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Https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/block_time/5y?f=m10&r=day&t=l
Block times back below 10 mins, I don't think we get any drop in network hash. Although makes sense with the fees making up most of the halving loss. Miner machine efficiency and electricity cost are key for miner success.
The next difficulty is not the true change, as it was mostly in the pre-halving period, so the real sense of network drop will be seen on the subsequent difficulty change, which will be around 2 weeks away. However tentatively I think we only get a 5% to 10% drop based on current rates of block production.
However the 1BTC plus fees just now are the unknown, if they stay at an average of 1BTC, then instead of 50% miner revenue post halving, it's more like 60-65% revenue - or ~20% more revenue than the market was expecting.
The market hasn't priced these elevated fees in, but whether they persist remains to be seen.
Now just need this HK ETF to go live to lift demand.
Yes good luck all, getting exciting again.
85 blocks since the halving which should be 8.5 hours, but here were are 16 hours later, so potentially hash has decreased more than I expected, but will know more over the coming weeks.
BTC has not been a P2P ecash system for many years now. Sure you can use layer 2 as a cash layer, but really it's digital gold/real estate/etc. has various use cases, but let's just call it a financial asset and not pretend it or any of these coins are going to replace the $.
Look at the fees column here
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/blocks
If you scroll back a bit you'll see how they suddenly jumped post halving because the runes protocol became live.
Fees were normally around .2 to .4 a block, so near 10% additional revenue on top of the new 3.125 reward would be fair to say - around 55% of pre halving revenue. However today we are seeing crazy fees far larger than the 3.125 reward, which few would have predicted.
MNS - I humbly admit I was wrong on my call. BTC did not gain new all time highs (74+) before halving since we had our gentleman's bet. The second part of the bet - CLSK is over $16, and feels likely it will stay over 16 by close Monday, gives me something to hang on to, but fundamentally I haven't called this right so admit that I was wrong on this. I do hope we start moving again soon though, and hopefully your trade plan comes together - best of luck!
Mara finally mined a block - 19.6 BTC. They may have played a blinder with this Slipstream or whatever it is - need to re-read it to understand it. But will need a few more blocks to verify. Read in conjunction with red rag's link regarding the bidding war issue.
https://x.com/jimmysong/status/1781518918001078441?s=46&t=b5w5XhS1rL5_nwa_nVQ15g
https://mempool.space/mining/pool/marapool
Good article - fascinating. A month or two if this would be incredible. Would really help debt ridden miners and boost the sector. If combined with BTC price going up and markets turning risk on we could have a perfect storm and exit opportunity.
Spitfire the issue is that BTC could go on a bull run but Argo could still go bankrupt, being on BTC itself is safer and more likely to give you a return. Argo overvalued at this point if you compare to similar peers.
On the halving reward, it's not 50% because fees are not 0. It's more like 55%, and if network hash drops 10% then more again. See fees column:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/blocks