Member Info for clissold345

Capacity is now 753MW but I'm expecting lower rates again. I'm expecting ERCOT rates to be poor again. I'm expecting CAISO rates to be disappointing. At a guess, weighted average less than £70K/MW/yr?

FY 24/25 was as follows:

GB £65K/MW/yr

Island of Ireland £127K/MW/yr

Germany £118K/MW/yr

Texas £49K/MW/yr

Weighted average £86K/MW/yr

GRID report UK rates of £75k/MW/Yr on 2-hour assets, so GSF should be able to get at least those rates for UK assets whose duration they extend to 2-hour. And GRID say "third-party forecasters are anticipating 2028 [UK] merchant revenue levels for 2-hour assets of c.£90k/MW/Yr". However, as far as I'm aware, the third-party forecasters have often been unreliable in the past! So don't believe what they say?

Modo Energy say this: "​Merchant revenues for CAISO’s grid-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) increased 7.3% month-over-month, coming in at $2.5/kW for the month of August 2025. Year-on-year, total revenues from Energy arbitrage and Ancillary Services fell 39.5%, from a base of $4.14/kW in August 2024."

$2.5/KW in a month translates to $30K/MW/year. Big Rock is 200MW. So that would be $6M in a year.

I'm not much interested in the NAV calculation but I'm pleased they've given some operational info. What about giving the rates (UK, Ireland, ERCOT, CAISO, Germany) every quarter? They don't say when they onboarded the ERCOT assets. "Year to date outperformance over Modo is currently at c.20% (£7.45/MW/hr against £6.22/MW/hr)." Every little helps! ERCOT rates were poor in August 2025 (says Modo Energy).

@alibaba42 Thanks for the info on how to look up BESS rates. I'll have a look - I did used to look up GB rates on bessanalytics - but (as I said) I think I'm locked out of what bessanalytics turned into (because I don't have a company email address). If the rates are easy to look up, I'm happy to post them here every few months.

@alibaba42 Is there a way of looking up the rates in the different regions? bessanalytics.com used to give some info on GB rates - but I believe it's moved and I need a company email address now in order to use it. Modo Energy gives limited info on rates for free. I see this about ERCOT: "Battery energy storage systems (BESS) in ERCOT are expected to earn $3.97/kW-month in August 2025, a 47% drop from last year ...". That sounds bad for GSF! Is there a way to look up ERCOT, CAISO, GB, Irish BESS rates - instead of waiting for Modo Energy to give out snippets?

Alibaba42 and the Oak Bloke (on substack) often seem to make sense. If it was up to me I'd sack the investment manager (even with the fee reduction in October they will still be much too expensive for what they'll be doing). I'd put GSF into "caretaker" mode (with a low-cost caretaker manager simply increasing the duration of a few of the GB assets, as proposed in the review). GSET makes a profit at present so I'd want that to continue. (The Board seem to add little value to GSF but they are much less expensive than the investment manager.) Then "caretaker" GSF pays dividends for ten years, and shareholders are (hopefully) fairly happy.

As someone said on here in July: GSF is set up as a merchant fund, with a low portion of contracted revenue. GSF will have good years and bad years. The dividend will never be zero. If you want a reliable dividend payer, you should not be invested in GSF!

Meet the Board and ask questions:

"The Company's Board of Directors will provide a live presentation via Investor Meet Company on 30 July 2025, 14:30 BST.

The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted at any time during the live presentation."

@alibaba42 Thanks for your thoughts. Regarding Big Rock annual revenue, it sounds like my figure is not unreasonable as a minimum. GSF have real-time data but they may not say anything about CAISO rates/revenue until the Interims.

@alibaba42. Do you know what the total annual revenue from Big Rock is likely to be? Big Rock is 200MW. 200MW at £49K/MW/yr (the current Texas rate) would £9.8M, plus $14M from the contract?

@TheTrotsky. Dogfish (75MW) could be worth a lot of money to GSF. Dogfish revenue at FY 23/24 rates = £15M.

Brandt Vermillion, the ERCOT market lead at Modo Energy believes the special conditions in ERCOT that produced the FY 23/24 rates still apply, so it's not unreasonable to hope for the FY 23/24 rates again. I hope it happens in FY 25/26!

If the GSF share price sinks in August and Sept that may indicate that ERCOT rates are low. Analysts will have access to real-time ERCOT rates - but I suspect GSF won't release any info on their ERCOT rates until the Interims.

Thanks. It's good to have a minimum figure from the people who should know.

(Paula Travesso - Managing Director - Gore Street Capital)

FY 24/25:

GB £65K/MW/yr

Island of Ireland £127K/MW/yr

Germany £118K/MW/yr

Texas £49K/MW/yr

Weighted average £86K/MW/yr

FY 23/24:

GB £77K/MW/yr

Island of Ireland £182K/MW/yr

Germany £80K/MW/yr

Texas £200K/MW/yr

Weighted average £133K/MW/yr

Texas rates in FY24/25 are a quarter what they were the previous year. Dogfish (in Texas) will be a poor investment? Irish rates have fallen but of the four districts they're still the best rates. German rates are well up (but GSF's German assets are only 22MW). What are the California rates?

Just a reminder that this is the (very quiet) board for Great Portland Estates (GPE). The last RNS of note seems to be this: "91% customer retention on Fully Managed renewals" (April 2025).

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/great-portland-estates--gpe/91-customer-retention-on-fully-managed-renewals/8848008

Last year they declared the Q4 dividend on 20th June.

@Temple_of_Doom. I pretty much agreed with you. I posted this yesterday "... Without the tax credits GSF certainly won't be paying a 4p Q4 dividend" but Therosy1 replied "Dividends have been coming out of Capital Reduction Reserve ...". He seems to mean that GSF can afford a 4p Q4 dividend. So which view is correct?

@Therosy1. Thanks for trying to explain. I might do some accounts homework. (I understand about the company having a certain value if all the assets were sold. It sounds like the Capital Reduction Reserve doesn't exist in the same sense that cash exists?)

@simonm. I'll have to do homework if I want to understand share premium reserve, merger reserve, capital reduction reserve, etc. I don't understand. Did they really have £331.3M in some form at 30th Sept 2024, as stated in the Interims?

@Therosy1. My knowledge of accounts is basic. Possibly Capital Reduction Reserve just means money undrawn within their borrowing facilities? Perhaps someone more knowledgeable than me could explain?