I can't see it going on for more than a couple of months. The appointed sale advisors will have plenty to do as I am sure they have interested parties for one asset but not all and then interested parties for all assets. It's tricky, as lets say Buyer A wants the lot for $500m and by the lot, I mean 4 main parts as below
2. Producing PLAT licence blocks
4. PUT blocks aka OXY deal
Now if Buyer A is offering a decent wedge for the entire bundle then lets get that deal done. But hang on, buyer B really really wants the PUT blocks and OBA. So back to buyer A we go and they are not interested in Plat blocks without OBA included. Then there's buyer C who wants nothing south and just wants the 30% stake in CPO-5. The permutations are not endless but there's enough of them to cause some weeks to pass by.
Ultimately, the advisors are trying to get out the best price for shareholders. If it was as simple as all parties involved want the lock stock and barrel, then it's straight sealed bids time, easy to sort.
As an example, GTE might want PUT-8 but nothing else. OXY might want PUT-8 and OBA and nothing else. ONGC might want 30% CPO-5 or Ecopetrol might want it.
In real estate langauge, if you have a farm with many outbuildings, do you try and sell off some land and outbuildings priced per plot or do you try and sell off the entire FARM and leave that to someone else to deal with. Invariably, the latter will fetch less but it's a certain sale with no left overs or loose ends to worry about.
seems a few little nibbles today, almost as quiet and under the radar as the last few 100k blocks just before someone bluffed it to 9.5p off back of twitter nonsense.
Either news is coming or someones getting a twitter leak part 2 lined up. Hopefully this time they'll get banged up for market abuse.
That said, if chinese money doesn't arrive 'at all' then I think a few more could be sharinga gaol cell.
Just chill. There's no point watching the prder book every minute of every day. TD on first well is not for 25days or more. I think you'll see plenty of sellers and buyers on the book over the next 4 weeks so you better get used to it.
It will be in the 60's soon and I think 70's or 80's upon 1st well success or 1st and second well success.
Buyers will be coming in their droves soon as the risk vs reward on this stock is massive. The market can't price this at £50m market cap and price ECO at 5 times that amount.
It's not about direct comparisons - it's about how the market prices 2p or 3p resources and at present I3E has reserves in the bank never mind huge resource add on targets.
Might see a spud today and RNS later or might be tomorrow. Eitherway, we are into operational time now the rig is on location so the £'s or $'s are being burned everyday.
If spuds' tomorrow, then I think first news on Pilot well be through by 15th/18th Sept.
Market clearly happy to price in 'resources' as per ECO share price and in theory should add more of a premium to I3E due to the resources becoming reserves in some cases or closer to the 1P/2P category.
The trade data on this site is not accurate. Market markers are notorious for posting delayed trades which will be tricky to validate against bid/pffer and varied spreads.
The trade data is there as a guide and in many cases the buys are actually sells and sells often are buys. It often depends on what they do with the spread and how they diguise the mid price.
L2 is your go to if you want to really see what's going on and even then it's spoofed to high heaven these days!
I think you're reading too much into it. It's basically down to ROWE exiting and they still have quite a few shares to dipose of and the shorters are riding their coat tails.
When ROWE are done selling and assuming PDL report a bullish update on sept 16th, then you'll get your turn-around.
II sellers can take stocks to depths never seen before purely because they tend to be unsophisticated types which just sell regardless of the business performance.
Surely Winton are not going to try the same trick? They did this last week. Pushed the sp back to 9.5p and then shorted it down to 8.6p. With volume so low, they really are struggling to generate any mugs in participating in their game.
About £70k in value traded. It's a joke.
no news is good news in this case. As stated before, if Lombard were doing selling of any meaningful amount, then they would need to declare position via RNS if they dipped below 16%. Having 16.49% to date means they would only have to sell a few to trigger that RNS. Therefore, no news from lombard means it is undoutedly MITON doing the selling and as we know they are sub 3% which means they are not far from being out.
Assuming they exit in the next week or so, then just imagine the scrabble for shares by the mm's when orders come in and they have no MITON to supply them.
This stock is teeing up for a trip into the 70's/80's on a successful first well in around 25 to 30 days time.
The way the company has communicated news including apparent 'issues' which have seen the sp gyrate around is unbelievable when viewed against this MBO/owner buyout.
This is a classic example of painting a poor picture to shareholdes only then to make an offer for the business. In the end, with a shareholder / owner of 72% was it really going to go any other way.
FCA should look into this for absue as looks like certain new events were beneficial to a owner seeking to devalue his business before taking it off the market.
get this survey and well drilled and if all goes well do you really think PVR will be around for much longer?
The company is already preparing for the inevitable sale by downsizing and effectively turning into an admin outfit while the main asset gets appreciated, valued and sold.
I'm sure Tony's mate will help out with a £1m cash fund to help through to end of 2020. Nick Furlong is in quite deep here and doesn't seem too worried by the Chinese dribble.
Winton Capital Management Ltd 0.60% 0.10% 16 Aug 2019
I thought the rise on the 16th looked manufactured. Take it up and hope they hook a few in and then short it some more from mid 9's.
The good news is they are clearly not that happy about shorting it in the mid 8's.
I think they are intent on pushing it to 7's and perhaps hoping the inevitable poor De Beers upcoming cycle this week will be enough to dent sentiment and get the stock into low 8's.
you don't wnat to fund raise at 8p unless it's a tony mates fund raise. If it's to the city, then you want to do the fund raise after you've completed the survey and drill. The sp will be north of 30p by then so the II's can have a few million shares at 25p and 3 or 4 mil comes into PVR for admin costs to cover next 2 years of Tony lunches
I think the survey costs are slightly less than $10m hence why the first installment is for aroudn $10m or 9mil euros which ever way you want to forex it.
The brokers and market are not daft. They know the score here. If there was any doubt whether these funds were coming or not, the sp would be 5p. The fact that it's teetering around 8p suggests more are thinking along the lines of ... money will arrive .. soon!
these rigs are not cheap, so they'll spud as soon as they are locked down and ready to drill. Likely tomorrow spud RNS is my guess. Next 90 days+ is going to be 'transformatonal'.
If all goes well, should cosy up to ECO and JOG valuations with ease. 150p to 200p. Market being way over complacent here and the sell volume has eased up abit as imagine Miton must be almost cleared now. No RNS thus far means it has to be a holder with a sub 3% interest.
gone quiet hasn't it.
Last time it went quiet, we had an indicative offer.
Must be getting close to the time for formal bids to be tabled. The business is not complicated or difficult to price. There is no debt. It's simple really.
Meanwhile... Where's that Indico-2 spud then?? Colombian gov could have making royalties from EWT production and that's rev they are missing out on right now and that's down to the sloth like progress of ONGC.
The pilot well will be suspended and they will re-enter it in 2022 and complete the horizontal section which delivers the production and reserves as per phase 1. That well will be the first development well. The senior debt holders want this development well derisked (eg 100% secure) before providing the additional funding required to see phase 1 production of 20kbopd.
All information widely accessible via RNS's... if you take the time to read them.
There will be plenty on the sidelines who are not liking the price movement. If Miton are done selling they might be sitting and watching this pass 60p in a few days time.
We back to back 3 x wells with over 70% CoS, why on earth would the market keep the stock at £45m cap? It's a £100m cap business based on even a 1 in 3 well success rate. 2 in 3 and it's £150m and 3 out of 3 and we are heading for 200m Cap.