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yet more conspiracy theories Calisto. personally I find it easier to believe in cock up theories than conspiracies. generally folk are not that clever or devious in my view. and the sp? more sellers than buyers is all!
bbva own turkeys largest bank. given history one would hope bbva are fully provided for their sub to fail, but I doubt they have no exposure. any turkish borrower taking currency loans is in big trouble. eg if they borrowed $10m they now owe $30m in local currency equivalent. usa banks are also exposed, hence dow shakeout.. turkey is not trivial.
quite agree Tom. but 2 of my 20 somethings pay so much rent they cant save any deposit, and have had debts. even with a good wage a.mortgage in south east enough for even a tiny flat is out of the question. unless Bank of Dad steps up to the plate. again. The well for many is dry.... but I do hope you are right....
why would you look at big utes. plenty else. I bought plus500 @550 a year ago. now 1930. usa online sports betting opening up at long last. lots of uk specialists to benefit. gvc ptec, gan,888,etc utes? no thanks
well of course thats what sensitivity analysis is!! you think my numbers too conservative. I thil your are fantasy. check back in 6 months.... others will use their own assumptions. I guess,'the city's closer to my numbers than yours. hence 170p heading gently south....
last year I believe tw sold 14400 homes to deliver £814m pre tax operating profit, or £56k per home sold. at results they acknowledged sales were down and cancellations up. if completions fall 10% to 12960, then 1440 x £56k will not be made. £80m. further if sales prices soften 2% from £287k then a further hit of £74m occurs. £154m of £814m. hmm. choose your own numbers, critique my math please but I suggest the f I sensitivity analysis is what is taking the sp down.
no unexpected I can think of, or they would be expected right?! expected are for the reasons I set out and you choose to ignore in favour of spurious supply and demand. lower completions of purchase are expected by many hence lower profits. easy eh?
you seem puzzled that pers dont influence sp. its because pers are seen through rear view mirror and investors are looking through the windscreen at the road ahead. They see increasing uncertainty for consumers which will impact their willingness to incur new debt. it matters not one jot that there is and always has been and will be, demand for housing. the only thing that matters is potential buyers willingness to take on new credit commitments for the long term. brexit brings employment uncertainty and forecast of exchange rates down to 1.10. so lower volumes =lower profit which,imo, makes an sp of 160 far more likely than Toms much vaunted 200. just hope he is kidding....
you may be right Johnson although now ftb are age 30+ they may be more canny? and although 1959 may not suit them, maybe 2000+ with all the snags worked out and still looking new, maybe with improvements such as conservatory and tasty gardens may tempt them....