winter flu period without MP's acting like muppets then we should be ok for strong 2022. Greatest threat to global recovery isn't covid or flu, it's the headless chickens running the US, EU and UK to mention just a few.
I think they will be using a similar template to persuade SOLG shareholders in a few months time. It's all about having the cash now as opposed to risk in future and long time for share price to reflect asset values
BHP increases all-cash offer for Noront to C$0.75 per share
Noront recommends shareholders accept improved BHP offer
· BHP increases its all-cash offer to Noront shareholders to C$0.75 per share, representing a 36% premium to its previous offer, a 7% premium to the Wyloo offer and a 213% premium to Noront's unaffected price.
· Noront supports BHP's improved offer and recommends shareholders tender now to receive the cash consideration offered.
· The BHP offer will be open until 11:59 p.m. (Toronto time) on November 9, 2021. Shareholders have 22 days to decide to accept the full and immediate value offered by BHP.
· BHP's offer does not require Wyloo's support to be successful.
· BHP's all-cash offer provides certainty of value and liquidity.
Offer expires 11:59 p.m. (Toronto time) on November 9, 2021; for more information visit NorontTender.ca
Toronto, Ontario / Melbourne, Victoria - October 20, 2021 - BHP Lonsdale Investments Pty Ltd ("BHP Lonsdale"), a wholly owned subsidiary of BHP, and Noront Resources Ltd. (TSXV: NOT) ("Noront") announced today that BHP has agreed to increase its all-cash offer for Noront shares to C$0.75 per share (the "Offer").
The Noront Board, considering the superior C$0.75 per share cash purchase price in the amended Offer, has determined that the proposal from Wyloo Metals Pty Ltd. ("Wyloo"), at a price of C$0.70 per share, has ceased to be a "superior proposal", and recommends the Noront shareholders tender their shares to the BHP Offer.
Shareholders have until 11:59 p.m. (Toronto Time) on November 9, 2021 to accept the increased Offer and tender their shares.
Improved Premium & Highest All-Cash Offer Available to Shareholders
BHP's increased Offer of C$0.75 per Noront share is superior to other offers available to Noront and its shareholders. BHP had the option to match Wyloo and elected to exceed Wyloo's proposal by C$0.05. BHP's increased offer delivers compelling value to Noront shareholders:
213% premium over Noront's unaffected price of C$0.24
36% premium over BHP's previous offer of C$0.55 per share
7% premium over Wyloo's latest offer of C$0.70 per share
BHP Chief Development Officer, Johan van Jaarsveld, said: "Our increased offer of C$0.75 per share provides a compelling premium for Noront shareholders and is available to shareholders now. Our offer provides shareholders with the value inherent in Noront's portfolio of projects, including the Eagle's Nest project, delivering shareholders who accept our offer certainty of value and immediate liquidity."
Certainty of Value Today; Protection from Execution & Dilution Risk
The Offer provides 100% cash consideration for Noront shares, providi
SOLG are custodians. Licence holders. They don't own anything in ecuador at all. That's the reality. Owning the licence blocks is all that matters but that comes at a heavy cost too as each licence block has direct capital cost requirements. Millions must be spent or the licence blocks need to be relinquished if cash not spent. That's why we saw about 10 non core licence blocks handed back to Ecuador mining authorities. Now we know there are more licence blocks that will soon require capital spend or we'll lose them. I'm sure someone with the time at hand could dig deeper and highlight which blocks are next for the chop. BHP can't be happy with seeing these blocks handed back and potentially into competitor hands. That said, they are no doubt potentially sitting tight waiting on more blocks to come up for free. That's why they are in no rush. They are just watching SOLG slowing disintegrate under the weight of such a large folio, a folio better suited to a Super Major. If SOLG are not careful, they'll spread themselves so thin that even the financiers will run a mile as Alpala becomes under threat from the mother company going under. That's why there are several offshore / corp entities set up. Protection is required across the folio from Ensa to Green rock resources etc.
But at some point SOLG are going to need to consolidate and that time is fast approaching imho. It's time to realise that the burden of the folio is too much as is the likely capital risks associcated with taking Alpala to production. Rio's problems with Oyu Tolgoi is a prime example. Had SOLG been behind that (had that been Alpala) SOLG would have followed SXX. Now lessons have been learned from Oyu Tolgoi and hence why we are into PFS2 even without seeing the PFS1 lol! A smaller scale lower risk project suits SOLG but it still carries heavy risks as these projects can be very complicated.
