Member Info for cl2201

Beautiful figures and long may it continue.

I use slightly more conservative production figures (10k/month) but even that that yields $8.5m @ $850 USD AISC ($1,700 USD GP).

I'm not sure he will have changed his mind in 6 months (being the last time he explicitly mentioned it in an interview).

I assume you are unaware of the investment structure here.

To clarify, ANS (Ethiopian investment syndicate) are investing 38m USD (11.4m USD first tranche) in TKGM. TKGM is essentially the Tulu Kapi project company setup to develop the mine - we (Kefi plc) will have an interest of 45% in TKGM. The investment by ANS is therefore at the project level and not in Kefi plc - no shares in Kefi plc will be issued to ANS and therefore there will be no dilution from that side.

My thoughts exactly.

With both reports complete the next step will presumably be presenting them to ANS - not sure exactly what 'satisfactory completion of the independent reviews' means from their perspective with regard to what ANS require to release funds, but I assume there will be engagement between the two parties before that happens.

My take is that provided the content of the reports is in line with expectations then realistically early to mid-October for release of funds, though potentially an update at the end of this month on proceedings.

I don't mind a couple of extra weeks as long as this event occurs.

Not sure if it was the original poster who posed the question to KEFI, but the following Q&A was added to the KEFI Q&A page today:
Q: What is production profile for Tulu Kapi? I don’t mean what is bankable, but you are planning to do?
A: First full production year 160K oz from open pit and start the underground mine in or about third year of production to lift it towards 200K oz pa.

September could be a company-making month if everything comes through as anticipated.

Reports due: first at the end of August and the second mid-September. Closing of the first tranche from ANS after said reports released > likely end of September.

Drilling in Hawiah > could be interesting.

This is KEFI so a large pinch of salt and the patience of a saint is required, however, plenty to look forward to.

I think you need to read the RNS again.

'ANS Mining has confirmed its first instalment of US$11.4 million (Ethiopian Birr equivalent) will be released to trigger community resettlement and other development tasks, upon the satisfactory receipt of the aforementioned updated independent reviews'.

I'm assuming it was a buy given the bid-offer prices throughout the day. Amazing price for them if it was. Not far off 2% of the company in one trade.

It was specific to one region (Amhara), which is no way near Tulu Kapi, and has been dealt with already. Given that this is Ethiopia it would take a lot more than that for it to have any impact on KEFI.

That isn't the real spread.

An example using 100k shares: 1.56 to sell and 1.65 to buy.

You are certainly correct that both regional and federal government are involved, but they are for two separate items which we are waiting on - hopefully both this quarter.

The regional government should (hopefully) trigger community resettlement at the end of this quarter, provided security etc. is all settled.

The federal government, or I should say the Prime Ministry, needs to sign off on the last item from their side which is ratification/endorsement of the project finance structure set out with the central bank. Once this occurs the bond issue can finally happen, or at least push it along to the next step.

Because of the changes in the regional government's administration and security structure.

I'm not sure exactly what you mean here, but to reiterate, the Ethiopian mining reform and the triggering of resettlement are separate from one another. The recent changes to the admin and security structure I believe you are referring to are at the regional government level and not linked to the mining reforms.

I'm saying there is no link between the Ethiopian mining industry reform and the triggering of resettlement - your timelines seemed to suggest there was?

I think any reform should effect us positively as the minister mentioned a small reduction in royalty/tax payments but I shouldn't think too drastic.

That was @dsrt2012

I think you're confusing reform of the Ethiopian mining industry with the triggering of resettlement. They are two separate items being handled by two separate entities.

for the persistent selling over the past week or so. Hopefully a good amount of the placing has been forward-sold.

When you say the 'delay has nearly obliterated the sp' are you referring to the proposed investment by ANS when the local government trigger the resettlement? Since December the SP has actually increased.

I'm not sure why you reference Harry in resettlement matters - it has been mentioned in news statements and on this board (numerous times) that he has no part to play in the current proceedings as far as resettlement is concerned. He can kick and scream all he wants but it is purely and simply down the local government to trigger when they see fit.

Looks like you may need to buy a few more for that to happen. Those early trades this morning suggest the seller is still around.

We won't receive an RNS saying Lanstead are out (they last notified below 3%) - we will just stop seeing round AT trades all the time as well as a likely uplift in SP as the resistance from persistent selling will have gone.