The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Wooooooooh!
Spewing a stream of consciousness at 02:00 BST is not a good look.
I generally find when people start insulting me I've won the argument although to be true it's an argument you picked not me.
Clearly HUM and the whole investing thing has got to you.
You need to calm down and consider whether you're mentally strong enough for this game. Lashing out it not going to solve whatever problems you have...
It was just meant to be a bit of light hearted fun. Clearly not a concept you're familiar with.
Btw if you are going to use an analogy make sure it's apposite. Picking a lottery ticket requires only a decision on what number to pick NOT the probability of that number coming up.
To claim 20p is nailed on in the next week is silly. However, I would say that it's not unreasonable in the next 3-4 months. Equally 0p is not out of the question.
So my probability spectrum is:
40p - 1%
20p - 20%
15p - 30%
10p - 30%
5p -14%
0p - 5%
Given the stratospheric price of gold at the moment the more HUM/Coresa can shovel dirt out of the ground the better for the dire finances. Assuming Yani pays for itself (very conservative at $1400) then if the HUM/Coresa dream team can shift and put through say 20000 tonnes of ore a week (which is what Yani is achieving) at an average of 3grammes a tonne gives a gold output of around >2000 oz a week. Depending on the agreement with Coresa and thus running costs as opposed to fixed costs will be a fraction of this. So if they can keep at least $1m a week to pay interest and debt they may have a real chance of hacking back the debt.
The problem is that the company have been very coy about how much ore they have been processing at Kour even at a "steady state" before all the bovver with fires and disputes with contractors. I've looked through the RNSs and can't find any figures.
Does anyone have any stats they can provide the forum?
So your saying a company with a good reputation throughout the industry tried to renage on their contractual obligations?
My dear chap - nothing so crass! It's all perception and depends on which side of the argument you are on. Yes I'm sure that's how HUM saw it but I'm also sure Corica felt that they had been strung along and enough was enough and what a good time to apply max pressure just before pay dirt.
One needs to empathise and role play the opposing strategies to attempt to understand what has been going on.
Don't forget that (for once) useful diagram in the presentation showing exactly what had been stripped away and it was clear substantial amounts of ordinary dirt had been shifted.
My suspicion is that good old know how had been kicking in with increasing amounts being moved in week on as excavator operators, dump truck drivers, explosives teams etc had learnt the hard way how to do things and how not to do things.
I only hope that acquired know how can be rapidly reinstated as full ramp up begins....
So why stop?
Well that's pretty obvious. After all the fires and faffing around during the last 12 months the operation was about to hit pay dirt and with cash about to pour into the coffers Corica realised they would then be disposable since cash would give HUM optionality and would string them along about coughing up the amount they were demanding.
It was a high risk option for them and it has palpably failed. Given HUMs finances they had every incentive to hang tough and clearly Corica have blinked.
Mind you the revitalised operation now needs to extract that pay dirt out of the ground and into the mill AS FAST AS POSSIBLE.
Nero - you make a good point about Onion changing tax domicile. Agreed he's paid way too much already for just doing nothing except giving meaningless presentations. Even these seem to have stopped. However, the prospect of a really big payday could easily prompt the move.
Incidentally it's not that big a deal to domicile your tax affairs to tax free location. Your family can stay in Blighty and you can stay also for up to 181 days. Once you've received your big lump of takeover dosh you than then re-domicile back to the UK the next tax year .
Simples!
Having attended (virtually) CMCLs latest presentation to the market it was pretty clear the COO leaving was a direct consequence of the quarterly debacle. It was not just the lack of foresight on the oxide layer but the fact that in opening up the new shaft they left machinery and working in the older less productive shafts vastly increasing their operating costs. In other words they spread themselves too thinly.
The look on the CEOs face when he explained that to me said it all.
You are clearly unhappy about the complete absence of concern the Board has for us. So, if you have that many shares then please vote against all the resolutions at the AGM.
Yes its a blunt tool and a sharp kick in the goolies but just what does it take to get some info - any info!
Sorry for any confusion
Put the SA operation on care and maintenance until the authorities get their act together and issue the necessary licenses for the gold contained in the spoil heap. Expand operations in SA since if they can make money out of SA consignments on Ghana how much better would the money be if processed in SA itself.
I rather think they'll need something useful to say a little bit earlier than November. Like before when their AGM is held.
Like I said 2 days ago. Vote against all resolutions. If enough of us do that maybe the Board might suddenly remember that we are still in the majority and might need communicating with.
It's looking increasingly like a billionaires plaything and as we all know they are like spoilt little children. They don't like to share...
Generally the accounts need to be produced first. The company has until 6 months after year end to do this.
Strictly speaking you're confusing non dom with non resident.
I've bored Britain on this subject for many years. High level - you can "live" somewhere like Monaco and pay absolutely no taxes apart from an initial "joining fee" (pocketed by the Monacan royals). After that you don't have to live there. You can quite happily flit around the world with a tourist visa and for the UK you'll be able to stay up to 181 days a year and not be caught by any tax. The US is similar but more complicated.
I haven't done this recently but if you go down the UK rich list my guess is you'll find no one actually resident in the UK for normal tax purposes. Also don't be fooled by Swiss tax residency. For some reason Swiss federal law allows rich individuals to negotiate a personal tax deal that is kept secret so you can guess what sort of rate is paid!
What has this got to do with my original complaint? Well it's pretty clear people who do this a parasites. In reality they live in normal taxed countries, enjoy all the benefits both personal and business and pay nothing towards the basic social and business fabric and we ordinary folk have to and yet these parasites disproportionally benefit from our tax dollars.
In summary it's clear they don't give a toss about us in the wider economic and social context do you really think they are on our side in respect of the company sale?
Vote against all motions and let them know we are not pushovers!
I think you're being too kind. The process has been going for the best part of 18 months. They could take us through their original thinking leading up to the putting up for sale sign, how the numbers of interested parties have grown and fallen. Why people have dropped out why new people have appeared, why the process has taken so long, has the effect of sanctions diminished over time, have the management up their expectations of the selling price with the rise in gold price or have they kept it the same and instead tried to wrap the sale process up etc etc etc.
None of the above breaches confidentiality but would at least gives me confidence they are serious about selling. Saying the are is on thing actually selling the company is another.
Sure the gold price has gone up since the start but that doesn't make us masters of the universe. Just lucky.
Our luck could also run out...
It's been well over a year since I sat in a poky room with Slimshady talking to our esteemed CEO via a screen who was decidedly distant (in all senses of the meaning) even though I was on my best behaviour and what has happened since?
Well not much, our great leader has got even techier but is still paid his full time salary, we're in a period of profound non communication which the optimists read as nearing a deal but history suggests the opposite could be equally true.
I for one will be voting down all the resolutions come the AGM purely out of the desire to remind the big boys that we small people still exist and yes we'd like a bit more firm information after 18 months of *ugger all.
For me the excuse of commercial confidentiality is an excuse no more. I urge everyone else to do the same . Yes I know that it won't make much difference but they'll have the embarrassment of reading out percentages of resolution approvals of less than 99.9% which might, just might, stir them into communicating some worthwhile information this time.
Reading between the lines it looks like the controlling shareholder by cutting off the firm's access to cash is trying to push it into an artificial default. By doing so it could then cause the company to be liquidated and assets picked up at a song.
In short a heist that looks alarmingly like the sort of thing that would happen in pre ware Russia.
The oligarch wins we little shareholders lose.
We'll never know. Once SHG gets sold it and its accounts pass through a veil beyond which we mere mortals cannot see. The same goes for any envelopes brown or otherwise that might get passed from SHG new owners to obliging government ministers and officials.