The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Wulf definitely due a good run. Overpayment on loan expected in April from what they've advised. If you compare it with CIFR which is 1.3bil mcap (better balance sheet to be fair - but slightly less hash 7.4eh vs 8 wulf), you can see that this has room to run.
Got BTBT as well but think that will be a late bloomer, along with my beloved SLNH which will be last to run.
Interesting thread on Mara recent purchases - no idea if true or not:
https://twitter.com/Rex_Finance/status/1770473594734231786
Yeah agree - the scenario of miners going bankrupt on halving day just isn't going to play out. This is where I see a problem with Mara's post halving buying spree plans - I don't think they'll be getting the bargains they are expecting.
At last halving the network hash was around 100EH.
The XP was released in July 2022 if my google search was accurate at which time network has was around 200EH.
So this suggests there is circa 200EH of 30+ J/T machines are out there - which would be the targets for turning off.
Current network hash is just over 600EH.
However bitcoin price has doubled in the last 6 months which puts the whole switch off in doubt. Argo isn't going to turn their machines off. Probably most the 17 series will go off though. But with most miners buying new machines the hash that goes off will be replaced.
So I'd agree that the network hash probably won't take a big hit.
There are miners that are printing cash both pre and post halving in current price/network conditions and the market just isn't valuing them. The whole sector has taken a beating. Q4/Annuals probably haven't helped as it was a hard year for miners last year, but I suspect Q1's will make everything look a lot better.
Yeah suspect another raise is drafted awaiting the next mini run but the market knows this and has moved elsewhere. Only a strong BTC run will bring in new money. Otherwise they'll need to issue more cheaply. On this occasion that is not in the ceo's interests as it would dilute his bonus.
They have a bunch of power credits according to the Q3, so effectively could mine for a quarter with half price electricity which would help out their cash balance. However their operating costs and interest payments are around 1 mil a month each. Maybe they save the power credits for post halving to keep them afloat longer.
All good bets. BTBT (Bit Digital) has an mcap near it's HODL+Cash value. Annual results out tonight - well undervalued. Should book a decent profit for the year. Whether market reacts though is anyone's guess.
Haha - yeah I just get tired of hearing how great Mara are when they clearly aren't. How temporary are these operational problems as that's two months now? Is Fred actually the best person for the job as he completely misread the cycle? Was the applied digital purchase a good buy if they needed Mara to supply credit to keep running?
Don't worry, I'm done with tribalism - I'll invest in pretty much any miner I see upside in but I tend to shy away from some of the redder flags. Mara is undervalued but these things put me off. However I think they'll get a short squeeze at some point so a well timed trade would do well.
Growth, ETFs are the driver of this cycle, and ETFs are still taking net inflows, so all is good just now - if that changed I'd be more worried. It is important to remember that most the bitcoin is held outside of ETFs though - so if other players want to move the price around they can. The 100 before halving is looking less likely now, but hopefully by the end of the week we are in a better place than the start of the week.
How many billions has Mara raised the last few years and what have they done with it? Is it worthy of any praise? Clearly not. Certainly would have been better off just spending the lot on bitcoin, they would have multiples of their hodl just now. Also Mara has some of the dumbest holders out there - the marapigs - hard to get on board with that.
They have roughly double the hash of CLSK, and 3 to 4x the hodl. They have more debt though. But overall they are undervalued vs Cleanspark and should be double the market cap. However their ATM will hold them back and ongoing hash problems causing major concern, especially while mining conditions are so great and just before the halving when they are effectively getting double revenue. One block mined on the 15th, and again the 16th. Two so far today. It's meant to be just one site down but think they are lying. Input costs far too high also. These are the reasons that Cleanspark has carried on forward while Mara has stood still.
However there are loads of other miners that are far undervalued vs CLSK/Mara - so that's my main focus. If clsk gets parity with Mara I might swap some over as they'll probably run to 30 at some point soon - who knows.
Weird that Mara were covering credit for the 3rd party's site - although guess they were probably forced into it.
The Galaxy debt is down to 14 - maybe Argo closes off the debt with these machines to close the loan. The machines are no good to them after this as they are modified for immersion. Although they are stuck and can't tell this to the market if it is the case. Slim chance Galaxy allows them to continue hosting at less favourable rates.
Yeah saw that post. Mara has signaled to the market that asset light is not the way forward - and now have to buy up sites further wasting the ATM. They don't have expertise of running sites though. They would need to recruit a miner tech lead from one of the other companies I would think. Market has really turned on Mara and I think we see price parity of CLSK shares very soon. CLSK main issues are the very generous bonuses and the preference shares - but the miners all tend to do whatever they want anyway and really they need to think about shareholders a bit more.
Hedging the start of the bull run was unforgivable, converting the cheap debt was unforgivable, taking huge bonuses when operational issues have been ongoing, constant dilution for no real growth. They are a mess and need to sort out their hash issues fast. Is it the sites, is it an issue with the pool itself, who knows. Total waste of their privileged position.
CLSK have been clear with what they were going to do, and got on and did it successfully. I think Mara is due an uptick, but they need to sort their existing hash and need to conclude the ATM and do something useful with it. I personally think they are better to just buy some bitcoin with it.