Member Info for cm22

No it is not all just hope. Revenues are growing in all 4 companies. In Microsalt by a lot.

I do wonder if this shift to Guident moving to a private funding round is at least partly TEKs way of saying that the latest share placement hasn't gone well...

I think that discount to Microsalt is a measure of the cynicism towards Cliff. I wonder what would happen if he said tomorrow he would take more of a back seat? Also would be interesting if Guident were to successfully come to market. Would then be even more undervalued.

I see it as emotional selling. People are getting annoyed. Personally i have a great deal of patience so i will just let it play out. It is at very good risk/reward here now, even for a cynic.

I think technical analysis needs to be given more leeway for illiquid nano-cap stocks.

Yes, this isn't a Google message board but they seem to be downshifting their moonshot divisions. Not the innovating company it used to be.

I don't think it is all Cliff's fault. The UK seems poor in assigning value to stocks generally. As we saw with Currys and others:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2024/feb/29/uk-stock-market-isnt-working-undervaluation-wincanton-currys

I think this is also a wider issue as argued by David Einhorn, there are less investors concerned with value of companies and more momentum and other short term strategies:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/david-einhorn-says-markets-fundamentally-broken-by-passive-quant-investing

I have taken the view that BELL have been waiting for the deal to close to release the year end report. So maybe this week. That way they can talk about both in interviews with certainty. Decent numbers/outlook and the SP may establish more of an uptrend.

I don't know whether it is already too early to get excited by this new AI project but i am. Given the reputation of Alexander Mordvintsev and Deep Dream (A very successful project at Google), and how quickly these tech businesses can mushroom. If he could get a couple of genius programmers from MIT who have some interesting idea... Anyway, i think these are the right people to be able to identify talent and make things happen.

"• Tekcapital wishes to make an early-stage Gen AI investment, most likely in the UK. This investment will take the form of providing both strategic capital and operational support. Investment will be focussed on target markets where AI offers the opportunity to automate, improve productivity and streamline operations of an existing service business.

• Advisory Board: Tekcapital will be assisted by a team of experienced individuals including Dr. Russ Salahutdinov, a former director of AI at Apple Inc, Alexander Mordvintsev, a world renowned senior research scientist at Google LLC and inventor of Deep Dream, and Lord David Willetts, chairman of the UK Space Agency. "

This is the information i have on the AI company so far MrOzzy. So it seems that they have already identified the project.

Nice TopCatz.

Technical indicators are important especially when they support other factors.

I think what we have seen in the past is these dilutions have generally been a good opportunity to buy. It annoys people because it gives a big discount to preferred investors but in terms of the valuation it doesn't make a big difference. Should fill the gap back to 15p fairly easily.

Someone has been buying in big quantities late in the afternoon.

I was rereading Agricore's blog post about Microsalt from 2nd February in which he was suggesting that Revenues and earnings for 2024 could be as high as £80mill and £25mill respectively. While it is difficult to really get a true picture of order size i do think i have underestimated Microsalt. To get 0.5 tonnes per hour for just one line of Customer D as an initial really does open your eyes as to the scale of what is possible. Being on the inside of such massive companies like Pepsi(?) is advantageous because you don't need to go out trying to make new sales. Just need to expand it to the rest of the hundreds of lines within the company.

The only risk i can see is if sales of the new Pepsi product were to be hit. However, i tend to think that any negative impact would have already shown up in customer tasting. Thus, when we get those first orders complete and they are a success the expansion phase could really be extraordinary. The question you would have to ask yourself at that point is why wouldn't every food/drink manufacturer in the world not use Microsalt?

From the SP Angel report released today, some interesting new info on the new AI project:

"Tekcapital wishes to make an early-stage Gen AI investment, most likely in the UK. This investment will take the form of providing both strategic capital and operational support. Investment will be focussed on target markets where AI offers the opportunity to automate, improve productivity and streamline operations of an existing service business. • Advisory Board: Tekcapital will be assisted by a team of experienced individuals including Dr. Russ Salahutdinov, a former director of AI at Apple Inc, Alexander Mordvintsev, a world renowned senior research scientist at Google LLC and inventor of Deep Dream, and Lord David Willetts, chairman of the UK Space Agency. "

I don't have those charts available for TEK so i will trust your analysis.

It would also coincide nicely with the rate easing cycle, the April seasonal effect leading up to the yearly earnings release, anticipation of a new more optimistic government, and against a general backdrop of undervaluation.

Are you thinking of the moving averages TopCatz?

Https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/tekcapital-progresses-ai-investment-strategy-with-fundraise/

This too. I think this new AI venture will be something which will be a main focus in the next few months.

Of all the things that TEK have done, maximising their stake in Microsalt is perhaps the most pleasing.

How does that work Maximus? Do TEK go to these preferred investors and offer them shares at 10p, then those holders sell there existing holdings at 14p and buy the offering at 10p? Seems like a sham.

That Guident IPO looks more attractive at this point. I thought that they were looking to raise money from banks not through TEK.

I tend to think that Harold Braun is a much more credible figure than Cliff and it would be far preferable to raise money through an IPO. Hoping to hear that the IPO is coming this year.

Quite curious about this new AI business. I wonder when Cliff will do a Q&A. Feels like he is hiding.

I don't really get what 'bad news' could be. If they want to raise some money then they can sell BELL stake.

I have never been very impressed with the 'no exit strategy' idea. There are plenty of companies which have grown very quickly without paying a dividend. If you think about it then all early stage growth companies don't pay a dividend or buy back shares. Many of whom grow very well.

Hi Badsterman, my rationale is that people see things in narratives. They see Microsalt as this massively successful exciting new business going to the moon. And they see TEK as this kind of unconvincing company with a CEO who never appears and with 2 IPOs which went awry.

People don't view things in terms of numbers and valuations but in terms of narratives and 'vibes'. I think this is an extreme example of that.

Playing into this as well is the history of people invested in TEK and many of them are sitting on losses. I don't know how many times i have heard people saying that they will sell once they get back to even. So, they are displaying all these kinds of biases which don't make sense from a strictly investing point of view. SALT doesn't have this issue given that it has only ever gone up. I think this is what technical analysists mean when they say there is a lot of 'congestion'. Traders like to buy and sell around where they entered. The SP spent a lot of time in the 10-20p region (and more recently in the 15-20p region) and so you have a lot of difficulty getting through there. Once you get >20p there is more free air. Of course as time passes you get more people who bought in at lower levels who replace the older holders who are nursing losses and are more bitter.