RE: Money to be made here - a repeating strategy8 Mar 2021 11:25
Kitty - with respect to the patterns you describe over the previous year, it seems to me that in each case the sudden and material decline was due to a very major and unexpected bad news story (Times investigation, initial Covid panic, auditor quitting). So I’m not sure how valid the thesis is that the SP will repeat these cycles in the absence of another such extraneous bad news event (US banning imports could be one, but this is very unlikely as others have noted)? The SP hasn’t moved during a year of great growth and perfect macro environment re online sales growth etc, PE multiple now I think materially lower than a year ago and it just seems like it must catch up at some point in the absence of another such calamituous event. Genuinely interested in your thoughts. (Ps I think you referenced Petrofac as a good tip a while back - thanks for that, it has turned out pretty well with more to come I think).