Most investors know we are into the end game it's just a teeth pulling exercise watching SOLG management try and spin it out for another 12 months. You only get one chance at that kind of thing and SOLG's was last year. It's deliver PFS time or hand over the keys and one hopes for a decent sum. I'm bullish here but merely because I see the end close. If SOLG were serious of going into development, then we'd have had a CEO 3 months ago for sure. You can only string things out fo so long before people finally start calling your bluff. And SOLG... Berry Street Capital have called your bluff. Block cave expertise?? Forward planning?? All the things that a developer would be motoring ahead on are absent as SOLG want to look the part, talk the talk but not actually walk the walk.
Get the business sold before most of it goes back for free.
yes, bit like have a pre cosy AGM with major shareholders and a select few to see how it might play out and how the resolutions fit with them. If it looks like they have a few votes missing or short on getting over the line, then better to pull the resolutions then run the risk of embarrassment hey??
Now using a simple thing called common sense... if you add in BHP and NCM's votes combined with CGP throw in some NM related holdings and hey presto you prob get close to the 55%+ level. So in theory, if you have your major shareholders on board then you're good to go with most resoluttions.
However... if what you plan to propose is going to upset the major shareholders then of course you need to do a major roadshow on the other key vote holders.
So unsurprising really as last years battle resulted in NM getting the boot (hypothetically lol!) and I suspect BHP and NCM will be ready to vote against most resolutions if it does not fit with their low bal takeover ambitions. In reality this is what happens whe your two major shareholders are indeed your main enemy and predators in waiting. But that's listed companies for you. You dance with the devil everytime you go cap in hand. SOLG's days are numbered as i'm not going to be voting in favour of any kind of dilution (beyond the usual $40m exploration budget) what-so-ever. The days of confetti shares are over Mr Mather. And your options are getting cancelled with every year that passes. I thank you for the Franco deal. That was good. But it bought you 12 months tops and you've got the next 2.5 months to deliver otherwise you and all SOLG board are toast as I have no doubts that any new owner of SOLG will be firing the bulk of this shoddy board.
RichTheNewbie, not sure who mentioned a fund raise again but Shanta should be fine with cash flows based on current POG and 65koz+. It might be tight next year as bulk of that $25m on Singida will weigh on quarterly cash flows. It's heavily weighted to 2022 as main development kicks off proper with gold pour expected for Q4 2022 (probably late Dec if cash generation slower as they'll push it out a bit).
Hence vat funds or refunds much appreciatd and needed at present while NLGM gets over it's weaker 'pockets'.
"Valuation: GBp105 target price implies 278% upside"
Ok - Hannam, I guess you are the mouth piece for SOLG Board so can you or citi pick up the phone to BHP or whoever and get an auction organised with sealed bid round toward end and guide price of 105p please. Then we can get this all closed off, see the back of Mather and his high salaried bunch of merry men and women.... and Lasso and IMG can all start discussions on forward working plans with a Super Major behind them guaranteeing the development and no doubt a swarm of city spivs happy to collect their consultancy fees as they pass go.
Lets get it done as SOLG have had their chance this year. These boys can't be left alone with these assets for another 12 months. It's reckless, timewasting stuff and it's time to get this folio of terrific assets into some leading mining companies hands for a fair price.
105p and I'm gone. And I know plenty out there who would be off based on just half of that so come on SOLG, just get the sale process up and running please and tell the financiers all rubbing their hands that they can feck off. It's going to auction.
Very unprofessional by SOLG and certainly befitting of a small time AIM management team that have been elevated to higher echelons due to the asset rather than knowledge. It's a classic example of a small company hitting it big and the same management team hang on and think they are super major calibure. They are not. They are what they started off as. And that's a bundle of chaps capable of securing Ecuador licences and sticking drill bits in the earth. What they are not is a development company. An a tier 1 asset should not be in the hands of these numpties. Just hand the keys over to the boys that know what to do for goodness sake. Mather and his bunch of merry men are looking more out of depth than ever before. It's time the major shareholders said no to the AGM resolutions and cosy governance chats are not going to alter that sentiment. The chairman could easily have answered RK's questions with loose but either positive responses. Guides on timeframes for news. Confirmation of pfs on track. Confirmation ceo on track.. confirmation.... that they are on track. Instead, he sounds like he's guffed off and then says... oh by the way... you can't tell everyone else that. Utterly pointless.
