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This is a big worry for me too and engenders the sort of urgency I have for us to develop assets fast and to get the SP moving stat. I feel like there is a relatively small window to really make hay, in the fossil fuel space, particularly in western countries, but I fear that it will be gone (demand wise, regulation wise, access to finance wise, and investor demand wise) quicker than we all think. North Sea oil, for instance, looks like it might well be a stranded asset very soon. Even in Canada there are risks, an Aussie thermal coal company I had a (very) small holding in had its asset pulled out from under it by regulatory change. First they came for my coal, and I did not speak out ... etc etc.
Well my sense is that they should maybe have launched the upcoming drilling campaign sooner, used at least some (even small) amount of debt for the Cenovus acquisition (but ok let's not get into that!), and Majid should have bought some shares to send the message that he is more clearly aligned with shareholders (I do get a sense of some misalignment or perception of misalignment e.g. triggering the award of share options for increasing BOPD even if dilutive to existing shareholders). Maybe also a small share buyback to signal to the market that we are undervalued. I know they have been stepping their PR exercise up, but also to do more to raise the company's profile in the market, sooner. Frankly, perhaps they also should have taken Doc's calls (he says they weren't). I'm sure you can cogently refute all of these points Tony, but at the end of the day if a SP remains perpetually undervalued then management have to take some responsibility for this, even if their good work also undoubtedly played, along with commodity prices, a v big role in creating the value which is not evident in the share price now. But you're right in that they have done a good job on many levels, which I guess is just adding to my frustration that this is not being borne out in the SP.
I'm in the same position - way overinvested already. Really staggered that I am almost back at break even point, I actually can barely believe it. No wonder Doc sold out. I feel like the BOD are not sufficiently incentivised by SP v. other targets like BOPD.
A lot of the articles are about Ingenuity though, which is well and truly valued at zero at these prices I would suggest. It’s not that they’re good questions, it’s just that at 175p odd the answer to all of them is already assumed to be in the negative basically. So it should be just upside really were the market functioning more logically here.
I wonder if they are facing a dilemma timing wise with respect to how much capital / debt to allocate to the expanded Canadian drilling campaign - if they have to go serenity alone then they will presumably that will curtail or change Canadian drilling plans (maybe increasing the necessity for a farm-in partner there?). So until they make or are forced by their potential Serenity farm-in counterpart(ies) to make this decision must be hard to cement Canadian capex plans.
I'm at almost 1.3m now and those words apply equally to me! The good thing is, I don't think that the current SP attributes much if any value to Serenity at all, so what would otherwise be a possible downside risk is really only upside at this stage. I think we are in a perfect position as a smallish producer with bigger fish increasingly being cajoled into exiting O&G, a lack of investment but O&G well and truly still needed for a few years yet. A great place to be.
Separate question - are there loans going for North Sea O&G drilling anymore? Seems like banks coming under (and at COP quickly bowing to) extreme pressure to not fund any new drilling?
You’re a headcase mate. A total absolute headcase. Seeing conspiracies everywhere!! I’m not the first one to allege this am I either? I’m 50% odd down still (see previous posts, which you seem to enjoy stalking - do you have a job??), so why the eff I would “FUD”. Sod off.
Nigel - I don't understand your comment re the "odd decision" - I thought that they were not going to rigless test MOU-1 at this stage, but rather wait to rigless test all three wells simultaneously post next drill? On the basis that it would be more cost-effective, restrictions on travel etc and also that they had seen enough from the initial results to push on with further drills (and also, might be wrong here but its my suspicion, because there is obviously a reasonable chance of a non-commercial result and that would render funding the next drills harder).
I think he means that the IIs held price sensitive info re the new acquisition obtained during the bookbuild for the cap raise, and so were prohibited from trading during that period. So they couldn't sell any excess shares into (and thus soften) the sharp SP spike.
I guess the worry is that they are incentivised to grow BOEPD even if such growth comes at a dilutive price to shareholders (and they are not yet major shareholders themselves). Perhaps a BOEPD per share metric would be more useful