Now where's the nomad??
"I have no plans to buy...or especially sell...any more stock..."
I'm afraid to break it to you Redknight, but you are effectively an insider and as such not allowed to trade certainly in the near future. You might be able to see some shares once all info is released but until then, you've capped your trading habits. Plenty of pi's dragged over the coals by FCA due to insider information.
Anyway - that aside, it's clear that SOLG need to raise finance but as Berry Street Capital were implying, it must be done 'after' the PFS and at a much higher share price.
The Yanks or canadians are welcome to a slice post PFS but not at anything less than 45p. Trouble is... as per last AGM SOLG are handcuffed on the shares available to place for equity. And that's probably what all these cosy governance chats are about... they need to get a decent approval level for an equity raise/share issue and I don't think BHP and NCM will be liking that unless of course they get a decent share themselves which leaves everyone else where exactly?? Diluted?? I just can't see it happening that way. Rights issue would be fair outcome but toruble is yanks and canadians are not 'in' enough to benefit lol!
The way I see this playing out is that SOLG 'have' to get a decent equity raise away otherwise the other secured or unsecured debt cb's etc wont sign up. Chicken and egg stuff. But lets get real here, if the equity / finance package looks poor for retail and most shareholders then ultimately BHP are just going to offer a slightly (very slight) premium to draw this prolongued saga to a swift end.
I'm sorry twiggy boy... but unless i'm covered on any dilution issues going forward, I will be accepting BHP's and NCM's alternative offer. So chew on that one as I won't be the only one. Governance road shows or not.
I'm hoping BHP miss out on SOLG too with the winner being Barrick or Rio. That would mean a greater price. Don't kow what it is about Aussie mentality but it seems they get hung up on paying fair price and want everything on the cheap. That said, not too dissimilar to the chinese which incidentally could do with SOLG's folio but imagine Biden and his new chum Lasso won't be having any of that. They can have the roads and infrastructure... as per normal.
interesting to see them using $3.30 copper and $1700oz gold pricing. Looks like this might be the new industry benchmark as GGP used similar. With copper in high demand in the future 'green' years, I can't quite undestand the mentality behind the $3.30 pricing. Makes no sense to me but clearly all involved can see the upside in economics. I wonder whether we'll get Tandy MRE-2 in Q1 2022... just when they are fighting off BHO is my guess... powder dry guys... keep that powder dry.
Interesting to see them release the MRE on Tandy so soon. It's good to see the base case MRE with sizable 'indicated' (bankable) resources. 1.2moz of gold is very economic and may explain why they printed the MRE early. The fact is, they are what looks like halfway through with many holes still to come from the highest grade south west corner. This could turn out to be a very nice small bolt on early prodution development while Alpala is a longer project etc. So get 130koz+ over 7 years plus while Alpala is developed with overlap of a few years. They seem tight lipped on the other holes. All in all, this looks like a strategic MRE designed to give a solid story but keep anyone like BHP and co guessing on the remaining holes. Keeping the powder dry somewhat.
"Drilling has continued at the TAM deposit during the estimation process and visual mineralisation from Holes 19-30 suggest potential for future resource growth in the southeast quarter of the open pit optimised shape and particularly in the east and southeast depth extensions of the underground optimised shape where the highest grade mineralisation encountered thus far remains open". END.
Yes could to see them confirming the TU for 28th. Only 8 trading days away so plenty of time to see the mm's shake off some of the recent 51p buyers before getting the sp back into the high 60's pre update. I would think the cash pile will start to build nicely here on. In the past 2 years, GEMD have had the $25m+ of Ghagoo debt to clear and I believe that was completed in Q1 with remainder going via asset sale to VAST as announced in Q2. So the business is much leaner and meaner now and more than capable of delivering a special dividend surprise. At low 60's, the yield could be has high as 4% on that alone. Combined with divi from earlier in year and that's almost 10% gifted to holders with averages nearer 50p levels. Do that YoY and I'll be quite happy to hold for next 5 years+